Should everything be reopened once the death rate drops to flu rates

[notevenat20]

If we keep on vaccinating at this rate then the death rate from covid should drop by 90% by March. At that point it really is as bad as the flu. Should everything be reopened then?

@Icanseegreenshoots

I agree with you trust if you vaccinate everyone that is most likely to end up in hospital, then you can open up and let it rip through the young because we know most of them will be completely fine.

I agree.

The issue is what happens if a new strain is introduced, and the vaccine fails or worse still kills younger people. The bigger concern now is not that we can't vaccinate the at risk groups, but whether that will protect them for all future strains, and we just can't know the answer to that.

So we stay in lockdown because of an if?

There appears to be a big spanner in the works with this though. That is "Long Covid" I know lots of viruses cause long term issues but symptoms are now being reported in children as well as adults. Yet I don't believe they plan to vaccinate children.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/13750564/kids-children-long-covid-symptoms-months/

@santanddec

Yes, that is exactly what I mean. I can live without mass gatherings, although I do miss watching football in person and live concerts, but I wouldn't consider it living without my friends and family. I don't think what I said really needs much explaining - there would be civil uproar if this continued forever.

@MrsShelton

Can’t see us ever returning to old ‘normal’

Will be a new normal

But the virus wants to live as much as we do, so it’s changing. And we have to accept that. I’ve not been overly worried throughout covid but I have been this week reading the variant news

Why won’t this new normal be no restrictions and new version of vaccine each year similar to flu?

Past all adults vaccinated that is

The vaccine is being trialled on children from 12 up.

Long covid will probably be found to be a short term thing in most adults anyway. People with longer health issues will be those with worse illnesses and that is what the oxford really is good at stopping.

Children overall don't get as sick as adults or even know they have the virus. There will always be exceptions to this. However there are exceptions to most illnesses.

[quote Northernsoulgirl45]www.thesun.co.uk/news/13750564/kids-children-long-covid-symptoms-months/[/quote]
Proper research then

A number of people have accurately pointed out that it's hospitalisations not just deaths which cause a health crisis. Vaccinations should also reduce those by a lot. No one who had the vaccine in the Oxford trial at least was hospitalised as far as I know.

So, by March 7 approx deaths due to covid should be down by 90%. If we assume no one over 70 is hospitalised due to covid at that point then hospitalisations should be approx halved?

@FoolsAssassin

Must admit, having been fairly optimistic about this year I am rapidly losing that optimism . Think there’s a long rocky road ahead.

Same here

@TrustTheGeneGenie

Ok then let's say over 45s are vaccinated. Why does it matter if cases go up in 20 somethings? They're not I'll. They're not passing it to people who will get ill enough to be admitted to hospital so do they still need to isolate? If so, why?

I think long term reduced lung function is a concern if you've 60 years of life ahead of you. As is the structural heart damage associated with covid in young healthy people.

They are just starting to research covid infertility.

I wouldn't want my kids to get mumps, I wouldn't want them to get covid.

Too many people think covid is either death or fine. This is completely wrong. It affects many organs in many ways.

Current average age of those in ICU is under 60.

Inquietant what will you do whilst waiting for vaccine for children? Will you send them to school etc

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum yes it's the Sun but I also shared a screenshot showing a BMJ opinion article.

@notevenat20

A number of people have accurately pointed out that it's hospitalisations not just deaths which cause a health crisis. Vaccinations should also reduce those by a lot. No one who had the vaccine in the Oxford trial at least was hospitalised as far as I know.

So, by March 7 approx deaths due to covid should be down by 90%. If we assume no one over 70 is hospitalised due to covid at that point then hospitalisations should be approx halved?

Nearly halved as I think 60 is mid range

But also we should see fewer healthcare isolations due to vaccine and lowering of winter pressure.

So we may have more ease around this.

I think long term reduced lung function is a concern if you've 60 years of life ahead of you. As is the structural heart damage associated with covid in young healthy people
Yeah, I'd know that having athsma but I still live my life despite it.

They are just starting to research covid infertility

I wouldn't want my kids to get mumps, I wouldn't want them to get covid

What about chi ken pox, noro, scarlet fever?

Too many people think covid is either death or fine. This is completely wrong. It affects many organs in many ways.

No, I don't think that at all, but on balance a life like this isn't worth living. I'd rather me and my child took the risks and lived a full life.

What's your alternative?

Nearly halved as I think 60 is mid range

Yes. Although we seen to be vaccinating so fast currently that a number of people under 70 will have been vaccinated too I suspect.

doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4578

Couldn't link other one.

@MarshaBradyo I'm not looking forward past Feb. How can I know now a) what government will decide with respect to schools b) what will happen with societal restrictions and c) what local rates will be?

My view is Britain has been very very reckless with its population.

Do we know what the long term risks of 'mild' covid are? No. But we have a nice big pool of experimentees from our schools so we can lead the world in finding out - lucky us!

As I said upthread, gung ho = oh fuck

[quote inquietant]@MarshaBradyo I'm not looking forward past Feb. How can I know now a) what government will decide with respect to schools b) what will happen with societal restrictions and c) what local rates will be?

My view is Britain has been very very reckless with its population.

Do we know what the long term risks of 'mild' covid are? No. But we have a nice big pool of experimentees from our schools so we can lead the world in finding out - lucky us!

As I said upthread, gung ho = oh fuck[/quote]
Ah so you don't have an alternative to locking everyone up. Thought as much.

Just for the avoidance of doubt though, covid is not flu

This is correct, it’s much less virulent and dangerous than flu. Flu unvaccinated has a ten percent death rate, hence why six billion people globally are vaccinated against it annually, and rhe who wants it increased to ten billion.

What's your alternative?

Listen to scientists.

OP there will come a point where over 50s are largely protected from death by Covid due to vaccination. But the rest of the under 50s and children will have no such protection.

So the death rate will fall, and a part of that fall will be because the older population are protected.

Sounds like 'I'm alright Jack coz I'm over 50 to me'.

I getting sick of young people putting lives on hold to protect older people when it's looking increasingly clear that they won't repay the favour once they are vaccinated.

Maybe they will think again when their vaccination cover wanes, and but then it will be too late to convince the younger population to put others first.

Read the thread and just thinking...Obviously the vaccination is a good thing and people are saying it’s a possibility the COVID vaccine will need to be given yearly. If that becomes the case Do we have enough resources to vaccinate at the current scale long term? This would mean more people than the flu vaccine every year. It would be a never-ending merry-go-round. Would it be ethical say for UK to be on round 2 of vaccine say in a year when other countries haven’t even vaccinated their population once?

@Bluntness100 really?

@inquietant

What's your alternative?

Listen to scientists.

And when they release restrictions because they actually only care about hospitalisations not individuals? Then what?