Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Loftyloft

Whilst not fully complete, Monday positives by specimen date are showing a much smaller jump than we usually get... is this the impact of vaccination in addition to lockdown now?

It's been really really snowy over vast amounts of the country since Sunday. I'm not sure I could currently get out of our village (Durham area) if I needed to and takeaways are closing for deliveries this evening so it's not just me being a wuss. Whereas normally I would try to get a test no matter what if one of the kids were to start a fever tonight then unless they looked serious no way in hell would I be trying to get a test right now.

This is something important to remember next week when I suspect numbers will spring up again. Think of this week as an extended weekend effect.

There was a lot of snow a couple of weeks ago and we had the same concerns but they didn’t seem to come to anything. And on a positive note, it might mean more people stay at home which can only help.

Hopefully the Govt/testing system will have had enough foresight to increase the availability of home testing kits (and pickup/drop off if required) for the areas experiencing exceptionally bad weather over those areas relatively unaffected

I think it’s going down. Virus tests completed are up by 1% overall but cases are going down.

Covid messenger only 7 areas rising currently and they are mostly in areas with low cases by 100,000 overall.

@Notmulan

I think it’s going down. Virus tests completed are up by 1% overall but cases are going down.

This sounds good

What do people make of this story www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-german-nursing-home-sees-outbreak-after-vaccines/a-56491823 ?

14 residents at an old people's home in Germany tested positive at the end of last week, despite having received 2 doses of Pfizer - although the 2nd dose was only 2 weeks ish ago. Nobody got seriously ill which is excellent news, but 14 cases feels like a lot?

@Duckchick

What do people make of this story www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-german-nursing-home-sees-outbreak-after-vaccines/a-56491823 ?

14 residents at an old people's home in Germany tested positive at the end of last week, despite having received 2 doses of Pfizer - although the 2nd dose was only 2 weeks ish ago. Nobody got seriously ill which is excellent news, but 14 cases feels like a lot?

It’s very good no one got seriously ill, it’s working well in that way. I’d be interested to know which variant it is.

@Duckchick

What do people make of this story www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-german-nursing-home-sees-outbreak-after-vaccines/a-56491823 ?

14 residents at an old people's home in Germany tested positive at the end of last week, despite having received 2 doses of Pfizer - although the 2nd dose was only 2 weeks ish ago. Nobody got seriously ill which is excellent news, but 14 cases feels like a lot?

Isn't this one of the things we talked about when AZ's results came out? Pfizer didn't test regularly, so would not have caught asymptomatic cases in its numbers. Also elderly people have a lower immune response to vaccines.

I believe older people need 4 weeks to get max antibodies after 2nd jab? As opposed to 3 for younger people.

Also, this is why as many people need to be jabbed as possible to reduce the chance of being infected?

That Germany nursing home...
Says they had UK (Kent) variant, B1.1.7
They got 2nd jab 25th Jan.
Doesn't say when they tested positive.
Does say none have been seriously ill in a way that implies the danger is thought to have passed.

So they didn't just test positive in last few days, they must have tested positive > 10 days ago.

If they tested positive on 26 Jan, they may have been exposed on 21 Jan or earlier. That might have been < 3 weeks after they got their first jab.

I seem to remember Germany has very strict privacy laws so we won't get more info about when they tested positive.

@Duckchick

What do people make of this story www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-german-nursing-home-sees-outbreak-after-vaccines/a-56491823 ?

14 residents at an old people's home in Germany tested positive at the end of last week, despite having received 2 doses of Pfizer - although the 2nd dose was only 2 weeks ish ago. Nobody got seriously ill which is excellent news, but 14 cases feels like a lot?

Sorry, I'm probably being really thick (so apologies again) but that's the point of the vaccine isn't it, to prevent serious Illness? Rather than to stop covid altogether. In that respect its doing what it's supposed to do, the fact that people have it is neither here or nor there if they are not getting seriously ill from it.

Re: German care home - it is not clear how big the care home is. 14 cases happened across residents and staff so it is possible than the denominator (the total number of people tested) is quire large (100+? Maybe, more?).

Re: timing of testing - looks like the first case was identified on February 2 with the second dose given "not later than January 25". This gives us an 8-12 days gap between the vaccine and the positive test:

www.euroweeklynews.com/2021/02/08/german-care-home-residents-test-covid-positive-after-getting-2nd-jab/

Pretty much all epidemiologists expect covid vaccines to both prevent serious illness and reduce transmission so, of course, the German case needs to be reviewed in more detail but I hope that we are talking about 14 cases in a relatively large group. Without the vaccine, the number of infections (including serious and potentially fatal cases) could have been much higher.

I don't understand the logic that snow would make there be more cases next week. People stay home more in the snow, so only their household contacts to infect, who they would infect anyway most likely (if it's Kent variant).

With some hefty rounding... Germany has about 9000 care homes and 900,000 care home residents. Average size 100 beds. Some will be much larger than others. The most vulnerable, who only got mild/moderate symptoms and as above likely within 4 weeks of the first vaccine. Care homes across all of Europe have had so very many deaths it's been awful. I'd say 14 non serious cases is actually a really very good outcome.

@MRex the snow thing is believing that cases haven't fallen as much this week as the figures suggest, therefore next week, when people should as likely to test for symptoms as they were in previous weeks, the numbers will increase compared to this week.

Anthony Costello worried about UK strategy:
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/10/support-self-isolation-uk-covid-vaccination-effort-virus-replicate-mutations-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR2GPV7NpDWEwjqWgOQybkbtQfbHk5CYbEw2DgJAH_K7H0c1qRGYyV1wRDc

Does anyone know if positive tests from all these door to door testing areas are counted in the daily figures?

I have been assuming they are but not sure

People deciding not to isolate isn't snow related. Someone with symptoms might decide not to go to get a test because it's snowing, but then they also aren't going anywhere else infecting anybody. So the chain still ends. My question is why people think the chain isn't ending because of snow.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

Does anyone know if positive tests from all these door to door testing areas are counted in the daily figures?

I have been assuming they are but not sure

I don't know if we know? I suppose as they're PCR tests, and some of the surge testing is actually at mobile units, there's no reason why they shouldn't be, imho....

MRex, I was talking about the issue of people not getting tests artificially deflating case figures, not about whether they isolated or not.

@MRex

People deciding not to isolate isn't snow related. Someone with symptoms might decide not to go to get a test because it's snowing, but then they also aren't going anywhere else infecting anybody. So the chain still ends. My question is why people think the chain isn't ending because of snow.

It puts the virus on ice until you go out again

Well apparently the frozen food idea works for the WHO

The Dashboard says this:

PCR tests test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 virus and include all lab-based pillar 1 and 2 tests and any PCR tests undertaken in pillar 4.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

Does anyone know if positive tests from all these door to door testing areas are counted in the daily figures?

I have been assuming they are but not sure

Well, I looked at Sefton (one of the areas being tested) and their PCR tests are up by 40% week-on-week, but positivity down - so I think they probably are? coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=ltla%26areaName=Sefton#card-weekly_number_of_people_receiving_a_pcr_test_and_positivity

Legally covid is a notifiable disease, so nobody would be allowed to knowingly exclude a positive result unless they are actively retesting. So yes, included. (How quickly could be another question, but test rates look to be up and cases in those areas, so I presume they are moving as fast as other testing.)

@JanFebAnyMonth - I got your point that it could artificially deflate test figures. If there's no onward transmission though, then there's no effect next week.

Lovely thank you

Anthony Costello's views are quite typical for "zero covid" proponents. This strategy may sound attractive in theory but I do not see how it can be feasible for a country like UK.

We are too connected to the continental Europe. Even if we close borders for tourists and business visitors and implement quarantine isolation for all overseas arrivals, what are we going to do with freight and the Irish border? What about asylum seekers and people crossing the channel illegally? The reality is the virus will get reintroduced into the country again, again and again.

"Zero covid" proponents also emphasise the risk and consequences of "long covid" without giving the full facts. Anthony Costello, for instance, is quoting catchy numbers - "15% of secondary schoolchildren and 13% of under-12s were still struggling with Covid-19 symptoms" 5 weeks after diagnosis. It might be true on paper but Anthony Costello's definition of "struggling" includes symptoms like cough and mild fatigue. Children can easily cough for weeks even after a trivial cold (my DD certainly does). We need more data to understand how wide spread true "long COVID" is within children. I am guessing it will be nowhere near 13-15%. Tim Spector previously suggested it might be 2% for the adult population. 'Zero covid" proponents never repeat this number - perhaps, because inflated double digit figures look more convincing.