Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Quarantino

Going back a while but did we ever see any consensus about what made cases rise so rapidly around the 1 Sept in nearly every Local Authority in England? There was a heat map that showed this on Twitter somewhere, annoyingly I can't find it at the moment. If it was solely 'new variant' it wouldn't have shown everywhere at the same time, surely, and it was too early for Uni/schools etc I think?

It wasn't really rising rapidly at that point. I'd say last week in August it clearly began to rise. I was on holiday with my parents and we discussed that it looked like we could be going into a second wave. Whether that was EOTHO or holidays, I don't think it could be said. But it was only a slow rise.

Then it continued to slowly but steadily rise gently for the first fortnight, then quicker from around the 16th September and really quicker rise at the end-about 28th September.
The 16th could be down to schools, timing would be quite reasonable for that, 28th could be that spread going wider and to family members.

I don't think the new variant shows up really until November/December time. That's when our area started rising rapidly, and, if you compare the heat maps round us to the heat maps in Lancashire during their October rise, then it looks quite different with number of under 15s infected.

It wasn't really rising rapidly at that point.

I agree. Both the ONS survey and the positivity rate trends from the government dashboard indicate that the cases remained low and stable throughout summer. The absolute numbers might have gone up but it was indeed driven by expanded testing:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England

On August 28 the positivity rate for England went up from 0.9 to 1%. That was the beginning of a very long climb.

My hypothesis is that it was a combination of seasonality and people moving (holiday returners and then students).

And here is the detailed ONS file for 2020:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata

COVID prevalence stayed at 0.05% throughout summer. The number went up to 0.07% during the week commencing August 30 and it was indeed the very start of the second wave.

UK-wide the cases by specimen date started a steep incline around 1 Sept, and there was a heatmap somewhere showing this wasn't just concentrated in one area etc.
I guess the thing about exponential growth is that it really kicks in suddenly. So maybe it was just a matter of time. But mid August shielding ended, end of August the govt started a back to work push, then start of September schools and uni went back so all together that would have helped push growth beyond test and trace capacity and go exponential.

ATie I think you're right, just a mix of things causing this horrible rise. I remember mid-late Aug we were on holiday (in UK) and being v careful and keeping an eye on numbers but they were 'ok'. And expanded testing.

An interesting article that suggests that new data just released from Russia's federal statistics agency puts Russia's Covid death-toll amongst the highest in the world:

edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-02-09-21/h_a9ad1544b917c6c0db84b2e6d60b4b64

.

[quote Haffiana]An interesting article that suggests that new data just released from Russia's federal statistics agency puts Russia's Covid death-toll amongst the highest in the world:

edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-02-09-21/h_a9ad1544b917c6c0db84b2e6d60b4b64[/quote]
Seen that. Sounds like they have hospital reporting and then something like ONs

Lets hope that vaccine of theirs works as well as stated.

I imagine at some stage several other countries numbers will suddenly jump up too

Cases: 12,364 - last Tuesday 16,840
Deaths: 1,052 - last Tuesday 1,449
Hospital admissions: 1,987 - last Tuesday 2,462

I imagine at some stage several other countries numbers will suddenly jump up too

I'm deeply suspicious about the American numbers. Their deaths just aren't high enough for their cases. And when I last looked, admittedly back in the autumn, were wildly out of whack with their excess deaths, too.

Surge testing in Woking : Cases up by 69% in St Johns (339), 10% in Knaphill (399), and a whopping 121% in Goldsworth Park (467).

It would be interesting to know what version of Covid they are picking up. These (I am assuming) will be mostly asymptomatic.

Good to see the downwards trends containing.
Vaccinations for England for yesterday slightly lower than last Monday, but still look on track to get to 15.5m for the UK by next Monday...

@Motorina

I imagine at some stage several other countries numbers will suddenly jump up too

I'm deeply suspicious about the American numbers. Their deaths just aren't high enough for their cases. And when I last looked, admittedly back in the autumn, were wildly out of whack with their excess deaths, too.

US excess deaths v. Covid are currently (up to 9th Jan): Covid: 360,370 Excess: 448,550

[quote Haffiana]An interesting article that suggests that new data just released from Russia's federal statistics agency puts Russia's Covid death-toll amongst the highest in the world:

edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-02-09-21/h_a9ad1544b917c6c0db84b2e6d60b4b64[/quote]
Posted this before, but worth re-posting for those who missed it:

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Russia up to November 2020:
Deaths: 39,470
Excess: 271,020

Thank you for that surge testing info @BigWoollyJumpers

12,364 cases today, but bear in mind there are whole counties where test centres have been closed for 2 days because of the snow!

@AlecTrevelyan006

Cases: 12,364 - last Tuesday 16,840 Deaths: 1,052 - last Tuesday 1,449 Hospital admissions: 1,987 - last Tuesday 2,462

Fantastic drops again

@ATieLikeRichardGere

This was helpful, thank you. Though I’ve got to say, I’m confused. I’m not clear why B117 remaining dominant over B1351 is helpful in a way. Can B1351 not still generate lots of infections, even if B117 generates more? How does a higher proportion of B117 limit the impact of B1351? Someone on Twitter asked “to what extent can we assume that the two are competing for infectees, given evidence the SA variant reinfects?” and I guess this is my question too.

I think that this by Adam Kucharski may answer your question if I am understanding it (your question, not his thread) correctly? (Although the maths in his thread goes over my head, I think I can still get the gist of it without that...)

When population immunity low, higher inherent transmissibility more important, but as immunity grows, so does advantage of variants that can evade this immunity.
mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1359193937907449863

Thanks for the new thread.

That's a stark difference in the Russia numbers isn't it.
Good to see numbers going the right way still.

Thx

@BigWoollyJumpers

Surge testing in Woking : Cases up by 69% in St Johns (339), 10% in Knaphill (399), and a whopping 121% in Goldsworth Park (467).

It would be interesting to know what version of Covid they are picking up. These (I am assuming) will be mostly asymptomatic.

The absolute case numbers though are a little less exciting.

St Johns 13 cases in 7 days to 28 Jan to 22 cases in the seven days to 4th feb

Knaphill 29 cases to 32 cases

Goldsworth 19 to 42 cases, so more noteworthy, although still lower than the number of cases a week further back (51 cases).

Woking overall though reduced week on week from 276 to 256,

Remembering that the seven day case total in Woking was 478 in the seven days to 21st Jan.

The variant info, assuming it will be forthcoming, in due course will be informative.

Cavemum posted this on the vaccination thread. Hope they don't mind me borrowing
it but worth seeing.

I think the issue with the SA strain being no more transmissable means that while we're all under lockdown and cases are falling mainly because of lockdown we don't need to worry about it too much, as cases of the new SA strain will fall too. But the problem as I see it is that once more people are vaccinated and we start unlocking, cases of the UK strain will remain low because of all the vaccinated people who don't spread it (much) But the SA strain will take off, as they'll be not much preventing it.

Re Woking figures. My understanding is 10,000 test kits were issued.

ONS data states that 1 in 55 people have the virus (although that data is a bit out of date). With that in mind, I thought the figures were lower than expected.

Firefliess Yes I agree that’s what we might see. But I think there might also be more to it. But I don’t understand it properly yet! Also, caveat is that B1351 may be more transmissible than the original strain, as with B117. I don’t think we have enough data to draw conclusions on that yet for sure.