Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

JVT on the South African variant:

If you are running a bath and you have got the hot water tap on and you add in a very small amount of cold water, so the cold tap is running as well but at really a very low volume, your bath water is basically going to remain hot.

It’s only if that cold tap was gushing much more than the hot tap, the cold water would take over.

That’s probably the best analogy I can give you at the moment. There are no signs that South African variant is running at that speed at the moment and therefore I don’t frame it as something that is going to be a dominant issue in the next few months.

I think it is a great summary of where we are with the South African variant and vaccines. As always, JVT has been precise in his choice of words:

• The SA variant is not a dominant issue right now;
• There is risk it may change over next few months once the spread of the Kent variant is halted.

Apparently 15% of nurses (according to a RNS survey) hadn’t been vaccinated

Or to put it another way - 85% of nurses have been vaccinated (according to a RNS survey).

Hi everyone, just popping quickly online to ask for a little help. I've been building a deaths data table on Covid Messenger.

Last week a few of you kindly let me know that it was showing an error on some browsers.

I think I have resolved this now.

If anyone had a minute to check if you can see the deaths table below and let me know if you get an error that would be hugely helpful: www.covidmessenger.com/deaths

If it's all good I will link it to the homepage which I am hoping to do today.

Thanks so much.

Unless I'm being dim, it looks fine to me on Chrome. Thank you!

Looks fine to me on my phone

Thank you thats great. I will link it to the homepage.

Looks fine to me.

I'm a bit shocked how high our area sits in the rankings. However we were high in the case loads earlier this month (though not as high) and I know the care homes were in real problems.

Interestingly my parents' area which has been fairly low through the second wave is also surprisingly high. I would guess they have a relatively elderly population though.

Real world data (from Israel) appears to support previous lab data showing little to no reduction in efficacy against B.1.1.7 variant (UK/Kent variant) for Pfizer vaccine.
mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2AA0MS?

Thanks for your responses all.

I heard a report saying 25% of care home staff were refusing (had refused?) a vaccine.

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-sun-exclusive-reporting-on-efficacy-of-single-dose-of-the-covid-19-vaccines/

Doesn't answer the question of why PHE reports are being leaked to the Sun prior to publication though.

@wintertravel1980 The bath analogy is a good one. But when most people are vaccinated that will effectively turn the hot tap right down (vaccinated people no longer spreading UK strain) So the bath will gradually get colder (SA strain becoming a bigger proportion) But we also start unlocking now, so both taps get turned up to double speed. Hot tap (UK strain) now back to where it started, but cold tap now on twice as hard so the bath quickly becomes cold (SA strain now spreading much faster.)

[quote Firefliess]@wintertravel1980 The bath analogy is a good one. But when most people are vaccinated that will effectively turn the hot tap right down (vaccinated people no longer spreading UK strain) So the bath will gradually get colder (SA strain becoming a bigger proportion) But we also start unlocking now, so both taps get turned up to double speed. Hot tap (UK strain) now back to where it started, but cold tap now on twice as hard so the bath quickly becomes cold (SA strain now spreading much faster.)[/quote]
And also we’ll have the new vaccine in Autumn? So a chance again to deal with the wrong tap

Thank you for your reply @Firefliess

And also we’ll have the new vaccine in Autumn? So a chance again to deal with the wrong tap.

Yes, the idea is to keep the flow from the wrong tap at a manageable level until we have got a solution to deal with it.

Re: removing restrictions now - the cases are going down rapidly so arguably we should be able to open some of the economy/society while keeping R under 1. I still think we do not talk enough about seasonality. Yes, the flu season runs until March but this assumes no social distancing measures. With many of restrictions still in place, we may be able to see the tide turning sooner. It may be easier to keep schools open now, with the daylength approaching 10 hours than it was back in December (with the daylength of 8 hours or less).

Also the (very small) study only showed that the vaccine didn't stop mild illness. That doesn't mean that it can't prevent moderate or severe illness which is really the most important thing.

@wintertravel1980

And also we’ll have the new vaccine in Autumn? So a chance again to deal with the wrong tap.

Yes, the idea is to keep the flow from the wrong tap at a manageable level until we have got a solution to deal with it.

Re: removing restrictions now - the cases are going down rapidly so arguably we should be able to open some of the economy/society while keeping R under 1. I still think we do not talk enough about seasonality. Yes, the flu season runs until March but this assumes no social distancing measures. With many of restrictions still in place, we may be able to see the tide turning sooner. It may be easier to keep schools open now, with the daylength approaching 10 hours than it was back in December (with the daylength of 8 hours or less).

Yes agree re seasonality

Tg as gives us some freedoms whilst vaccine is updated

Cases: 13,013: last Wednesday 19,202
Deaths: 1,001 - last Wednesday 1,322
Hospital admissions: 1,872 - last Wednesday 2,337

Re seasonality, does anyone have a good handle on what sort of seasonal factors are at play?

There are factors to do with how the virus behaves in the environment - things like UV which degrades it, or humidity which affects the extent to which it is airborne.

There are elements to do with human behaviour like being inside when it’s cold.

There are factors to do with host susceptibility - things like vitamin D levels and host chilling effects.

What else? Any good summaries in relation to this or other viruses?

13.058m vaccines!

@Loftyloft

It would be interesting to get data for the reasons for the refusal of the vaccine so far. I think some of it will be the population who have already had covid, so weary of chance of side effects of vaccine when they already have (some) immunity. Not saying it’s the right approach but it may ply a part.

Apparently 15% of nurses (according to a RNS survey) hadn’t been vaccinated - had they not been offered, or had they not taken this up, and what was the reason?

If take up of vaccine is 85%, but half of the 15% have had the virus; then it gives a strong % of people vaccinated (at least for a period of time/against some strains).

I heard a report that agency nurses haven't been offered the vaccine, so maybe they make up alot of the 15%? Don't really understand why they haven't been eligible as I know nurses in private hospitals who have had it so it isn't just NHS.

Maybe it was just an oversight and they will catch up.

Whilst not fully complete, Monday positives by specimen date are showing a much smaller jump than we usually get... is this the impact of vaccination in addition to lockdown now?

@AlecTrevelyan006

Cases: 13,013: last Wednesday 19,202 Deaths: 1,001 - last Wednesday 1,322 Hospital admissions: 1,872 - last Wednesday 2,337

13k feels good, a big drop

@Loftyloft - or possibly the snow causing closure of some testing centers?

I might be optimistic but I have everything crossed that today will be the last day where we report over 1k deaths.

The snow up here has caused shutdowns of workplaces etc. so I guess this could also affect transmission and show up later down the line, as well as affecting testing now.