Should everything be reopened once the death rate drops to flu rates

[notevenat20]

If we keep on vaccinating at this rate then the death rate from covid should drop by 90% by March. At that point it really is as bad as the flu. Should everything be reopened then?

@inquietant are you a scientist ? Or economist or doctor? I know you have views but jeez ... no one knows what will happen .. they said we would not have a vaccine until the end of this year ...

@Bluntness100

Just for the avoidance of doubt though, covid is not flu

This is correct, it’s much less virulent and dangerous than flu. Flu unvaccinated has a ten percent death rate, hence why six billion people globally are vaccinated against it annually, and rhe who wants it increased to ten billion.

Uh no it doesn't!

inquietant I disagree entirely with your post. We have the highest testing rates in all of Europe and compare favourably with the entire world. The testing is indeed incredibly accurate (PCR) swift results between 24-48 hours and anyone can get a test at any time.

We are NOT a police state, nor do we wish to be, so you won't see us sealing people inside their homes without food anytime soon.

Isolation rates are not low, please provide evidence and a link to confirm your claims.

We are vaccinating more people than the whole of Europe (27 countries) altogether! So you can hardly say the UK is slacking.

Agendas and UK bashing will not provide solutions, the solutions are being found by the amazing scientists in the UK and elsewhere, and doctors whom have already provided the world with many treatments that minimise the effects of covid once in hospital.

We are miles from 7000 per year. Of course we would never get to zero - but we are at over fifty times that level currently and deaths have not yet hit predicted daily peak.

This is where vaccines step in and get deaths to this much lower level

There will be, politically and societally, an ‘acceptable death rate’ for covid, because there is for everything else — cancer, pneumonia, road and traffic accident deaths, industrial accidents, etc.

As a society we haven’t worked out what that’ll be yet. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s roughly around the same level as flu/pneumonia, but at the moment it’s too soon to tell.

[quote Spiratedaway]@inquietant are you a scientist ? Or economist or doctor? I know you have views but jeez ... no one knows what will happen .. they said we would not have a vaccine until the end of this year ... [/quote]
I said upthread twice no one knows what will happen, least of all me

don't forget half the deaths are over 80 and by end of jan they will be vaccinated

the vaccines are flying out - we will be out of this quicker than many of the scaremongers predict

We are NOT a police state, nor do we wish to be, so you won't see us sealing people inside their homes without food anytime soon.

It's not quite that simple. South Korea , Japan and Taiwan are also not police states. The West in general has shown it is not capable in the way that the East seems to be.

@Icanseegreenshoots

inquietant I disagree entirely with your post. We have the highest testing rates in all of Europe and compare favourably with the entire world. The testing is indeed incredibly accurate (PCR) swift results between 24-48 hours and anyone can get a test at any time.

We are NOT a police state, nor do we wish to be, so you won't see us sealing people inside their homes without food anytime soon.

Isolation rates are not low, please provide evidence and a link to confirm your claims.

We are vaccinating more people than the whole of Europe (27 countries) altogether! So you can hardly say the UK is slacking.

Agendas and UK bashing will not provide solutions, the solutions are being found by the amazing scientists in the UK and elsewhere, and doctors whom have already provided the world with many treatments that minimise the effects of covid once in hospital.

16% of in-person tests get results in 24 hours. The promise was 100%

UK does not test for fatigue or sore throat as other nations do.

Many are not testing to avoid needing to isolate as ineligible for sick pay and sick pay is very low compared to other nations.

Vaccination - yes agree.

The UK government has handled it badly. Pretending they haven't won't get us anywhere either.

I don't think people quite understand how poorly you can be without going to hospital. My DP was very unwell with covid, and is still feeling the after effects, more than 9 months later. He didn't need to go to hospital. It's not the case that as long as you don't have to go to hospital, you're fine. Not at all. It can still be a horrible illness even with 'mild' symptoms. It can be terrifying to feel that you can't breathe, and feel that you need oxygen, but then paramedics measure it and say they can't take you in. It's so scary.

Even young and healthy people can suffer from this. They might not die, and they might not get taken to hospital, but there's no doubt that they will suffer. So therefore, no, we shouldn't be opening anything up too soon.

@MarshaBradyo you mentioned in a post above that why can't we just lift restrictions and vaccinate annually like the flu.

I'm sure that this will be what happens eventually however there might not be enough vaccines available worldwide for this to happen straight away (certainly not this autumn, perhaps from autumn 2022). Furthermore, vaccine resistant strains may arise, perhaps in parts of the world who haven't vaccinated all their population or even in the unvaccinated cohort in the UK. So there will be a period of time when restrictions may remain in some form until we are able to rapidly implement vaccination against new vaccination strains. It is likely covid is partly seasonal so restrictions will probably be less in summer months but may be needed in winter next year in some form (which Chris Whitty also mentioned in a press conference). Travel restrictions may be the last to go (quarantine on re-entry). People can say they refuse to follow restrictions as much as they want but if things are closed/ you need a PCR test to travel etc people will have no choice in the matter.

Eventually normal life will return but I think the government will be forced to make tough decisions about the risks of new strains entering from abroad if we manage to get cases down to a low level in this country by vaccination.

inquietant I don't remember anyone promising a 24 hour turnaround! It is impossible to offer with the PCR test, as the testing process does not allow for a more speedy result. We do however have the lateral tests that have a 15 minute turnaround - so that is always an option too.

There is no need to test for fatigue, and I don't know any country in the world that tests just for fatigue. I am fatigued every bloody day - shall I test every day? - of course not, that would be stupid. It is otherwise called living in pandemic.

I see you, and I think you are derailing the thread with your inaccurate posts, and I just wonder why you would want to do that.

The UK is doing brilliantly in terms of testing and vaccines, the two things that really count. And soon we will be in a strong position to get completely back on track. We have made plenty of mistakes, but we have lots of successes too.

I think the aim should be to get back to normal as soon as possible
Before more lives are destroyed by non COVID than by Covid

Johnson promised in in the HofC

Only for in-person tests, not postals. But he did make that promise. And in-person tests were about 16% a couple of weeks ago.

My posts are not as inaccurate as your own

I'm not interested in what we, or other countries, have done, not done, promised, or whatever. That's history and can't be undone. I'm sure there'll be a day of reckoning/enquiries etc in the future.

What really matters is what we're doing today, tomorrow, next week, next month, and all that is looking very positive compared to other countries.

Let's be grateful for where we are and the near future, not waste energy and headspace harping on about history. The here and now is what matters.

No

@FoolsAssassin

Must admit, having been fairly optimistic about this year I am rapidly losing that optimism . Think there’s a long rocky road ahead.

I think so too

Pandemics end, they always have
I see this phrase frequently but can you give examples? And can you say if those examples are similar enough to the current pandemic for us to be able to extrapolate?

@Kazzyhoward

I'm not interested in what we, or other countries, have done, not done, promised, or whatever. That's history and can't be undone. I'm sure there'll be a day of reckoning/enquiries etc in the future.

What really matters is what we're doing today, tomorrow, next week, next month, and all that is looking very positive compared to other countries.

Let's be grateful for where we are and the near future, not waste energy and headspace harping on about history. The here and now is what matters.

God I'm so with you on this. 'but Barnard Castle!' Change the bloody record.

Yup, mistakes have been made, as they have all over the world. We're on the way out of this now so let's work together and make it happen without further division and blame.

It's beyond tiresome.

The trouble is learning from history informs us, so those who find it boring or whatever dont have to worry themselves, but many people will think it important.

Learning from mistakes is how humans have progressed so far, it is pretty foolish not to do it.

Yes because it worked so well last time...

Anyone who believes it will all be back to normal within a year is fooling themselves.

Despite what's been said here most people do support the restrictions. There is not a majority clamouring for normality to return because not many people are that stupid. The polls bear that out. So to say otherwise just isn't true.

Some people seem unable to grasp basic science but having a tantrum and stamping your feet won't change the facts.

@inquietant

The trouble is learning from history informs us, so those who find it boring or whatever dont have to worry themselves, but many people will think it important.

Learning from mistakes is how humans have progressed so far, it is pretty foolish not to do it.

Of course "learning" from history is important, but every man and his dog whingeing and harping on about it to justify breaking rules/guidance doesn't help anyone.

We need to let the scientists "learn" from what has gone before - no one is stopping them do that, and they'll have been researching and evaluating the progress of covid for the last year and will continue to do so to give advice to the future.

Polls are irrelevant. MP votes are what matters and anyone can see that hospitals being overwhelmed is the only one pressure that gives the results for lock down.

Constituents and lobbying sectors will be putting on pressure to open all sectors when hospitalisation falls.

So by all means it’s fine to get fed up but write to your MP instead.