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Original poster

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

999 replies

TheSunIsStillShining · 28/01/2021 17:04

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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23
wintertravel1980 · 06/02/2021 21:17

From FT:

The Oxford vaccine appears far less effective against the South African virus strain and offers no protection against mild and moderate disease:

on.ft.com/3aJHB51

This definitely complicates things. Moderna who also reported a reduction (although not a full loss) of efficacy are already working on a booster. Assume Oxford is following the suit.

everythingthelighttouches · 06/02/2021 21:25

wintertravel1980

Just came to post exact same link.
At least it prevents hospitalisation but still I agree about updates vaccines. I assume they are already on the case.

CoffeeandCroissant · 06/02/2021 21:34

Sample size 2000, median age 31 and no link to the preprint until Monday. Hmm

CoffeeandCroissant · 06/02/2021 21:38

Not enough data to say that it prevents hospitalisations or deaths. 2,000 people is a small sample size for those outcomes and median age of 31 makes those outcomes even less likely.

MargaretThursday · 06/02/2021 21:38

With the rising cases most are only talking about small numbers.

Assuming my calculations are correct:
There are 15 areas rising (according to littleowl's wonderful website) and only 4 have risen more than 15%. (and only 7 more than10%)
However 3 of them are Lincolnshire:
Boston (37%)
North Lincolnshire (24%)
East Lyndsey (47%)

The other one is Rutland (55%)

JanFebAnyMonth · 06/02/2021 21:43

Rutland?? Crikey!

Littlebelina · 06/02/2021 21:48

Rutland linked to this maybe?

www.stamfordmercury.co.uk/news/covid-outbreak-at-prison-9155147/

(Don't know enough of geography of area to say if it's cause but might explain it?)

JanFebAnyMonth · 06/02/2021 21:50

And this also from FT:

www.ft.com/content/42d6d093-868e-4cc9-828a-0b19d09977a

UK govt shouldn't be sugar-coating public info about the new variants, they are concerning - clear explanations of mutation and the variants.

JanFebAnyMonth · 06/02/2021 21:52

@Littlebelina

Rutland linked to this maybe?

www.stamfordmercury.co.uk/news/covid-outbreak-at-prison-9155147/

(Don't know enough of geography of area to say if it's cause but might explain it?)

Ah that makes sense. What needs to be known about the geography?
Littlebelina · 06/02/2021 21:56

As in I googled covid and Rutland and this came up but wasn't 100% sure it was in area of Rutland that has seen rise

boys3 · 06/02/2021 22:00

The thing about the rising cases numbers though is that they are rising. The median movement for English councils is around a 25% reduction as compared with the previous 7 day figure. So these rising areas, although not great in number, are out of kilter, no doubt for a variety of reasons.

East Lindsey looks to have jumped quite a bit, it was down just around / below the 100 / 100,000 mark a couple of weeks back. It is however one of the largest districts by area - the entirety of London would fit within it, with room left over for most of Birmingham. So the MSOA spread is quite extreme, almost every colour on the scale present including 2 with suppressed data.

Rutland, population just 40,000, seems to be heading upwards rapidly - although again home to a prison and I wonder if something is going on there?

Firefliess · 06/02/2021 22:01

I can't see the FT links as they're behind a paywall. Is anyone able to post the highlights?

boys3 · 06/02/2021 22:02

x-post with @JanFebAnyMonth on Rutland :)

JanFebAnyMonth · 06/02/2021 22:05

I found if I googled the FT articles separately I could see them.

boys3 · 06/02/2021 22:07

The prison location in Rutland matches the dark coloured MSOA with the council area. Of course what possible justification there is for Rutland being a unitary authority is difficult to fathom, but probably not a discussion for this thread.

JanFebAnyMonth · 06/02/2021 22:12

www.bostonstandard.co.uk/health/coronavirus/lincolnshire-coronavirus-infection-rate-rise-not-concerning-3123703
Local health "boss" wasn't worried on Tuesday evening....

boys3 · 06/02/2021 22:21

@JanFebAnyMonth

https://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/health/coronavirus/lincolnshire-coronavirus-infection-rate-rise-not-concerning-3123703 Local health "boss" wasn't worried on Tuesday evening....
Possibly one of the more disturbing quotes from someone who presumably as a public health consultant ought to know better.

“Numbers are getting nice and small, and the smaller the numbers get, the more liable to fluctuations they are.”

Lincolnshire's rate is around the 200 per 100,000 mark, so anyone who genuinely thinks that is low is likely to be perpetuating the problems.

Firefliess · 06/02/2021 22:24

Thanks. It's a tiny study though - out of 2000 people how many would have caught Covid? And even fewer seriously ill you would assume? Very scant on details, but will look out for the article on Monday.

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 06/02/2021 22:46

(Reuters) - British drugmaker AstraZeneca said on Saturday it believed its COVID-19 vaccine developed with the University of Oxford could protect against severe disease caused by the South African variant of the virus.

AstraZeneca confirmed that early data from a small trial, first reported by the Financial Times, had shown limited efficacy for the vaccine against mild disease primarily due to this variant.

"We do believe our vaccine could protect against severe disease, as neutralising antibody activity is equivalent to that of other COVID-19 vaccines that have demonstrated activity against more severe disease, particularly when the dosing interval is optimised to 8-12 weeks," a spokesman said in a statement.

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 06/02/2021 23:05

Also did the take this into account and use the longer gap between doses:

Oxford University conducted the so-called Oxford trial in UK and Brazil, and we have data for patients who received the vaccine in one-month interval, 2 or 3 months interval. First of all, we believe that the efficacy of one dose is sufficient: 100 percent protection against severe disease and hospitalisation, and 71-73 percent of efficacy overall. The second dose is needed for long term protection. But you get a better efficiency if you get the 2nd dose later than earlier.

MarshaBradyo · 07/02/2021 08:03

SA variant and Ox Az vaccine feels difficult and small study with median 31 not much to go on.

Seeing positive statements on other threads re more positive situation in general could mean commercial and consumer pressure strengthens.

I wonder do we know the results of the 10k tests in SA variant areas?

TeaInTheGarden · 07/02/2021 10:21

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum that’s a good point about the dosing- we now know the longer dosing is optimal. So that could improve these stats (not clear what dosing these results are based on)
So overall I think we need the data. And FT were irresponsible posting before full facts are known.

MarshaBradyo · 07/02/2021 10:33

Sarah Gilbert speaking confidently about vaccine still this morning re hospitalisation/ deaths etc which is good.

TeaInTheGarden · 07/02/2021 10:37

@MarshaBradyo where did you see Sarah Gilbert please? Would like to watch!