Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I ask as I have been mulling over why the wait.

We have around 124 known cases plus many more. In areas that might not be in surge test area.

Surely we’re going to be getting people turning up for the oxford jab and refusing it as they want the Psizer one. I can’t say I’d blame them at this point.

What wait are you referring to Marsha?

@CrackOpenTheGin everyone I know that has got the vaccine has known at appointment booking what vaccine they were getting, so there would be no need to turn up and refuse, they could just “miss their turn” and hope to get their preferred option at a later date, though I personally would be happy with any of the MHRA-approved vaccines.

CrackOpenTheGin Possibly, but it’s still easy to advise people why they are best to go ahead and have it. It offers very high protection against our dominant strain B117 and it could well offer protection against B1351. It’s not actually clear in the evolutionary race whether B1351 will out compete B117. The alternative to the Oxford vaccine at the moment isn’t really the Pfizer vaccine as there isn’t enough - it’s no vaccine. So I really hope people still go and get their vaccine.

ATie wondering about rational behind waiting to act re SA variant and how much ir was expected that vaccine might be an issue.

If we’re hearing reports on radio re 124 cases or near then we know there’s likely more. Why did we wait to do surge testing when there were the first two cases

Maybe there wasn’t thought to be an issue re vaccine.

@CrackOpenTheGin

Surely we’re going to be getting people turning up for the oxford jab and refusing it as they want the Psizer one. I can’t say I’d blame them at this point.

I think this would be a big mistake. They may not get the Pfizer instead and Ox Az vaccine still very effective against old strain and cuts transmission.

The UK Biobank survey is out today, from the press release:

For the 6-month period from the end of May 2020 to the beginning of December 2020, UK Biobank collected monthly blood samples and data on potential symptoms from 20,200 UK Biobank participants and their adult children and grandchildren. The study also found that:

The proportion of the population with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2[1] (‘seroprevalence’, which indicates past infection) rose from 6.6% at the start of the study period (May/June 2020) to 8.8% by the end of it (November/December 2020).
Across the various population groups included in the study, it was found that:

-> SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was most common in London (12.4%) and least common in Scotland (5.5%).[2]
-> There was no difference in seroprevalence by gender, but the proportion of participants with detectable antibodies was higher in younger people (13.5% among those under 30) and lowest in the elderly (6.7% among those over 70).
-> The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was highest among participants of Black ethnicity (16.3%) and lowest among those of White (8.5%) and Chinese ethnicities (7.5%).

The most common symptom associated with having antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was a loss of sense of taste and smell, which was reported by 43% of sero-positive participants.
About one-quarter (24%) of sero-positive participants were completely asymptomatic and 40% did not have one of the three ‘classic’ COVID-19 symptoms (fever, persistent dry cough or loss of sense of taste or smell).

There’s a good graphic at the bottom, and a link to the full report.

www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/learn-more-about-uk-biobank/news/uk-biobank-study-shows-that-covid-19-antibodies-remain-for-at-least-6-months

That seroprevalence seems low to me. Though our fatality rate may be higher than seen in other younger fitter populations, or we may be better at counting deaths. Or some immunity does not derive from detectable antibodies. It’s seems inconsistent with a recent USA study and you would think we would be similar.

There are 2 problems imho.

1. current thinking and strategy (lack of) is focusing on nhs, hospitalization and death. Not on society, not on individuals. It does not take long covid into consideration at all.
2. Another problem with who gets which vaccine is that some groups need better protection than others - linking back to point 1. Someone ecv/cv in their 40s will need the one preventing even mild disease. I know I'm very unpopular with this, but in reality even if a (small) proportion of young(er) people get mild covid and end up with long term consequences it will have a toll on economy, nhs, welfare spending.

I find it un-explainable how in this country a response to a pandemic can be about saving a gov agency that could be propped up (way) better instead of saving the citizens. Even now the narrative is not that we are saving lives with vaccination program, but that we are relieving the nhs. Don't get me wrong, it's great and everything, but it's such a fucked up narrative and stance.

It's the same with education. save children's future with stupid facade measures (+2 weeks, crony tutoring,..) when it's within their power and should be their job to fund it properly and create a fair system.

This gov on one hand is the most socialist/communist that I have ever seen in my life (coming from a socialist country) and the most wild west capitalist ever - all in one. Strange days to be alive.
To prevent flogging :): socialist in the bad sense of putting responsibility on people without actually putting power/money there as well. I don't think I need to explain the other half.

That seroprevalence seems low to me

They're quoting antibodies detected, they don't say in what I've read so far which assay they're using and don't say for certain it's unadjusted, but the best UK one previously is only quoted at 71% so that's over 12% just from the poor test.

It still seems low compared to ONS data of course, especially when they claim 88% retain their antibodies.

All test sites are closed across the entire county where my parents are today due to the snow- this is going to cause a massive drop in case numbers this week!

That seroprevalence result announces itself ever more clearly as useless in identifying the numbers infected. PCR tests have confirmed around 6% of the population (4m) as having had covid. Seroprevalence back in June was over 6%. Whatever the correct number, it is certainly not only 8.8%. I don't know if the issue is who they're testing out the methods. Has anyone come across large volume studies looking at T cells rather than just IgG to get a sense of the proportion fighting off covid using T-cells?

MRex totally agree. Have not seen such a study but will be keeping an eye out.

*should have said OR the methods, apologies for the typo

@MRex

That seroprevalence result announces itself ever more clearly as useless in identifying the numbers infected. PCR tests have confirmed around 6% of the population (4m) as having had covid. Seroprevalence back in June was over 6%. Whatever the correct number, it is certainly not only 8.8%. I don't know if the issue is who they're testing out the methods. Has anyone come across large volume studies looking at T cells rather than just IgG to get a sense of the proportion fighting off covid using T-cells?

There are using stupid people like me - who messed up the antibody test they sent me . This from a supposedly intelligent woman. I put the blood into "B" for blood, rather than "S" for serum. "B" is for buffer. The test worked in that it went up the tester, and turned the top line from blue to red, but no other lines. So either negative or probably down as inconclusive, because I had to fess up to the mess up!

40% did not have one of the three ‘classic’ COVID-19 symptoms (fever, persistent dry cough or loss of sense of taste or smell).

Yet self-referral.test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk/ won't even let you book a test if you don't have at least one of these. 111 and GPs are having to tell people to lie to get tested - www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n283

Any wonder that it's still spreading?

www.theguardian.com/education/2021/feb/08/covid-hits-exam-taking-poorer-pupils-worst-england-study-finds

Nothing unduly surprising in these findings but it is up to data at least.

I thought the last paragraph was interesting. Anyone not in education (glares to Halfon) underestimates often how much school actually causes anxiety for some. The talk (as mentioned above by MRex of extra school weeks and longer days may actively be fuelling school related anxiety. The government itself needs to stop catastrophising, imo.

MRex - I don’t know about assays, but I was one of the people in the study and I had to provide 0.5ml of blood monthly. It was originally a genetics study, so I assume their sampling was (at least originally) a balance of different ethnic groups.

I'd be much more interested in seeing health markers from that biobank data to find out how much lockdown is costing health and fitness, it's the really big unknown for me - how many people have become more sedentary etc. And that's the only place the data would've come from (as they have the really good history), but I don't see any analysis yet.

According to Prof Peter Openshaw, an immunologist from Imperial College London, mild forms of the illness meant that the virus was only present in the nose and upper airway, whereas "the disease that we are most fearful of is when it gets down deep into the lungs" and potentially affects other organs of the body.

"I think there is very little doubt these vaccines will prevent that sort of spread of the virus outside the confines of the upper respiratory tract," he told the BBC.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

According to Prof Peter Openshaw, an immunologist from Imperial College London, mild forms of the illness meant that the virus was only present in the nose and upper airway, whereas "the disease that we are most fearful of is when it gets down deep into the lungs" and potentially affects other organs of the body.

"I think there is very little doubt these vaccines will prevent that sort of spread of the virus outside the confines of the upper respiratory tract," he told the BBC.

Truly this sounds good. Could you link pls?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55983453

14,104/333

cases: 14,104 - last Monday 18,607
deaths: 333 - last Monday 406
hospital admissions: 2,107 - last Monday 2,591