Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

[quote MRex]@ancientgran - your home fits as one that missed jabs when the team were in your area because of having active outbreaks. The care home management team need to ensure they're following up, but it's only 7th February. I understand you're worried, but I don't think that means other figures are incorrect, nor that information is inconsistent, and I do think that your care home won't be done very soon.[/quote]
No we didn't miss because of an active outbreak.

Do you know how they define the end of the outbreak?

South African variant, surge test stats. So, looking at St Johns and Goldsworth in Woking, both have posted increases in cases for the specimen date 2nd, which must have been the first day of testing there. Increase of 90% and 20%, although absolute numbers still low, 9 and 5 extra cases, and showing them at 322 and 288 per 100,000. Will let you know what tomorrow's figures show.

@JanFebAnyMonth - I looked it up the other day. There isn't a fixed point, the care home management need to have submitted a risk analysis to local public health and once agreed they book a team to go back and jab as soon as possible. It looked like it was dependent on how good the isolation procedures are etc, but I didn't read much more.

Some more details/ data here on the AstraZeneca study in South Africa:
mobile.twitter.com/whippletom/status/1358467319824080896

[quote MRex]@JanFebAnyMonth - I looked it up the other day. There isn't a fixed point, the care home management need to have submitted a risk analysis to local public health and once agreed they book a team to go back and jab as soon as possible. It looked like it was dependent on how good the isolation procedures are etc, but I didn't read much more.[/quote]
We've tried to book more than once, everything is in order they told us weeks ago we were on the list, now they have given us a provisional date but say they can't confirm it. It is weeks away. I don't know if the fact we have a provisional date means they consider that we have been "offered" the vaccine. They say it is logistics, I don't know if that means they haven't got the vaccine or the staff.

My husband has had his vaccine, I asked when my age group is likely to get it, I'm group 5, and was told I'd probably hear this week or next. I actually work in a different local authority to where I live so don't know if that would make a big difference. I know a few people in my husband's group, group 4, who have heard in the last few days.

Indie SAGE on LFTs reducing positivity rates:
https://www.youtubetrimmer.com/view/?v=oBd2ENlhZ7I&start=153&end=419&fbclid=IwAR0bxleMvBabv2wYOrrzW13EyTa3pqWGK0ipKd2v3GuHnnxx4IF6jmPXM

Coffee - those results are quite worrying but I think the Oxford team are jumping too quickly to say that as their jab is not effective against the SA variant, then herd immunity is impossible.

Other vaccines have much better protection against the SA variant, so we shouldn’t generalise. It’s possible that all those who had AZ need a top-up, but we don’t yet know how the Pzifer jab performs.

This study by Pfizer suggest that it will be effective against the SA variant.

www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/vitro-studies-demonstrate-pfizer-and-biontech-covid-19

@Eyewhisker

Coffee - those results are quite worrying but I think the Oxford team are jumping too quickly to say that as their jab is not effective against the SA variant, then herd immunity is impossible.

Other vaccines have much better protection against the SA variant, so we shouldn’t generalise. It’s possible that all those who had AZ need a top-up, but we don’t yet know how the Pzifer jab performs.

Oxford seem confident that it will still prevent severe disease though.

Source/ author of graphic: mobile.twitter.com/TheGazmanRants/status/1358462414942011398

@JanFebAnyMonth

Indie SAGE on LFTs reducing positivity rates: https://www.youtubetrimmer.com/view/?v=oBd2ENlhZ7I&start=153&end=419&fbclid=IwAR0bxleMvBabv2wYOrrzW13EyTa3pqWGK0ipKd2v3GuHnnxx4IF6jmPXM

Dr Kit Yates, about 4-7 mins in iSAGE persuaded PHE to change their reporting/labelling!

Coffee - I really hope it’s true that it still prevents severe disease against the SA variant. At the moment though, that is only a hope.

I see the Guardian are now reporting that South Africa has suspended use of the AZ vaccine and is going to offer Pfizer and Johnson& Johnson instead.

Really though, WTF is happening in Rutland?

@swg1

Really though, WTF is happening in Rutland?

The have had a large prison out break at HMP Stoken.

Out of 7 wings there five have covid racing through them.

I’m fed up of covid today! We’ve now got so many anti-covid interventions and tools which are currently active such as:
-lockdown
-masks, hand washing, social distancing
-isolation of infected and contacts

-PCR tests & rapid tests
-genome sequencing for contact tracing and detecting strains
-border quarantines, testing and travel bans
-Astra Zeneca and Pfizer vaccine
-dexamethasone, toxilizimab and sarilumab
-interferon beta

Not easy to divide them all up and I’m sure I’ve missed some. But I feel like that’s a lot, yet the state of play is not ideal.

On the plus side, infections are way down and vaccinations are way up.

On the downside, we don’t seem to know how widespread concerning mutations are, how effective the vaccines will be against them, what they mean for reinfection and when we might be in a position to remove any of the more costly interventions.

Today I feel like I’m not sure what data is the most instructive to look at because there are so many unknowns at this time.

Why are infections falling in South Africa? Why is lockdown working here at the moment but not elsewhere? Can we see vaccine effects on the data? How real are seasonal patterns? How fast can we expect the next mutation and what direction could it take? If we need booster vaccines, who should get them - same as current priority list? To name a few. So many questions.

ATieLikeRichardGere thank you for articulating how I feel . It helps me to feel less "stuck" .

And I'm afraid I'm with Ancientgran ,Gov spins ,omits ,lies about so much stuff .

I used to think my mum had a bit of a personality flaw because of her cynicism about gov messages ,her comments of "They told us .." where she would go on to talk about WW2 etc .Now I feel I misjudged her and should have given more credit to her experience .

It does feel very stuck atm

Consider whether the government is really competent and omnipotent enough to do sophisticated lying, directing different bodies like the ONS, NHS, universities etc. to participate accordingly. I don’t think the evidence supports that! But honestly, whether they are or aren’t, I consider that quite a fruitless path to travel down. The data we have to work with is always going to be imperfect for one reason or another. Our aim here is to do the best we can with what we have.

Data wise, where to next?

Are we getting J&J at some point soon?

I’m wondering if that will be part of second dose regime.

A bit sensationalist as ever but a worthwhile read because this guy did call out a few things early on:
tomaspueyo.substack.com/p/variants-v-vaccines?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=copy

J&J I think is meant to be coming to us mid 2021 - not that soon.

My assumption is that the government know more than we know, but it will all come out eventually. I sincerely doubt Boris Johnson and the people around him are running a secret sophisticated operation of subterfuge, but looking incompetent to cover it up.

I think they must have known in advance that the AZ vaccine was less effective against the SA variant, hence the surge testing. And that the three month delay was ok.

Yes I will agree that the government may be under reporting their lines of investigation on the South African variant, though I doubt they have much certainty as yet. It very well could be widespread which they must fear and I think they’ve tried to avoid saying that. I can understand this decision.

Why are infections falling in South Africa?

They had a very strict lockdown... ironically some scientists now think this may have enhanced the transmission of the virus, resulting in herd immunity.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-south-africas-covid-lockdown-may-have-created-herd-immunity-12116494

It's anD summer there, covid seems quite seasonal.

@whatswithtodaytoday

My assumption is that the government know more than we know, but it will all come out eventually. I sincerely doubt Boris Johnson and the people around him are running a secret sophisticated operation of subterfuge, but looking incompetent to cover it up.

I think they must have known in advance that the AZ vaccine was less effective against the SA variant, hence the surge testing. And that the three month delay was ok.

Why would the delay be ok?