Should everything be reopened once the death rate drops to flu rates

[notevenat20]

If we keep on vaccinating at this rate then the death rate from covid should drop by 90% by March. At that point it really is as bad as the flu. Should everything be reopened then?

I’d be ok with tier 2 it would feel like skipping through daisies compared to this.

So I’d go for lower restrictions to check hospitals can cope

I agree with you trust if you vaccinate everyone that is most likely to end up in hospital, then you can open up and let it rip through the young because we know most of them will be completely fine.

I agree.

The issue is what happens if a new strain is introduced, and the vaccine fails or worse still kills younger people. The bigger concern now is not that we can't vaccinate the at risk groups, but whether that will protect them for all future strains, and we just can't know the answer to that.

Can’t see us ever returning to old ‘normal’

Will be a new normal

But the virus wants to live as much as we do, so it’s changing. And we have to accept that. I’ve not been overly worried throughout covid but I have been this week reading the variant news

As an example of the kind of restrictions which will stay the longest - I would say masks indoors and large gatherings.

We will come out of lockdown into Tiers and gradually move down the tiers over spring and summer. Then gradual further relaxation - Rule of 6 may become rule of 15, for example, but I doubt that all restrictions on size of gathering will go this year. They will want to see how next winter goes.

I think hand sanitiser and plastic screens will remain (though the screens are as much use as a chocolate teapot). I think masks are here to stay - not necessarily by law, but I think a lot of people will carry on using them.

kazzy I think you would be very surprised as to how risk adverse some people actually are. Particularly schools. We had numbers of people dying in single digits and they were still protesting it wasn't safe.

I’m going to have to bow out of this thread, as unfortunately my mental health has taken an enormous decline over the last year due to lockdowns and the rhetoric surrounding covid, and this thread and it’s doom-mongering is just upsetting.

We HAVE to go back to normal - anyone who is feeling like me, please remember this and try to block out the voices of those who would like to see us cooped in our homes forever. Their opinions aren’t realistic, they’re excessive. We will soon be back to seeing our friends and family, and have our support networks back.

@mummyoneboy19,

I cannot see a single poster saying people will not be able to see their friends and family on this thread.

You are actually the only one who has suggested this level of restrictions will remain beyond April or so.

mummy I think you will see your family and friends again, sooner rather than later, and tiers will be introduced again allowing for some joy at long last. You can hug your granny once she is vaccinated.

But we do have to be careful, and make the right decisions now. We need to protect our progress. Hang on in there. We are doing fantastically already 3.5 million have been vaccinated already.

@mummyoneboy19

Being realistic is’doom mongering’ now is it?

Grow up! The world has changed. New normal is not something to worry about we will find our way to a better life just with a few differences. It’s not doom and gloom, just a bit different

I think the next year will be really interesting. Even once all adults have been offered a vaccination there will still be some deaths from Covid as not everyone will accept a vaccination, and it's not 100% effective anyway. So at some point the Government is going to have to decide what level of covid-related deaths is "acceptable" if society is to return completely to normal. There has always been a tacit assumption that some level of deaths from flu is acceptable - although thousands die every year, there have never been calls for lockdowns, face coverings, or any type of societal restrictions at all to counter this - we just accept that some people will die of flu every year even though those deaths could theoretically be prevented if we took similar measures to those we have done to suppress Covid.

It will be really fascinating to see how we as a society approach this risk/ reward ratio with Covid once the threat of the NHS being overwhelmed has been overcome through vaccination.

If I was Boris Johnson, I would close the borders properly. I would put together covid quarantine facilities for those that absolutely have to travel.

I would vaccinate the population and reopen as safely as possible, and do that for one year. By then a careful judgement can be made, with evidence about the new strains and the vaccine effectiveness. If the new strains are dangerous, we would continue with zero travel. If they proved to be of no consequence, then over time we could slowly reopen the travel sector.

To me this is the only solution, and I say that as someone that lives to travel.

Hang in there? I’ve already tried to top myself because of this.

Staying things like “we will never go back to normal” and “there will be restrictions indefinitely” is irresponsible and quite frankly untrue.

In my experience you can’t hide from death forever. I know people who have died from covid, and at least treble the number of people who have been seriously affected by lockdowns. Nobody is saying covid isn’t serious - they’re saying that once the vulnerable are vaccinated we need to be opening up so that huge numbers of other people don’t become vulnerable through poverty/mental health etc etc. Vaccines can be tweaked for any mutations (as they do for flu) and rolled out to the vulnerable... as they do for flu.

As an aside, those I know who died from covid were all above average life expectancy, had multiple co-morbidities and all but 1 were on end of life care. I know a great many other people who survived it with no complications, including those with COPD and similar respiratory conditions, and they’re absolutely fine now. So yes, let’s open up as soon as the vulnerable are vaccinated... because people cannot cope with this life. It isn’t a life, and it’s not worth living.

If 2020 taught us anything, it is that gung ho = oh fuck

It's not just the death rate that is a problem. One of the reasons hospitals are so full is that actually the death rate is lower because treatments and understanding of the disease have improved. So a higher percentage survive but stay in hospital longer.

[quote MrsShelton]@mummyoneboy19

Being realistic is’doom mongering’ now is it?

Grow up! The world has changed. New normal is not something to worry about we will find our way to a better life just with a few differences. It’s not doom and gloom, just a bit different[/quote]
"New normal" definitely is something to worry about. I don't want new normal I want old normal.

@MrsShelton

You’ve told someone who has admitted their mental health has declined over the last year to “grow up”.

I’ll bet you’re the same sort of person who bleated “be kind” too.

@superking,

I often wonder what the correct decision would be were there to be no hope of vaccine or better survival rates.

I am guessing we would have to set up lots of basic field hospitals and ramp up oxygen and morphine production. We would have to also train up 10s of thousands of basic nurses, who could give, oxygen, morphine and do basic care.

At that point, I guess, we could have gone down the herd immunity route of just living normally and accepting maybe 500,000 or so dead to get herd immunity, with those getting COVID being given basic care only (oxygen, antibiotics and palliative opioids).

Given that we do have a vaccine though, I think what we are doing is better than the above alternative.

Op didn't say covid was flu, not once. Yet people are tripping over themselves to correct her.
Pandemics end.
The key is to get to the point that the NHS (or whatever crappy health service replaces it) can cope and then restrictions must be lifted. The way we are living is not sustainable in the long term. And if anyone gives me any shit about only being asked to sit on my sofa I will implode.

Safe to say, once a large proportion of people are vaccinated by say April/May, the rule breaking will start. I’m not living with these restrictions for the rest of the year, jog on. What’s the point of the vaccine?! Plus in summer, we can be outside & enjoy seeing family and friends.

I don’t expect gigs and travel this year to be honest, although I do have holidays booked abroad twice this year with full cancellation options .. but I will be seeing my friends & family at a minimum. Rules or no rules.

Boris actually admitted in the press conference yesterday when questioned about how many deaths per 100 000 would be acceptable to drop restrictions that whilst the death rate was important they had to consider hospitalisations. He said the average age in ICU is 58-60 and that covid affects many younger people and can also have long-term health implications. He admitted that if we just drop all restrictions it would run wild through the younger generations and we would still see many hospital admissions. So I think they are now finally aware that all restrictions can't just be dropped when gps 1-4 or even 1-9 are vaccinated and there will be a gradual easing of restrictions.
I also think border restrictions of some kind are here to stay until at least 2022. As Chris Whitty said in the press conference a problem anywhere is a problem everywhere with this virus.

At the end of the day, restrictions won't last forever because people won't put up with them forever. I'm following them strictly because I have been given some light at the endo f the tunnel with this vaccine but if this is still going on in a years time, myself and I expect many others would start taking their chances with the virus because otherwise what on earth is the point. Who wants to live like this forvever.

Agree that we will adapt to a new normal. This is likely to be everything open and able to see family and friends but restrictions on numbers and masks worn indoors in public spaces. Also a continued focus on hygiene and a more balanced approach to home and office working. I don’t think that such restrictions are hugely problematic and seems like a good middle ground. Will also mean support networks will be up and running for those struggling.
I am a bit concerned that international travel will continue to be a problem especially given different approaches in different places.

@MarshaBradyo

I’d be ok with tier 2 it would feel like skipping through daisies compared to this.

So I’d go for lower restrictions to check hospitals can cope

@Sittingonabench yes I agree

Not such a bad thing either in some ways

@sunsetorange

At the end of the day, restrictions won't last forever because people won't put up with them forever. I'm following them strictly because I have been given some light at the endo f the tunnel with this vaccine but if this is still going on in a years time, myself and I expect many others would start taking their chances with the virus because otherwise what on earth is the point. Who wants to live like this forvever.

When you say 'take my chances' with the virus, what do you mean? Do you mean in terms of meeting friends/family indoors etc..?

If restrictions on schools, public gatherings, travel, hospitality, working in offices are still imposed by the govt there is not much anyone can do!

@MrsShelton

Can’t see us ever returning to old ‘normal’

Will be a new normal

But the virus wants to live as much as we do, so it’s changing. And we have to accept that. I’ve not been overly worried throughout covid but I have been this week reading the variant news

So you will have read there is nothing new to see there. Viruses mutate. This one has mutations that are more transmitable. Which makes perfect sense because that helps it spread.

What also makes sense is to mutate to a version that doesn't kill or make the host bed ridden. Then it can spread even more.

So eventually those are the mutations that take over and survive. The virus isn't a thinking plotting thing. It is a simple thing.