Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Good point but I think now there is evidence that the vaccines work to some extent on cutting infection of the new variant. The hope is if it does get dominant after vaccination it would be at a slower rate. Then we use tweaked boosters in the Autumn if needed.

But the SA strain will take off, as they'll be not much preventing it.

Hope this doesn’t happen.

Ancedotal so please skip over it - if it is inappropriate.

A relative is in a care home and had the AZ vaccine on the 15th Jan. On 30th Jan cases of covid were in the care home amongst staff and residents. They have been tested again since and more cases have appeared. PHE are now telling the care home not to test routinely but only if there are symptons.

So far out of 15 cases only 3 have symptons - I am guessing due to the vaccine?

I am concerned that by not testing there is no way of knowing who has asymptomatic covid and then spread more and that it may affect the data re vaccine and cases of covid.

@Coquohvan

But the SA strain will take off, as they'll be not much preventing it.

Hope this doesn’t happen.

The vaccines still work to slow the transmission on the SA. Just not quite as well as the original and Kent. So if the SA because dominant the spread would be slowed. Hospitalisations and death should still be greatly reduced too. Then in Autumn a tweaked booster can be given if needed.

@PollyRoulson

Ancedotal so please skip over it - if it is inappropriate.

A relative is in a care home and had the AZ vaccine on the 15th Jan. On 30th Jan cases of covid were in the care home amongst staff and residents. They have been tested again since and more cases have appeared. PHE are now telling the care home not to test routinely but only if there are symptons.

So far out of 15 cases only 3 have symptons - I am guessing due to the vaccine?

I am concerned that by not testing there is no way of knowing who has asymptomatic covid and then spread more and that it may affect the data re vaccine and cases of covid.

With AZ it shouldn't have an effect for 3 weeks. So the fact they are not really I'll is very good.

Public health England don't want the home to test anyone recently found positive. As would possibly still have old covid still in them. No idea about not testing in the home at all. Unless the train of thought is other residents and staff probably had covid without knowing. Therefore any test would be a false positive.

what made cases rise so rapidly around the 1 Sept in nearly every Local Authority in England?

GCSE/A level results.

Prior to these I saw very few young people out and about. Afterwards, hordes. Socialisation and parties all over the place, hanging out in the park until all hours, just being normal teenagers and probably infecting one another and their families.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum The vaccines still work to slow the transmission on the SA. Just not quite as well as the original and Kent. So if the SA because dominant the spread would be slowed. Hospitalisations and death should still be greatly reduced too. Then in Autumn a tweaked booster can be given if needed Thank you some posters really need to be factual. Slowed v rampant different worlds.

Thank you @Phyzzy

[quote Coquohvan]@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum The vaccines still work to slow the transmission on the SA. Just not quite as well as the original and Kent. So if the SA because dominant the spread would be slowed. Hospitalisations and death should still be greatly reduced too. Then in Autumn a tweaked booster can be given if needed Thank you some posters really need to be factual. Slowed v rampant different worlds.[/quote]
You can choose whatever nice words you like and try and think positively if you want, but if the recent (admittedly very small) study is correct and the Oxford vaccine doesn't stop people catching and spreading the SA strain of Covid, but we unlock so as to have an R rate of about 4 (the natural level, with no population immunity) I think rampant would not be seen inaccurate term to use. If we maintain some restrictions and keep the SA R at 2 that doubles every 5 days so takes cases from 1,000 a day to 100,000 a day in a month... Even once we've offered the vaccine to everyone (including children) they'll be maybe 15% of the population who've refused it (or can't safely have it) with no protection and the rest with partial protection from serious disease but a very, very high chances of catching it. I do like to look for the positives too, but the data on the SA strain does look very worrying indeed. The study didn't suggest it worked "not quite as well" but rather that it didn't work at all in preventing symptomatic infection. Sorry not to feel able to be positive about this.

Although stats so far show vaccine take up of over 90% don't they - press conference yesterday? Don't know if this is expected to drop with age groups.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Although stats so far show vaccine take up of over 90% don't they - press conference yesterday? Don't know if this is expected to drop with age groups.

Yes they have been really good soon far 95% of the 75-80s! But all the surveys they have done asking people whether they'll have the vaccine have shown rates do fall in the younger age groups.

I think uptake I running at about 85%, which is great but I hope we can improve it further.

We are really lacking in some of information that would help us appraise the situation fully.

We don’t know with much degree of certainty what the actual chances of infection with SA variant /B1351 are for those vaccinated with AZ/Pfizer/Moderna or previously infected, we don’t know the chance of serious illness in these scenarios, we don’t know how this would differ by age etc. We don’t really know how widespread this strain is in the UK, or the B117 + E484K strain. We aren’t clear on the transmissibility characteristics of B1351 either. We also don’t know what other variants could be popping up. A lot of unknowns!

However what data we do have definitely point to there being a problem. Reinfections are happening with B1351 and all vaccines appear to be losing some efficacy against it, AZ perhaps quite significantly. This does imply, unfortunately, a longer exit period than would have been anticipated without the emergence of these variants. I think that means it’s reasonable to entertain different scenarios for how it could play out, best and worst. No one can guarantee either.

If I were strategising this I am now wondering if, after vaccinating broadly as we are doing, which I do agree is the right strategy now with high infections and immediate risk to life, I’d next be considering targeting the most efficacious vaccine boosters available to the spreaders first - if only we could know who they are. I know a lot of these vaccine strategy pieces were shared here a while ago.

I’m feeling positive in the sense that smart people are keenly aware of the problem and they are working on it.

@Firefliess what about what Jonathan van Tam said about the South African variant? Do you think he was talking rubbish? And plenty of other scientists have said wrt the AZ and the SA strain? From other countries too?

I know you didn’t ask me but what JVT said was “there is no reason to think the South African variant will catch up or overtake our current virus in the next few months” - that’s not actually contradicting any of the possibilities we have considered here.

I was meaning more widely about what the study did and didn't show.

At a slight tangent I'd be interested to know when mixing of vaccines trials are likely to report.

Ah can maybe answer my own question. Sky news saying results not for at least 3 months.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-good-reason-to-believe-vaccine-mix-and-match-will-improve-immune-response-study-says-12213714

That is very interesting research

It seems to me the result of mixing xmas and ny were about 4 days later.
So 4th sept i would expect a big increase after schools went back. Though they dont all start back on the same day.
But unlike xmas where is was older family infected on 1 day. School is child infected then larger family group but many silently. Xmas wave showed us the level of infection in the younger age groups.

It would be interesting to get data for the reasons for the refusal of the vaccine so far. I think some of it will be the population who have already had covid, so weary of chance of side effects of vaccine when they already have (some) immunity. Not saying it’s the right approach but it may ply a part.

Apparently 15% of nurses (according to a RNS survey) hadn’t been vaccinated - had they not been offered, or had they not taken this up, and what was the reason?

If take up of vaccine is 85%, but half of the 15% have had the virus; then it gives a strong % of people vaccinated (at least for a period of time/against some strains).

Also - how come this story isn’t front page news? An easily available steroid which cuts hospitalizations by 90% when taken when symptoms start? It’s a small study and not peer reviewed, but possible very good news, between this and vaccinations in the arsenal against covid deaths.

[quote tobee]@Firefliess what about what Jonathan van Tam said about the South African variant? Do you think he was talking rubbish? And plenty of other scientists have said wrt the AZ and the SA strain? From other countries too? [/quote]
I think he's (rightly) concerned with ensuring that people don't panic and that they go ahead and take the AZ vaccine when offered.

But a vaccine that stops transmission and a vaccine that might just help to stop you getting very sick if you catch it are very different things, and have hugely different impacts on when we might safely be able to unlock. I'm sure Jonathan van Tam knows and the other scientists who've spoken out do know this.

BBC reporting last night that the SA variant has been found in South London and two areas are being surge tested, one was Streatham, can't remember the other.

I wonder how many areas it's got to be found in (presumably by the routine genomic testing of 10% of positives?) before it's declared nationally spread? And what would then happen?

@JanFebAnyMonth
if the R number is generally below 1, then you'd hope that people wouldn't be too worried as the number of that variant should decline. JVT has been clear that he doesn't expect it to become the dominant variant, at least not any time soon

It would be interesting to get data for the reasons for the refusal of the vaccine so far.
I don't know if NIMS logs anyone as having actively refused yet, as opposed to just not yet having had it. Looking at some guidance, the SitRep reports don't seem to log active refusal but the legislation suggests it should be logged, so someone with knowledge of the logging system would need to clarify. There are a few obvious reasons, some are delay rather than refusal:

• Current or imminently planned pregnancy, or breastfeeding. While these can be allowable reasons to be vaccinated the lack of testing is highlighted and women will make their own decisions.
• On maternity leave.
• Medications or illness; more affects elderly, but people should be healthy when given the vaccine.
• Allergy to Pfizer and limited availability of Oxford Astrazeneca locally. Or vice versa only want Pfizer but only Oxford AZ available locally.
• Not able to attend a vaccination session yet.
• Won't have vaccine due to bovine milk use in the process.
• Want to wait a period of time since having covid or until more roll-out, due to being nervous.

... And then it's the "don't want vaccines" set.