Should everything be reopened once the death rate drops to flu rates

[notevenat20]

If we keep on vaccinating at this rate then the death rate from covid should drop by 90% by March. At that point it really is as bad as the flu. Should everything be reopened then?

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

Actually people can get long term problems from any respiratory illness.

It’s the frequency of that though, isn’t it? I have looked, and I can’t find any information - is it 1 in 100, 1 in 1,000, 1 in 10,000? The reporting on long Covid suggests to me that it is orders of magnitude more common with Covid than other viral infections - but I can’t find any data.

That’s why I think it will be taken into account when deciding when to remove restrictions.

@Yohoheaveho

I have Googled and I can't find any comparable pandemics :)

Oh God you are going for word play aren't you.

That is are bad as when people try to win an argument by correcting someone's grammar etc

@FleetwoodRaincoat

Be aware that the vaccination rate is only half of what the government is telling you.

Everyone given the first part is counted as 1, when they receive the second part that will also be counted as a vaccination. So when the figures show 50 million vaccinations it will mean around 25 million are fully protected.

Don't think the maths is quite that but I get your point.

However most of us understand that it is only the first dose. We also understand that the first dose does provide more protection on its own than the annual flu jab.

Therefore it will have a substantial effect on the death and admissions rates. Hopefully

@inquietant

This is Chris Whitty's face on reading your post --->

Just for the avoidance of doubt though, covid is not flu.

The risk of that approach is that widely circulating covid amongst younger population a) affects working population b) higher risk of mutation that fucks the vaccine

If 2020 taught us anything, it is that gung ho = oh fuck

This!!!! Can we just do it properly this time 🤦🏻‍♀️ Do you always open the door too early on your cakes too?

[quote PuzzledObserver]@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

Actually people can get long term problems from any respiratory illness.

It’s the frequency of that though, isn’t it? I have looked, and I can’t find any information - is it 1 in 100, 1 in 1,000, 1 in 10,000? The reporting on long Covid suggests to me that it is orders of magnitude more common with Covid than other viral infections - but I can’t find any data.

That’s why I think it will be taken into account when deciding when to remove restrictions.[/quote]
I am sure there will be research and data on respiratory illness. Not an expert myself but have some knowledge as my father had TB as a child. We also have a family friend who was hospitalised in her twenties with the flu. Ever since then she lives with issues. (Hopefully she will get her covid vaccine soon as shielding since March).

As for long covid you are quite right it is too early for there to have been a decent study. However all I have read so far suggests it won't be much different from any other respiratory illness statistic wise.

I think a lot of long covid will be like Boris. A longer recovery time but ultimately they do recover in a few months. Some sadly will have a life changing condition. So far the signs are those people will be a very small percentage.

@Icanseegreenshoots

I think I will pass on the links from the sun thanks inquiet and stick to the facts.

Nice try at getting out of admitting you were wrong! I did apologise for the source but it was top on Google and I cba to search bloody Hansard for you.

Sometimes it is best to just accept when you've made an error - you said I was lying and I've posted video of it being said in parliament.

I don't even read the fucking Sun, I fucking hate that paper.

you do realise that there is fuck-all NHS cover available at the moment due to the massive overload? If you have an accident or need medical help, you are quite screwed.

yes, the lockdown is wrecking our economy. Yes, it is wrecking our lives. Yes, this could all have been avoided if we'd locked down properly last March for four months and shut the borders. But we didn''t.

cries of 'just flu' don't help.

Here it is mentioned on the Beeb (although presumably that's fake news media)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52906909

Earlier Boris Johnson told the Commons tests would be processed within 24 hours by the end of June.

He said "I can undertake to him now to get all tests turned around in 24 hours by the end of June, except for difficulties with postal tests or insuperable problems like that."

Stick to the facts indeed.

So, that's why there's been no "comparable" pandemics, because the circumstances are very different
and there have been no pandemics involving a comparable virus, ie a corona virus which behaves like this one

@Yohoheaveho

So, that's why there's been no "comparable" pandemics, because the circumstances are very different and there have been no pandemics involving a comparable virus, ie a corona virus which behaves like this one

All viruses behave like this one. This virus doesn't do anything different to any other virus.

It transmits to new hosts, has constant mutations in order to do that more efficiently etc

Why do you think its behaviour is different?

I would say one of the most reassuring thing has been that definitely does behave the same.

That is why the experts sure as they can be the vaccine will work and they can make changes to the vaccine if need be.

@Yohoheaveho

So, that's why there's been no "comparable" pandemics, because the circumstances are very different and there have been no pandemics involving a comparable virus, ie a corona virus which behaves like this one

Also you can very rarely compare anything if you are being fickle for no reason about exact conditions. So word play is being an arse!

Why do you think its behaviour is different?
Yes viruses mutate but that's not the same as saying all viruses behave in the same way.
For instance the consequences/implications of any mutations will depend on factors inherent to the virus and to the circumstances of it's host.
If we look at the measles virus:
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150521133628.htm
'While the influenza virus mutates constantly and requires a yearly shot that offers a certain percentage of protection, old reliable measles needs only a two-dose vaccine during childhood for lifelong immunity. A new study publishing May 21 in Cell Reports has an explanation: The surface proteins that the measles virus uses to enter cells are ineffective if they suffer any mutation, meaning that any changes to the virus come at a major cost'

That is why the experts sure as they can be the vaccine will work and they can make changes to the vaccine if need be.

The vaccine side of the story has definitely been the positive news in all this.

you are being fickle for no reason
I don't think I'm being fickle for no reason, I think that fact that we've not had a pandemic involving a comparable virus is entirely salient

@Yohoheaveho

There are no comparable pandemics within recorded history

What do you mean by comparable? This isn't the deadliest pandemic by a very, very long way, it isn't the only one where social distancing measures have been introduced, it isn't the only one to have had profound social, economic and political consequences. So what do you mean there hasn't been anything else like it? I'm not at all downplaying the scale of the current crisis and the loss of lives, but any historical perspective makes this look like a rather minor pandemic.

@Yohoheaveho

Why do you think its behaviour is different? Yes viruses mutate but that's not the same as saying all viruses behave in the same way. For instance the consequences/implications of any mutations will depend on factors inherent to the virus and to the circumstances of it's host. If we look at the measles virus: www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150521133628.htm 'While the influenza virus mutates constantly and requires a yearly shot that offers a certain percentage of protection, old reliable measles needs only a two-dose vaccine during childhood for lifelong immunity. A new study publishing May 21 in Cell Reports has an explanation: The surface proteins that the measles virus uses to enter cells are ineffective if they suffer any mutation, meaning that any changes to the virus come at a major cost'

My point remains the viruses mutate. That is what they do.

The goal is to spread out far and wide.

Some mutations mean that works. Some mean that fails.

The norm for most viruses seems to be they mutate the hell out of themselves. Be causing more transmitable but less deadly.

If you listen in the very first briefings back in March Whitty and co explained how viruses work.

The whole mutation thing is very hit and miss. Likely to take a few years. That is why a vaccine is important. We can hardly hang around for that or natural herd immunity.

Mind you the way the virus has just ripped through my part of London we may have partially achieved it here