Should everything be reopened once the death rate drops to flu rates

[notevenat20]

If we keep on vaccinating at this rate then the death rate from covid should drop by 90% by March. At that point it really is as bad as the flu. Should everything be reopened then?

@mummyoneboy19,

When we get to the stage where hospitals can cope with the number of patients who arrive through normal mixing.

We can cope with mild restrictions pretty much indefinitely, and they should be mild within a few months.

What is the realistic alternative?

@TheReluctantPhoenix

So when a high enough proportion of the population is vaccinated, as per the OP then.

Nobody who advocates restrictions indefinitely never says what these restrictions will be though.

Yeah everything should be opened Asap.

As others have pointed out these lockdowns are not to to stop the death rate but to help the NHS.

@KihoBebiluPute

It's not just about the death rate but also about the hospitalization rate.

It's also about the rate of increase of these rates.

Covid is not flu.

An "acceptable" level of death rate may only be achievable by continuing to have some restrictions in place because otherwise things go up exponentially and quickly become unacceptable. On a population level you only get to find out whether something was a terrible idea a couple of weeks later and it takes months of even tougher restrictions to recover if a relaxation happens too soon so it is best to be cautious.

How will things go up exponentially when the people most vulnerable are vaccinated? Ok maybe cases in younger people will go up exponentially but why does that matter if they're not unwell or passing It to anyone that becomes unwell enough for hospital admission?

@mummyoneboy19,

No one will say exactly what will be required but, maybe, back to up to six in restaurants and homes, no large crowds at indoor events etc.

Or maybe we just get testing right and live with a working app that allows us to live a completely normal life in return for being intrusive.

But it won’t really be forever. Enough will end up vaccinated, herd immunity will gradually build and the disease will die out.

We will probably have the odd local outbreak and localised lockdown but everything else will be normal.

Pandemics end, they always have.

@mummyoneboy19

But when do we finally say enough is enough and do away with all restrictions? We can’t live “restricted” forever.

Presumably the vast majority of restrictions will be scrapped, by when we're at a level where infections/death rates are low enough to be able to cope with, i.e. similar to other illnesses/diseases, AND the "R" rate is low enough (due to herd immunity and vaccinations) that we won't have exponential growth.

But as for "all" restrictions lifted and everything going back to how we were in 2019, I think that's a very long way off, if ever. There'll be some residual restrictions that will remain a long time, i.e. those most risky, but they'll be rare and won't affect the majority of people. There may also be things that stay around semi-permanently, such as freedom to wear masks if you want to, plastic screens at counters, some restrictions of numbers at very large gatherings, some travel restrictions to/from some other countries, changed societal habits such as not shaking hands/hugging strangers, etc etc.

The death rate is a function of how many people are infected.
If a large number of people are infected, there can still ge a large number of hospitalisations and deaths even if the death rate is low.

Think 10% of 100 people would be 10 deaths.
But 2% of 1000 people is 20 deaths.

Mostly, yes.

However, border controls will have to remain stricter for longer, due to the risk of new mutations. PCR tests and airport hotel quarantine for several days, OR a vaccine certificate. I think this will have to remain in place for a while, unfortunately.

Other things can open up.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@mummyoneboy19,

When we get to the stage where hospitals can cope with the number of patients who arrive through normal mixing.

We can cope with mild restrictions pretty much indefinitely, and they should be mild within a few months.

What is the realistic alternative?[/quote]
Who's "we" most of us don't want "mild" restrictions. The last restrictions to be dropped last time were seeing other people which is the main thing most people wanted to do.

How will things go up exponentially when the people most vulnerable are vaccinated? Ok maybe cases in younger people will go up exponentially but why does that matter if they're not unwell or passing It to anyone that becomes unwell enough for hospital admission?

That depends on how successful the vaccines are, how many people are vaccinated, potential different strains, etc., etc. That's why it needs to be a gradual and controlled relaxation of the restrictions. Better to do it slowly and carefully, increasing the chances of not having to reintroduce them, than going gung-ho like we did last Summer and ending up in lockdown again. Slow and steady wins the race!

Personally I feel that once the vulnerable have been vaccinated and hospitals can cope with the rate of infections (like in a regular flu year) we need to be lifting ALL restrictions and getting back to normal.

Living a restricted life isn’t sustainable and brings a whole host of other problems with it. Whilst I recognise some people are very frightened, and others are quite enjoying it, the vast majority recognise the threat (of death/long term effects) to the majority is minimal and want their lives back.

@TheReluctantPhoenix

What mild restrictions do you think would feel OK to people in the longer term? For me, I'd be happy to have temp checks forever if needed and it's not the end of the world to wear a mask in the supermarket. Everything else is causing problems and contributing to life feeling pretty (or more than pretty) pointless right now. I am buoying myself up by reminder myself that at some point we can start living life again.

The schools at the very least shouid be open as soon as is possible, when/if the vaccination plan up to the 15th Feb is on track and nothing else is introduced into the picture.

It has to be a national priority to do that.

I fear too many people are waiting for Absolute Safety.

COVID is much more infectious than flu. It also causes more severe disease in younger people (especially the 50-70 age group, but in all ages groups except children) which is the reason for pressure on the NHS. Vaccinating over 80s reduces the death rate but may not initially reduce NHS pressure because most people in ICU are under 80.

I'd expect some restrictions to be lifted as quickly as possible - eg it makes sense to reopen schools as soon as practically possible - but others to be kept for longer, such as mask mandates where they exist (since wearing a mask is for most people a very minor and well-supported restriction), restrictions on large public events etc.

@mummyoneboy19

Personally I feel that once the vulnerable have been vaccinated and hospitals can cope with the rate of infections (like in a regular flu year) we need to be lifting ALL restrictions and getting back to normal.

Living a restricted life isn’t sustainable and brings a whole host of other problems with it. Whilst I recognise some people are very frightened, and others are quite enjoying it, the vast majority recognise the threat (of death/long term effects) to the majority is minimal and want their lives back.

As has been said a few times, it's not just the "vulnerable" taking up hospital beds. Some younger people need treatment too and they tend to be in hospitals longer (sorry to put it bluntly, they tend to survive with treatment whereas vulnerable tend to die pretty quickly so their place can be given to someone else!). Without restrictions, and without younger people being vaccinated, covid could rampage through the younger population very quickly, putting immense pressure on the NHS. Not only that, what about the younger workers who can't go to work - that has a knock on effect on what can be open. As lots of people have said, it's not about death rates, it's about numbers of people getting ill enough to need treatment, and that's young people too, so infection rates need to be kept under control.

I think you have to ask on basis of hospitalisation rate rather than death rate

Surely we can get back to restrictions similar to last summer?

The problem is how ill ir can make people. We can't have a huge proportion of our workforce at gone very unwell/hospitalised. Society needs so many 'critical workers' to function.
It will continue to be a balancing act.

A SAGE memeber was talking on the radio this morning, and the gist of his argument against opening everything up again in March, or whatever was that, the death rate is predicted to drop so much because it is the most elderly who are being vaccinated, and they are the group that are most likely to die. However, they are apparently not the group that are mostly transmitting covid.
So, if everything was opened up again, it would be the younger, non-vaccinated age groups who would be mixing socially , which would invariably lead to an increase in cases.
I don't think you can say that ALL younger people can have the disease without any consequences. Younger people are still dying and suffering from covid.

It seems to me that a lot of the arguments going around about reducing lockdown or not are based on 'This needs to be done so that I can get MY life back to normal, and it is not important if other people suffer for it'

Yes once the most elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated we will can return to a moderated normal way of life.

I don't expect to be dancing in heaving nightclubs or travelling without a mask, but I do think many of the safer options like eating out, shops etc will be available again. Restrictions will still be in place in terms of mixing and face coverings. I expect that to ease into the autumn once all adults are vaccinated.

What is worrying me more are the chances of travel going back to what it is was. It is obvious to me that even if you are vaccinated, many countries will not be anywhere near it - and may still have lockdowns/overwhelmed hospitals as a result - therefore posing a danger and risk to anyone travelling there. Lockdowns have got faster, so travellers can end up stranded. New strains will keep breaking out, which will mean most countries may well decide to enforce and continue with total border closure along the lines of Australia and NZ. It is fast becoming apparent to me that we have a real global problem. Not with this strain, but all the others coming down the track every week.

I feel much less optimistic as result sadly. With one or two strains, that is fine - but wave after wave of mutations is a whole different ball game, and of course the worry that one of them will be far more deadly than this one.

I think we can open up as country, if we close the borders properly. We can have a decent standard of living too, if we do that, but what that means for aviation, travel etc....I don't know.

@Kazzyhoward

Ah right then, might as well give up all hope of normality then eh? Bollocks to living our lives again 🙄

Vaccination schedules will be running alongside eased restrictions, and the government have already stated they’re planning to vaccinate as many adults as possible. Things have to get back to normal... otherwise quite frankly there’s very little point in any of this. 🤷‍♀️

Ok then let's say over 45s are vaccinated. Why does it matter if cases go up in 20 somethings? They're not I'll. They're not passing it to people who will get ill enough to be admitted to hospital so do they still need to isolate? If so, why?

YES

And then hopefully we can find the nhs properly (ha!) and let younger people, students etc get on with their lives

@foxhat,

If you look at my post above, you will see what mild restrictions I would expect.

But, ultimately, there are a variety of ways of nudging the r number down and it is up to a democratically elected government to decide. The kind of choices we may need to make though are:

Limit indoor restaurant tables to 6 vs having live premiership football and concerts with normal crowds.

Compulsory app in mobiles and isolation if told to (enforced) but all life normal apart from this (pretty much the Asian model).

Proof of vaccine before entering large events vs restrictions on large events.

I know which options I prefer but that does not matter.

We will continue to have to make ‘non normal’ choices which don’t really chime with our idea of what a free society looks like. However it is what a virus compels, not a conspiracy nor a ‘reset’.

And we do get to periodically elect the government that makes these tough choices for us.

We have hard choices to make coming down the line, probably sooner than we are ready or like to think.

Do we close the borders, vaccinate the population and have some kind of normal life? The cost to that would be business, financial loss and loss of liberty to travel to and from other countries

Or do we reopen everything, and hope a new strain doesn't come into the country and obliterate all the progress, and we are forced to start again?

That could be one of the many choices we have to make.
That and how many people we are prepared to lose for freedom.

@hamstersarse

The schools at the very least shouid be open as soon as is possible, when/if the vaccination plan up to the 15th Feb is on track and nothing else is introduced into the picture.

It has to be a national priority to do that.

I fear too many people are waiting for Absolute Safety.

I think very few people are deluded to think absolute safety is possible. Most people know that it's all about keeping numbers small enough to cope, and having an environment where the vulnerable (and worried) can choose to avoid what they receive to be risky situations (as they would have done pre covid).

Just think about norovirus. People knew it was out there and knew it spread rapidly. Precautions were taken (i.e. basic hygiene). Sometimes there were outbreaks, some people died. Vulnerable people tried to avoid potential hot spots where they could (cruises & all inclusive hotels), and took precautions/hoped for the best in potential hot spots they couldn't avoid (hospitals). Cruise firms started to take lots of extra precautions to make their guests feel safe, i.e. lots of cleaning communal areas, covering food on the buffets, hand gel dispensers everywhere. That's enough for most people to feel safer, but many vulnerable still avoid them.

I see the same happening with covid. People have different ideas of their own risks. Some are happy to be gung ho and go back to normal, others will return to normality gradually, some longer than others. The safer the environment feels, the quicker people will return to normality.

That's why restrictions will be eased slowly over time. We can't afford another "wave" if things open up to quickly and the NHS is swamped again, meaning restrictions being re-imposed. Far better to do things more slowly in the hope that there's no reversals. The economy can't cope with another lockdown.