Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thanks for the new thread

Thank you for the new thread. Let’s hope the number of infected people continues to shrink.

The news from Israel about therapy to prevent the cytokine storm sounds very promising.

Thank you.

Thank you for the new thread!

thx :)

Thanks for the thread!

Thank you for the thread. I tend to lurk but I have found the data reassuring - even at times when the data hasn't been particularly reassuring!

Good news about Israel.

www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/nhs-test-and-trace-performance-tracker

Having caught Matt Hancocks stats on test and trace last night, I tried to find the positive reporting of it. Of course because it's good news, no-one has reported it, but here is a nice tracker to show how well it is now performing in comparison to historical issues.

@BigWoollyJumpers
Skewing what you expect to find by "looking for positive reporting" is very strange in my world. No judgement, just sayin'..

Without saying anything about the actual numbers ... The reason why I find this to be a fairy tale is because it doesn't address why the sudden great performance. When we have a service that has terrible numbers for months the minimum is that we need to address why the change has happened. Without evidence of why it changed -at least in my line of work- stakeholders just tell you to bugger off and make up numbers on your own time.
I even went as far in searching for an answer as clicking/reading the long article of the journey, but no more clarity.

btw.. did you know:
"This has changed from 27 January 2021. Confirmatory PCR testing has been temporarily removed for LFD tests taken at general public test sites due to the high prevalence of coronavirus infections in England. This means confirmatory PCR testing will no longer be required and a positive LFD test result will trigger the start of contact tracing. Confirmatory PCR testing will continue for NHS England staff, adult social care, primary school teachers and hauliers."
Source

and to clarify my prev post: I'm happy if the contacted % is going up as long as it is a real improvement and not just someone giving the numbers a good do-over.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@BigWoollyJumpers
Skewing what you expect to find by "looking for positive reporting" is very strange in my world. No judgement, just sayin'..

Without saying anything about the actual numbers ... The reason why I find this to be a fairy tale is because it doesn't address why the sudden great performance. When we have a service that has terrible numbers for months the minimum is that we need to address why the change has happened. Without evidence of why it changed -at least in my line of work- stakeholders just tell you to bugger off and make up numbers on your own time.
I even went as far in searching for an answer as clicking/reading the long article of the journey, but no more clarity.[/quote]
It's been quite widely reported that they've changed how they're recording reaching close contacts in the same household, e.g.:

www.google.com/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-test-trace-suddenly-hits-23182362.amp

I think this actually makes a lot more sense - if me, DH and my two year old were close contacts it is mad to insist on making an extra phone call for the toddler, and to count it as a failure if you don't, and it's less mad but still silly to insist on contacting DH and I separately - but it does mean that the figures from before and after this change aren't really comparable.

Good spot sun. I still remain slightly confused about lft testing. Local news the other night had a brief clip of our Director of Public Health answering a few Qs about rapid testing and the last one was ""just to be clear, you don't need to isolate with this type of test" but it seemed to cut her off - presumably the advice is that of course you isolate if it's positive?! I don't understand what "isolate" would otherwise refer to though if the results are within a couple of hours?

New thread, and some (ok a little) good data news about. The Israel stuff looks very promising, I know Southampton were looking at inhaled treatments. I will have a search later and see if they are finding anything interesting.

If anyone is in touch with BigChoc it would be lovely to have another German perspective update, likewise from anyone here who knows about other countries in depth. It is good to have a world view (or continental) of things occasionally. It helps frame where we are in the UK, apart from nailing vaccination, so far. It would be interesting to understand how much sequencing other countries are able to do and what it is showing as regards mutations. It appears the Tyrol has issues again. ☹️

In personal definitely not data news, 69 year old MIL is getting jabbed tomorrow - am very pleased, and presumably it means they are indeed ramping up in our area. We were absolutely bottom of the country for vaccine delivery, but her invite followed very quickly on heels of FIL's (73) last week so I guess they've sped up!

twitter.com/drericding/status/1358916234650275848?s=21

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@BigWoollyJumpers
Skewing what you expect to find by "looking for positive reporting" is very strange in my world. No judgement, just sayin'..

Without saying anything about the actual numbers ... The reason why I find this to be a fairy tale is because it doesn't address why the sudden great performance. When we have a service that has terrible numbers for months the minimum is that we need to address why the change has happened. Without evidence of why it changed -at least in my line of work- stakeholders just tell you to bugger off and make up numbers on your own time.
I even went as far in searching for an answer as clicking/reading the long article of the journey, but no more clarity.[/quote]
Well I have to balance your consistent trawl for bad news sun .

@Yummyoldbag
Dr John Campbell does regular summaries of other countries on his daily broadcasts, particularly Denmark and USA. His presentations are very easy to follow.

.

Is anyone aware of any analysis around the anticipated dynamics of B117 and B1351 where they are circulating together?

Or any analysis looking at immunity to B1351 acquired from exposure to B117?

Or related issues!

I think people tend to extrapolate their personal dislike to Dido Harding to the whole test & trace system. They also tend to repeat misleading headlines (e.g. "test & trace cost us $22bln and most of all has gone to Serco") without checking any of the eye catching messages. Of course, these claims are completely wrong but it does not matter. Most of T&T critics will never admit their mistakes.

I believe the test and trace system actually works pretty well. We might have wasted too much money in the process but we have got to the reasonable end result. The weakest link now is the isolation requirement but this is driven by behavioural reasons. Instructing people to self-isolate for 10 days is a pretty big ask. Even people who claim they will do it start having second thoughts on days 6 or 7. The reason why so many of continental European countries switched to the 7 day self-isolation with testing is to increase compliance. Cutting the period from 14 to 10 days was the first step here but I still think we need to look at alternative options.

Thanks for the new thread

@ATieLikeRichardGere

Is anyone aware of any analysis around the anticipated dynamics of B117 and B1351 where they are circulating together?

Or any analysis looking at immunity to B1351 acquired from exposure to B117?

Or related issues!

I have been trying to find info on this but failed. If the UK variant is suppressed by vaccination (as appears likely), does that give the SA variant more of a chance to take a hold? Or doesn't it work like that?

Thank you for these threads, they are very useful and interesting

Is anyone aware of any analysis around the anticipated dynamics of B117 and B1351 where they are circulating together?

I think it is too early to say but scientists seem to be discussing it right now.

Some of the JVT's comments yesterday were quite interesting. I really like the guy because he is a very clear communicator who is also very precise with his messaging. Here is what I have taken away:

• Both B117 and B1351 are equally transmissible so in the short run B1351 is not expected to surpass B117;
• People should continue with their vaccinations because all the approved vaccines are effective against B117;
• As vaccination rates increase and B117 prevalence falls there is risk that B1351 might spread out further but by that time we should hopefully have vaccine boosters (if needed).

Thanks @wintertravel1980

I also found this mobile.twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1355689990487896065
which discusses the issue

He seems to suggest that B1351 may not be equally transmissible - not sure if that’s out of date

And also that B1351 is expected to be an issue -hypothesised- where there is high population immunity

I’m not sure I quite follow all the logic

I found (but then lost, on the last thread I think) the evidence on effectiveness for a longer than 3 week gap between doses of Pfizer. Does anyone have it to hand?