AZ - EU dispute 2

[marbellamarc]

Unsure if this will work!

Hand on heart would you all be happy with that? seriously? i'd bet my house again, they'd be howls of protest and demands

Very unhappy but I think the ire would be directed at the government & BoJo. Our lack of PPE wasn't blamed on other countries stopping exporting. We were slow.

We know there’s another bigger pandemic over the hill. China will not let anyone in to check their facilities so instead they want to force entry into the facilities of countries who will co-operate.

I read an interesting article this morning from the head of Pfizer discussing the need to be able to turn vaccines around in 100 days as he can see that pandemics will become more common in the future. They will need facilities and plants. We are perfectly positioned to take advantage of this new industry.

Interesting about the published contract, what a heinous breach of trust.

I'd very wary of putting any of my business in the eu right now. Their behaviour, actions... Out of control and un trust worthy.

Why will pandemics become more common in the future? Overpopulation?

Von der leyen is disingenuous as hell. No comment on Germany buying vaccines on the side but of course no other EU countries can do that. The EU is run by Germany for Germany.

Also for future development on radio interesting comment that we need to find a delivery method that doesn’t involve injection by HCP

Ie tablet, nasal etc instead that we can do ourselves

@Rosehip10

Von der leyen is disingenuous as hell. No comment on Germany buying vaccines on the side but of course no other EU countries can do that. The EU is run by Germany for Germany.

Yes I’m not getting his this is happening. It is by Germans isn’t it

Your phrase I mean - I agree

@CrotchBurn

Why will pandemics become more common in the future? Overpopulation?

Overpopulation, the destruction of natural habitats which sees people live alongside animals in close proximity, global travel, climate change and also biological warfare. Don’t think it isn’t possible that these labs actually making viruses for research couldn’t accidentally or otherwise infect people.

There will have been conversations globally about the possibilities of vaccines being created and administered to indigenous populations before a virus is then released to travel the globe. This isn’t conspiracy theory stuff, this is totally possible in the future particularly when land and food becomes scarcer due to climate change.

So the ability to turn a vaccine around quickly becomes important.

But it appears the germans don't have access or delivery to the extra they ordered.
They wont until everyone received their eu orders receive their extra pbizer despite bio tech being US/ Germans.
They must think UK is rolling in vaccines.
We ordered lot but not sure how much we taken delivery of or short term stock.
Hopefully nicola sturgeon won't tell them as Boris says confidentiality is interest of national security.
If the eu argue we sat on too much they may use that as excuse to delay our phizer and moderna.
Be interesting see Germans vaccination % and see if they ignore EMA and wont use AZ on their over 65.

Then to distribute the excess to the Commonwealth countries?
RoI would always have to be first if they have any supply gap. Given yesterday's events I've come around to the humorous idea someone had on another thread of UK setting up a mass vaccination centre just over the border in NI and jabbing any Irish who come.
Then South Africa are most under strain, we well as the West African nations like Nigeria. So those would be my first pick. The only non-Commonwealth that might need vaccine more urgently is Brazil; Oxford AZ owes Brazil favours for the trial too.

Does anyone know what the current weekly vaccine production is at the AZ EU facilities?

I seem to recall Ursula von de Leyen saying the EU were 70m doses short and these should come from UK production. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the UK current capacity only 2m doses per week - so just how many doses were the EU planning on allowing the UK to have? It came across to me as they were effectively willing to leave the UK with nothing.

Most of the Moderna vaccine is made in the US, so I don't think the EU can do much to mess with it.

Most of Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine will be made in Massachusetts, co-founder says

@3asAbird - say if your vaccine is made in Belgium, you submit for export authorisation to the person listed as the "competent authority". The list at that link says Kingdom of Belgium - Federal Public Service Economy in Belgium - Patrick Van Gheel, [email protected].
So, say he will have been told by the EC "keep lists and send nothing to UK", he will say "permission denied, those vaccines are for EC order". Then the supplier complies, or goes to court in Belgium to ask them to declare the whole thing illegal because [insert reason, including written contract and case law]. If the supplier complies then they will tell the third country "sorry, nothing I can do, take it up with the EC" and work out how else (much later) they can fulfil the order or return funds. If the Belgian court finds it legal, the same. If the Belgian court finds it illegal, well then we'd need several more threads for the repercussions for EC.

Sorry, caveat - I can't see the specific legislation, this is just from the links I gave you above.

Oxford Biomedica signed the contract to produce vaccine on 28th May .
Cobra Biologics signed 16th June. Both uk factorys.

Halix in the Netherlands signed 8th December. Does anyone know the second EU factory details.

Given the three month minimum to produce the vaccine it looks like way to early for much vaccine to have been produced yet never mind what the EU commission are suggesting.

@antshouse - Novasep in Walloon.

Here's a bit more about Moderna. This ran in yesterday's WSJ:

AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 Vaccine Wins EU Green Light Amid Controversy

Aggravating the EU delays, Moderna has told non-U.S. countries that it will be delivering fewer doses than anticipated in February, a company spokeswoman said. The company blamed a slower-than-anticipated production ramp-up at Lonza Group, the Swiss contract manufacturer that is making the vaccine’s active substance, a Moderna spokeswoman said. France’s health ministry said it would be receiving 25% fewer doses in February than anticipated from Moderna.

Moderna said it would make up February’s missed deliveries in March, allowing the company to meet its delivery commitments for the first quarter as a whole.

Moderna’s production problems mirror those at AstraZeneca, which has slashed its delivery forecast because a contractor in Belgium has faced reported lower-than-expected output.

The EU bet big on AstraZeneca’s shot, preordering up to 400 million doses, enough to inoculate nearly half of the region’s 450 million people. The bloc had expected to receive at least 100 million doses—and up to 120 million—by the end of March. In December, the company said it would deliver just 80 million. Last week, AstraZeneca officials told EU leaders the bloc would receive as few as 31 million doses—enough to vaccinate about 15 million people.

@CrotchBurn were you asking for this?

Thank you M Rex.

Novasep signed a Master Supply and Development Agreement with AZ 12 November.
Wonder if the 'missing EU vaccines ' were in fact UK product sent there for finish and fill before the UK finish and fill chain were arranged,

@MRex yes, indeed. A very clear summary, thank you.

I think the likely reality is access to Pfizer from Europe is gone. I think we just have to hope that at least some of these hold true:

1. There's enough in country already for second doses for those who have had their first.
2. There's sufficient Oxford/AZ supply to address the deficit in a reasonable timeframe so as not to compromise the vaccine rollout to much.
3. Pfizer is willing and able to redirect supply from a non EU factory (or - pipedream probably - start producing in the UK).
4. Novavax comes onstream soon. I confess to being very relieved that there is a manufacturing site for this within the UK.

Or, alternatively

1. There is an effective bargaining strategy (supply of raw materials or syringes???) that the EU does not fully withhold Pfizer
2. The US starts stamping its feet about restrictions on an American company

I do think this has the potential to damage the EU vaccine rollout more than the UK one. As I understand it, the UK are effectively self sufficient in the Oxford vaccine, with Novavax to follow. The EU are reliant on Pfizer, Moderna and Oxford/AZ, all of which have announced very significant delays in delivery.

It's not good all round.

@antshouse - that's possible. We also don't know if deliveries actually state an amount to go to other countries first? There was an awful lot redacted related to dates.

3. Pfizer is willing and able to redirect supply from a non EU factory (or - pipedream probably - start producing in the UK).

The UK is small relative to both the EU and the US. The US chose to wait for home production of Pfizer. Given Pfizer are continuously ramping up supply it towards the billions it seems probable that they can quite easily flex away from EU production to the US for WW fulfilment.

Given the reported problems across all the vaccines in maximising yields in EU based production this might happen anyway. Starting to look more and more like EU production was more of a political courtesy to guarantee market access etc than commercial and logistics driven.

BBC reporting EU's new export notification system is likely to lead to delays in exporting Pfizer vaccine to the UK. They could end up compounding their differential yield issue if they are the ones stuck with waiting for EU production while everywhere else is redirected and non-EU higher yield production leveraged.

Would be illuminating to see what the UK/Pfizer contracts say on where supply is sourced. Suspect they are non-restrictive whereas the AZ example suggests that the EU ones will all prioritise home sourcing.

AstraZeneca do not make the vaccine - it is subcontracted. In the UK, Cobra Biologics (Keele) and Oxford Biomedica (Oxford) were engaged to make the vaccine in mid-February 2020. This remarkably early start was partly needed as large quantities would be needed for trials in the UK, never mind the later roll-out once approved. Wockhardt UK (Wrexham) were engaged in August 2020 for fill & finish (basically putting bulk virus into vials) ready for distribution. They quickly geared up to have the capacity to produce 150,000 vials per day on a 5-day week and as each vial is 8 doses that is 1.2m doses per day - 6m doses/week. There is no data about how much of this capacity has been used, so no data on production achieved.

In India, SII were engaged in June 2020 to produce 1 billion doses, with 400 million by the end of 2020. Much of the funding for India is from Bill & Melinda Gates through GAVI and the vaccine is for low and middle-income countries so the EU can not have any of that.

In Belgium, it appears that Novasep (Seneffe) were engaged in November 2020 which is 9 months behind the UK manufacturers.

It is hardly surprising the EU are having difficulties obtaining AZ vaccine. The decision taken this week that they may take control at Novasep and mandate other plants in the EU to make the AZ vaccine is possibly the correct decision, but it is at least 4 months too late. AZ and EU should have been working together to sign up production capacity across Europe from September 2020 or earlier.

The EU has performed miserably when compared to UK, US and even India. The EU's pharmaceutical capacity (with Switzerland) is much, much bigger than the UK's and they should have done better. EU politicians may be having a go at AZ and the UK, but some individual governments, their press and their populations will see right through their bluster.