Should everything be reopened once the death rate drops to flu rates

[notevenat20]

If we keep on vaccinating at this rate then the death rate from covid should drop by 90% by March. At that point it really is as bad as the flu. Should everything be reopened then?

Maybe other companies can make more vaccine and it be sold privately to boost taxes and to keep up the pace of booster jabs. Plenty of other vaccinations can be booked privately.

Although it is generally a milder illness in children but definitely COVID speaks more easily.

This thread has the usual 'unlock and fuck the consequences' posters as does every thread like this.

We have a inept and unconcerned PM so they may get what they want.

I am in favour of the approach of Devi Sridhar, amongst others, but arguing here will get us precisely nowhere.

The UK has massively fucked up.

The delays to all other health treatments from this second wave will take six years to clear.

We have huge numbers of covid deaths.

Our economy is amongst the most fucked - despite having weaker lockdowns and not trying to suppress the virus.

The virus circulating widely amongst the young risks vaccine-affecting mutations.

But I see no evidence the UK will change its failed approach, we will carry on as we have so far.

This is correct, it’s much less virulent and dangerous than flu.

People do say the strangest things. It's a little sad to discover that we are no cleverer than the crazy Americans you see in the news

"Just to be clear it is true that Covid is not flu. My question was once the number of people severely affected goes down by 90%, do we just accept the risk to the remaining 10% and move life back to normal"

As has been discussed the cohort being vaccinated are 90% of deaths, but only 25% of ICU admissions and only half of hospitalisations. We also know that they won't be protected for 3 weeks after the jab and the majority will be the Oxford vaccine with one jab so some will still be vulnerable.

I suspect the relaxation of restrictions will be very gradual seeing as how it the infection rate is allowed to climb again hospitals will be full of 40 to 60 year old and as we have already seen widespread infection in September (no where near the current level) led to the kent strain. A reckless approach of widespread infection will presumably lead to this or another variant developing the "immune escape" mutation in Manaus. That's if it does not get imported via an inadequate 5 day unenforced quarantine before then.

I doubt we will be back to "normal"until the autumn although we should get gradually closer Tobit from april

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The delays to all other health treatments from this second wave will take six years to clear.

It is sadly much worse than that. Millions of people will have died or been permanently harmed.

@CKBJ

Read the thread and just thinking...Obviously the vaccination is a good thing and people are saying it’s a possibility the COVID vaccine will need to be given yearly. If that becomes the case Do we have enough resources to vaccinate at the current scale long term? This would mean more people than the flu vaccine every year. It would be a never-ending merry-go-round. Would it be ethical say for UK to be on round 2 of vaccine say in a year when other countries haven’t even vaccinated their population once?

There are no limits to the production of the virus - new factories can be built, more staff taken on, etc. Given time, we could double, treble, quadruple the production rate.

If possible, scientifically, we could well have a vaccine to cover both the flu and covid, every Autumn, so basically just do what we do every year, maybe extend it to all adults, i.e. ramp up the production/delivery systems. Lots of GP surgeries do mass flu jabs on Saturdays in Oct/Nov/Dec - they could double the number of jabs given if they do it on Sundays too!

If the cost of extra staff, extra production, is less than the cost of future covid outbreaks, then it's a no brainer. Taxes will have to rise to pay for it, which, again, is a no brainer to avoid a repeat of 2020.

@inquietant

This thread has the usual 'unlock and fuck the consequences' posters as does every thread like this.

We have a inept and unconcerned PM so they may get what they want.

I am in favour of the approach of Devi Sridhar, amongst others, but arguing here will get us precisely nowhere.

The UK has massively fucked up.

The delays to all other health treatments from this second wave will take six years to clear.

We have huge numbers of covid deaths.

Our economy is amongst the most fucked - despite having weaker lockdowns and not trying to suppress the virus.

The virus circulating widely amongst the young risks vaccine-affecting mutations.

But I see no evidence the UK will change its failed approach, we will carry on as we have so far.

Not trying to suppress it? What planet are you on?

Devi whatever her name is wants lockdown 4evaaaaaa.

You have no real alternative, you just don't want anyone to have any freedom because you're scared, which is understandable, but not realistic.

@notevenat20

The delays to all other health treatments from this second wave will take six years to clear.

It is sadly much worse than that. Millions of people will have died or been permanently harmed.

I think 'millions' might be a little high, but yes it is fucking dreadful.

But that is the consequence of unlocking too fast and too early in the summer.

A mistake a noisy minority want to repeat

The unlock-lockdown-unlock-lockdown cycle caused by the chaos of not getting the virus under control (through surveillance, isolation, quarantine, investment) is a massive risk going forwards.

[quote inquietant]@MarshaBradyo I'm not looking forward past Feb. How can I know now a) what government will decide with respect to schools b) what will happen with societal restrictions and c) what local rates will be?

My view is Britain has been very very reckless with its population.

Do we know what the long term risks of 'mild' covid are? No. But we have a nice big pool of experimentees from our schools so we can lead the world in finding out - lucky us!

As I said upthread, gung ho = oh fuck[/quote]
It’s not letting everything go to have sat tier 2 or 3 restrictions gradually easing. Schools will be back at some point, give or take a few months in timing.

But they will be back before children are vaccinated so you might not want to think about it yet but a shame as I’m interested to know

@JS87

Boris actually admitted in the press conference yesterday when questioned about how many deaths per 100 000 would be acceptable to drop restrictions that whilst the death rate was important they had to consider hospitalisations. He said the average age in ICU is 58-60 and that covid affects many younger people and can also have long-term health implications. He admitted that if we just drop all restrictions it would run wild through the younger generations and we would still see many hospital admissions. So I think they are now finally aware that all restrictions can't just be dropped when gps 1-4 or even 1-9 are vaccinated and there will be a gradual easing of restrictions. I also think border restrictions of some kind are here to stay until at least 2022. As Chris Whitty said in the press conference a problem anywhere is a problem everywhere with this virus.

Agree with all of that.

It's not a binary choice of no restrictions or lockdown. We won't be opening everything up with no restrictions on a particular date. There's an awful lot of space between one extreme and the other. Spring/Summer/Autumn 2021 will see relaxation/removal of SOME restrictions, and retention of SOME others.

Just like last Summer when there were relaxations/restrictions removed every couple of weeks or so. I see the same happening from Easter onwards throughout the Spring/Summer.

You have no real alternative, you just don't want anyone to have any freedom because you're scared, which is understandable, but not realistic.

I'm not scared, I'm angry at the stupidity of the 'fuck it' approach.

I want the government to, for example, have proper testing.

Life has to go back to the old normal! Otherwise what's the point of it all? I hate the idea of the new normal, I want my old life back, I want play dates and softplays, I don't want to wear a mask and see people around me in masks, I don't want to be distancing forever. It has to bloody change, otherwise what's the point in the vaccine? I for one am not going to comply if they decide that this is the new way to live, fuck that! The people must be given the right to make their own choices, once all the vulnerable are vaccinated and the majority anyway, who's going to even give it another thought? I've been following the rules long enough, I can't wait to burn my mask and won't leave it a second longer than needed.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@mummyoneboy19,

No one will say exactly what will be required but, maybe, back to up to six in restaurants and homes, no large crowds at indoor events etc.

Or maybe we just get testing right and live with a working app that allows us to live a completely normal life in return for being intrusive.

But it won’t really be forever. Enough will end up vaccinated, herd immunity will gradually build and the disease will die out.

We will probably have the odd local outbreak and localised lockdown but everything else will be normal.

Pandemics end, they always have.[/quote]
The most balanced reply ..... people saying no pubs again they bring in a lot of revenue !!!!!

I think 'millions' might be a little high, but yes it is fucking dreadful

Yes on both counts. I have no idea how many people have not been able to get a hospital appointment, have had their appointments delayed or had their operations cancelled but I feel sure it's a lot. There are whole sections of the NHS that have just been shut since March. For example the pain clinic near where I live.

I don’t want to throw all restrictions away but as said this morning on the radio we may ease gradually over Spring. Then lower amount in Summer

But after hospitals can cope I can’t see why we’d keep SD restrictions

@inquietant

You have no real alternative, you just don't want anyone to have any freedom because you're scared, which is understandable, but not realistic.

I'm not scared, I'm angry at the stupidity of the 'fuck it' approach.

I want the government to, for example, have proper testing.

Proper testing? As opposed to what? We have testing. What testing to you want?

How is this a fuck it approach? We have all been locked away for a year of our lives.

@MarshaBradyo

If rates/100,000 and other factors were like last term, my kids would be in school again as they were then - but I have no idea what things will be like so I can't actually answer.

I have given up trying to predict - I didn't know the fast-spreading variant was about to emerge.

Who knows what is next?

OP, things will begin to open up once hospitals can cope. Once there is a safety margin everything will open up.

We already know this. Comparisons with flu are irrelevant.

@mummyoneboy19

I’m going to have to bow out of this thread, as unfortunately my mental health has taken an enormous decline over the last year due to lockdowns and the rhetoric surrounding covid, and this thread and it’s doom-mongering is just upsetting.

We HAVE to go back to normal - anyone who is feeling like me, please remember this and try to block out the voices of those who would like to see us cooped in our homes forever. Their opinions aren’t realistic, they’re excessive. We will soon be back to seeing our friends and family, and have our support networks back.

Oh darling I know how you feel but don't listen to pubs closing etc and it won't go back to normal as it will @PuzzledObserver seems to be one of the only ones talking sense

truely

Just to be clear we have to acknowledge at the least the possibility and quite honestly the likelihood of a mutant strain that is far more severe than this one, by doing so we can properly for a worst case scenario, and take all necessary precautions now (potentially closing borders and other measures) Yes it is an "IF" but most scientists would not agree, they would say it is not if but when. Burying our heads in the sand won't help us at all. This time - we have to be ready and properly ready for a lethal pandemic so we can cope as a country.

I hope the new strain doesn't happen, but we can't live in hope, that would be irresponsible.

There is quality of life in lower tiers, tier one and two for instance would be manageable for most people, so even if we can not return to exactly the same life as before, we may need to accept that enjoyment, connection and fulfilment will need to adapt to this for a while, not forever but for a while. We will have to learn to live in cycles too, seasonally as covid appears to do. It may be that your socialising calendar becomes June, July and August and winters are quieter.

We will find a way out though, and more to the point we are much closer to that point than we were. Every day we are getting closer to the point when life will ease.

chris witty actually said in one of his press questions last week "at some point we will accept a particular level of deaths and infections, similar to viruses like flu where approx 6-7000 die in UK every year" so yes i do think they will open up at some point when cases are low

they are not expecting to ever get to zero

Proper testing? As opposed to what? We have testing. What testing to you want?

How is this a fuck it approach? We have all been locked away for a year of our lives.

Ah, you don't seem to understand the issues. UK testing is very weak. We test for fewer symptoms than many countries, with slow turnaround times.

Then we have low isolation rates, in part due to no enforcement, in part due to low financial support to isolate.

It is our failure to have in place effective control symptoms that causes lockdown.

I don't want lockdown either.

@Pastanred

chris witty actually said in one of his press questions last week "at some point we will accept a particular level of deaths and infections, similar to viruses like flu where approx 6-7000 die in UK every year" so yes i do think they will open up at some point when cases are low

they are not expecting to ever get to zero

We are miles from 7000 per year. Of course we would never get to zero - but we are at over fifty times that level currently and deaths have not yet hit predicted daily peak.

no we are not - we are say 12 x that if we say 100,000 deaths (not cases, chris witty was talking deaths)

of course not now, but by march april if deaths get to 700 deaths/month, that would be not much different to flu etc