The government is about to tell you that schools are safe

[noblegiraffe]

It's being reported that the government are about to embark on a two week PR campaign claiming that schools are safe. We've already seen hints of it in that Warwick report that was widely misreported as showing schools don't fuel community transmission (majorly pissing off the author who advocates a cautious return to schools).

The ONS random sampling survey graphs released today are amazing. They show a huge reduction in the infection rates due to lockdown, but the most incredible reduction is in the infection rate of secondary school children. They've gone from being the most infected subset of the population by far, to the 2nd least (behind 70+). It's clear that despite arguments that secondary kids were catching covid out of school (sleepovers, hanging around in parks etc), this just isn't true and the lack of mitigation measures in secondary schools allowed covid to run riot.

We can't re-open in the same way as in September. That would be madness. I know that people will say that it's fine, vulnerable people are being vaccinated and kids don't get it badly BUT what is not acknowledged is that kids aren't being vaccinated, a lot of their teachers won't be by March 8th, nor their parents and so we still need to keep infection levels down. In addition, rampant covid is incredibly disruptive to education. Teachers off for weeks, kids off isolating, some kids in, some kids out...Sept to Dec was a mess that we should be trying our best to avoid repeating. Vaccinations don't address that issue at all.

Community levels are low, but then they were low in September. Pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops are shut now, but we want to be able to open them. We cannot rely on community levels remaining low to stop covid getting into schools and proliferating.

We need to be careful, because certainly secondary schools aren't safe to re-open in a Big Bang gung-ho way that some are advocating, particularly with a more transmissible variant in circulation. Remember to the week before Christmas when school attendance plummeted in Kent and London? In one LA, secondary attendance was at 17%. And yet the DfE decided to threaten schools that wanted to close early to stop the spread with legal action. The schools were right, and the DfE was wrong. Gavin Williamson can't be trusted to have sensible conversations about safety, he's more interested in bully-boy tactics and setting himself up in opposition to teachers and schools.

What can be done? I think there is room to open schools in some way on March 8th. My personal preference (and I'm no spokesperson for teachers here, other opinions will vary) would be primaries back and exam years back for three weeks, then Easter can be used to examine the impact of the full primary re-opening . I'm not sure that school is such a major factor in transmission at primary as it is at secondary for various reasons, however I'm sure that my primary colleagues have their own ideas about what needs to be done there. If full primary re-opening looks untenable, then I would prefer rotas to only certain year groups in. Some school for all pupils would be better than all school for some pupils as we had last year.

Secondary is a different kettle of fish and should be treated separately. Secondaries were a massive risk for transmission. The word 'bubble' should never be used in reference to secondary schools again, as 'bubble' means a group of people who all have to isolate if one of them catches covid, which went in the bin in secondary around the end of September. There are some easy wins in secondary -
Masks in classrooms would be easy and cheap to implement. Exemptions would apply and clear ones could be provided where necessary for lip reading.
A national programme to improve ventilation.
Testing and isolation of any contacts where positive cases are found to flush out asymptomatic pupils (PCR not LFT).
Moving quickly to remote learning where there are outbreaks instead of trying to keep year groups in and schools open as covid works its way through - the attendance just before Christmas in some schools meant kids would have been better served educationally if they were all at home.

Home LFT testing of kids - I'm not convinced tbh, maybe in addition to above measures, but certainly not instead of them.

So if the government messaging is as it has been: schools are safe and no additional measures to contain the spread in secondary are needed then they are lying and our kids deserve a more consistent and sustainable education than they got from September.

Fingers crossed they are more sensible than we have previously seen.

@noblegiraffe In our village the naughtiest thing this whole time was a VE Day street party when all the 70plus types got pissed and forgot all about social distancing. Nothing put on the village Facebook page because we are all too respectful (silently fuming as we are, as a community, trying to keep them safe.) Fast forward to the summer and some youths were using a basketball net and playing music and happened to be a bit sweary when chatting to each other - 500 bloody posts slagging them off on the Facebook page. Poor things what the hell are they supposed to do for fun these days?!

Schools are safe

...it’s just the people mixing in them that are a problem.

Why would you need teachers vaccinated?

Didn’t say they needed to be.

#usforthem

Well at least you are being honest.

What about mitigation measures?

Jaw hit the floor earlier when I read there's now talk of vaccinating WFM 40 yr olds ahead of teachers, police etc in their 30s

Vulnerable people have been vaccinated

It’s very mild in most people

Can’t wait till nine go back to school and not can they

Hear hear @noblegiraffe, and @MrsHamlet re the money issue.

I’m a pregnant primary teacher with a DP at the wrong end of his 40s. I’d still like all year groups back, but I think a week on week off system would help prevent the yo-yo of isolations. As would masks in classrooms (yes, most NT children can cope with this, as demonstrated by many other countries) and just SOME investment from government re cleaning/supply/ventilation costs.

My class had less than 50% of the last half term in school before Christmas, thanks to repeated positive tests amongst the children - and that’s in a rural area. That can’t be the case again. We need mitigation measures and we need them now.

Wish people wouldn’t post arguments that I’ve already responded to in my OP.

Vulnerable teachers have been vaccinated.

Secondary, all to wear masks, NO EXEMPTIONS. I cannot understand how we seem to be unable to do something so simple. Other countries have mandatory mask wearing for all, even small children. No-one spontaneously combusts, or collapses, or runs around screaming. If everyone does it, it becomes the norm. France is a good example, and they don't even allow parents to home educate. I would love to know how they manage that.

@noblegiraffe

The excuse always seems to be money. Why has not a single penny been invested in education whereas the magic money tree is coughing up for every other sector?

This has been the case with this government for the last ten years. Education has been badly hit by funding cuts, redundancies, reduction in provision and was pretty much on its knees before this. The pandemic has really highlighted how reluctant the govt are to spend any money on it.

In which case, as parents perhaps we need to be shouting loudly about this. And demanding answers from our MPs and asking the journalists to ask these questions in the briefings etc.

There seems to be so much money that they're handing out left right and centre to all their mates yet using this money for additional buildings would a) keep these centres/community halls afloat and therefore retaining income/jobs b) help primary school parents with their ability to work and therefore balance the economy and c) most importantly of all help children regain their education.

Surely in the long run, it's cheaper than paying out for hundreds of thousands of people who are furloughed due to childcare?!

I largely agree with this.

The one thing I would really like to see considered is a rota system for secondary so they can go back in before Easter. I simply do not understand the all or nothing approach.

Both my Y8 daughter and I would take even a day a fortnight right now.

My year 11 and 13 need to be back. Despite hit and miss online learning I believe they're both under performing, and so to salvage anything of the year, exam years need to be taught face to face so assessed grades are based on better work than I suspect most are currently producing.
Masks in class. Then if their mate opposite tests positive, you don't have to send home anyone within a 2 metre radius. That's how it works with staff in the NHS (myself included) with flimsy masks negating the need for self isolation despite a positive contact.
dipdips I agree. And my PIL who won't live long enough to suffer long term or pay for any of this, still not following the rules.

Primary here. I think that seeing primary as a 'lesser issue' is potentially shortsighted.

Because so many primary pupils are in school - and also perhaps because for childcare reasons they may mix more than older pupils, who can stay home alone - they currently have the second highest prevalence of infection (REACT study). That yellow line on the age graph isn't too heartening, either.

This reservoir of infection means that there is potentially less time before primaries start seeing the kind of 'Covid hokey-cokey' that was such a feature of last term.

Yes, the existence of smaller bubbles in primary in theory means that these infections do not have the same devastating effect in terms of numbers of children sent home, but that ignores siblings, after school childcare and other contact networks that spread throughout a school community. Equally, the very intense close contact for many hours that is characteristic of primary means that spread of infection within a bubble, including to the adults, may be greater.

Personally, I think the benefits of being in school, to R-Y2 (as in NI, Wales and Scotland) make their return on 8th March worth it, with any staff who are over 50 or CV who have not yet been vaccinated being substituted for younger or less vulnerable teachers. I am not as convinced for Y3-Y6.

I really dislike the hyperbole.
I don't think I've ever heard anyone actually suggest sacrificing children. That would be somewhat ridiculous, wouldn't it?

@PurpleHoodie

"The government is about to tell you that schools are safe"

For the majority of children/youth they are: Covid, or otherwise.

So before Christmas as @noblegiraffe says, the year 11-16s were the highest % infected in the country.

Presumably, we think this is undesirable?

Personally, I think we should be following WHO advice on making schools places where kids are less likely to catch covid.

Where "place unlikely someone catches covid" means "safe", in this context.

@pinkunicornwithacatonitsback When I asked our council about the building thing at the end of the last lockdown they said it was down to toilet issues?!!!! WTF.

Schools should all be open on Monday in my view

Great, are you going to come and spend 15 hours replanning and resourcing all of my lessons for next week, so they are suitable for in class learning?

We had a large covid outbreak at my primary school in December. We have staff still off now. I was off for a while. I think if we had had LFT then it may not have spread so rapidly.
Bubbles were working well but only if everyone- staff and families follow rules outside of school, not having sleepovers/parties/play dates. We still have families catching covid now- some bubbles have popped even in lockdown.

We really do need to think about vaccinating school staff as well so that they aren’t in and out of school with illness; as the stress of supply teachers coming in and out won’t help children’s education either.

Money does need to be invested in developing spaces and staffing. £70 odd per child isn’t really going to make any difference is it? It needs to be prioritised to schools where deprivation is higher.

I’m desperate to get back to work properly, I hate working from home. I truly feel that the majority of children are actually really engaging in the offer we have put together and, yes there will be some lost learning, but actually nowhere near as much as last time- we see most children daily on meetings or tutorials if they are not in school.

Quick question - what is/are the major differences between what you're suggesting (for secondary schools) and what went on in September? The only thing I can see is the masks?

Oh and the testing which I think the gov have already implemented?

@Wnikat

Vulnerable teachers have been vaccinated.

Locally - and we are a region where vaccinations are well advanced - those over 70 and the CEV have been vaccinated.

Those who are CV and / or in the age groups most likely to be working in schools (50 - 65 year olds, though some staff are older) have not yet been vaccinated (the first I know of is to be vaccinated at the end of this weekend), and now have less than the 3 weeks necessary for immunity to develop before the date mooted for school return.

"The government is about to tell you that schools are safe"

And for the vast majority of students and teachers they are safe.

Even if cases do increase, most of the vulnerable people in society will have been vaccinated.

The cost to society of keeping schools closed any longer needs to be considered too.

I agree with what you are saying and it's what's happening in Scotland NI and Wales - already

Taking that into account I'm not sure he'll really fly solo and open whole scale ... but then again he might

I've not been vaccinated. 53, heart issues but not enough to make group 6. I will NOT be going back until I have a vaccine now.

cant the ONS disagrees with REACT about primary infection rates, not sure why. ONS has always shown that primary infection rates didn’t increase in the same way as secondary and were less affected by half term closures so it seemed to me that school wasn’t as big a factor for them (they also have much smaller bubbles and were isolating properly which might help).

In terms of the Hokey Cokey, again, primary school attendance rates were far better than secondary.

The yellow line went mad before Christmas but it’s not entirely clear why.

I think we should wait until after Easter. It is three more weeks of home schooling then the holidays. Although extremely difficult for everyone I think it is the only way to avoid another lock down further down the line.