Should everything be reopened once the death rate drops to flu rates

[notevenat20]

If we keep on vaccinating at this rate then the death rate from covid should drop by 90% by March. At that point it really is as bad as the flu. Should everything be reopened then?

We will see change people who think not are underestimating or even ignoring economic pressures.

[quote JS87]@MarshaBradyo you mentioned in a post above that why can't we just lift restrictions and vaccinate annually like the flu.

I'm sure that this will be what happens eventually however there might not be enough vaccines available worldwide for this to happen straight away (certainly not this autumn, perhaps from autumn 2022). Furthermore, vaccine resistant strains may arise, perhaps in parts of the world who haven't vaccinated all their population or even in the unvaccinated cohort in the UK. So there will be a period of time when restrictions may remain in some form until we are able to rapidly implement vaccination against new vaccination strains. It is likely covid is partly seasonal so restrictions will probably be less in summer months but may be needed in winter next year in some form (which Chris Whitty also mentioned in a press conference). Travel restrictions may be the last to go (quarantine on re-entry). People can say they refuse to follow restrictions as much as they want but if things are closed/ you need a PCR test to travel etc people will have no choice in the matter.

Eventually normal life will return but I think the government will be forced to make tough decisions about the risks of new strains entering from abroad if we manage to get cases down to a low level in this country by vaccination.[/quote]
Thanks for this. It’s a difficult time as the airline sector is one of the strongest sectors in U.K. and U.K. sure government factors its survival etc highly.

Things that I’ve picked up on are that demand seems to get PR - eg last summer with stories on increased demand and now with recent radio bits on over 50s. Talks already of a ‘difficult year’ for aviation and how this will be overturned.

I’m not sure how I feel on it as I don’t really welcome every new variant being rushed around but at same time we won’t close off after some point, eg phase 1 / 2 etc

It feels very much like two opposing strong forces atm but will see what happens

Genuinely I have never heard anyone, and I assume you mean Boris Johnson when you say 'he' promise every test result will be available in 24 hours, ever. Not ever. But you can keep saying he did, but can you please provide links to the claims you are making.

I am not smiling or grinning, because the endless negativity and false information is misleading and damaging. And as you can see on the thread many people are in a bad place.

We (the UK) are just getting on with it, and doing so in the best way possible - we are fighting a new variant as well don't forget, so this is not an easy challenge to overcome, but we are doing well inquietant

The government must love it when we tell each other to shut up about Cummings.
Problem is he (and the handling) did untold damage to morale and trust. Do we or do we not have the green light to ignore restrictions that contradict our instinct as a parent? Tell me to shut up if you like but it doesn't change the facts

Actually Chris said in a briefing that is exactly what we are aiming for and we will accept that same level of risk as the flu

@inquietant

This thread has the usual 'unlock and fuck the consequences' posters as does every thread like this.

We have a inept and unconcerned PM so they may get what they want.

I am in favour of the approach of Devi Sridhar, amongst others, but arguing here will get us precisely nowhere.

The UK has massively fucked up.

The delays to all other health treatments from this second wave will take six years to clear.

We have huge numbers of covid deaths.

Our economy is amongst the most fucked - despite having weaker lockdowns and not trying to suppress the virus.

The virus circulating widely amongst the young risks vaccine-affecting mutations.

But I see no evidence the UK will change its failed approach, we will carry on as we have so far.

So your main point is it is all the governments fault then?

Sorry I don't understand what you are trying to say here. Other than posters are stupid and the government is incompetent. Is that it?

That isn't the topic of the thread

I think we’ll start to ease restrictions bit by bit plus compliance with rules on mixing indoors will slowly crumble.
We probably won’t see thousands at the O2 watching a gig, but we’ll be able to go to restaurants and cinemas by Easter I hope.

So your main point is it is all the governments fault then?

Yeah basically

@Icanseegreenshoots

Genuinely I have never heard anyone, and I assume you mean Boris Johnson when you say 'he' promise every test result will be available in 24 hours, ever. Not ever. But you can keep saying he did, but can you please provide links to the claims you are making.

I am not smiling or grinning, because the endless negativity and false information is misleading and damaging. And as you can see on the thread many people are in a bad place.

We (the UK) are just getting on with it, and doing so in the best way possible - we are fighting a new variant as well don't forget, so this is not an easy challenge to overcome, but we are doing well inquietant

Oh yes sure. It was June 3rd 2020. Apols for it being a Sun link, was the first one that came up. www.thesun.co.uk/news/11773156/boris-promises-24-hours-test-results/

Of course you can check Hansard too.

Be aware that the vaccination rate is only half of what the government is telling you.

Everyone given the first part is counted as 1, when they receive the second part that will also be counted as a vaccination. So when the figures show 50 million vaccinations it will mean around 25 million are fully protected.

@LindaEllen

I don't think people quite understand how poorly you can be without going to hospital. My DP was very unwell with covid, and is still feeling the after effects, more than 9 months later. He didn't need to go to hospital. It's not the case that as long as you don't have to go to hospital, you're fine. Not at all. It can still be a horrible illness even with 'mild' symptoms. It can be terrifying to feel that you can't breathe, and feel that you need oxygen, but then paramedics measure it and say they can't take you in. It's so scary.

Even young and healthy people can suffer from this. They might not die, and they might not get taken to hospital, but there's no doubt that they will suffer. So therefore, no, we shouldn't be opening anything up too soon.

There are plenty of other conditions were a small percentage of the population will get some long term side effects.

We can't stay locked up forever and in fact that is going to affect peoples health too. Kids in particular.

The moment we have vaccinated enough people and the daily figures are looking better we have no choice but to open up.

@Yohoheaveho

Pandemics end, they always have I see this phrase frequently but can you give examples? And can you say if those examples are similar enough to the current pandemic for us to be able to extrapolate?

Try Google there are lots of examples and guess what the human race are still here

I have Googled and I can't find any comparable pandemics
:)

@FleetwoodRaincoat - that is not true, the information is clearly and widely available. Here is the link to the figures, second dose figures are clearly separated from first dose figures. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-people_who_have_received_vaccinations_by_report_date_daily
Select "data"; to end of day 14th these are the numbers:
United Kingdom 1st dose total - 3,234,946
United Kingdom 2nd dose total - 443,234.

@NastyBlouse

There will be, politically and societally, an ‘acceptable death rate’ for covid, because there is for everything else — cancer, pneumonia, road and traffic accident deaths, industrial accidents, etc.

As a society we haven’t worked out what that’ll be yet. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s roughly around the same level as flu/pneumonia, but at the moment it’s too soon to tell.

I agree with this as far as deaths go.

However, I don’t think flu causes long term effects in the same way, does it? At least, I’ve never heard of it. I think long Covid will be part of the calculation as well. I think that when information about long Covid becomes clearer, that may persuade some younger vaccine refuseniks to have it.

Having said the above - I am an optimist on the duration of immunity, based on the similarity to SARS. I don’t think we are going to need mass vaccination on an ongoing basis. Only significant vaccine escape through mutation would make that necessary.

Longer term, I can see vaccines being administered in school to 16-year-olds. That will be the way that most people receive theirs, and it will become unremarkable.

@DecemberSun

Anyone who believes it will all be back to normal within a year is fooling themselves.

Despite what's been said here most people do support the restrictions. There is not a majority clamouring for normality to return because not many people are that stupid. The polls bear that out. So to say otherwise just isn't true.

Some people seem unable to grasp basic science but having a tantrum and stamping your feet won't change the facts.

I think the issue here is people wanting to stay lin lockdown longer than necessary.

Most people here saying about opening up as soon as possible realise restrictions will still be needed for some time.

I reckon not many people in society want lockdown and no schools for no reason at all. What we are saying is the vaccination program will get main groups done. Then the country needs to open up with some restrictions as soon as possible.

We will of course continue to vaccinate whilst things get back to normal ish

@Yohoheaveho

I have Googled and I can't find any comparable pandemics :)

Ok I am not going to give you a lesson in research. So go back and try again. That was far to quick. You obviously didn't try hard enough.

I sound like I am back at work

PuzzledObserver

*Actually people can get long term problems from any respiratory illness.

*The oxford has show itself to be excellent at reducing the nastiness of the illness. So if you do still manage to catch it after vaccination hopefully long term problems would happen.

*They are trailing the vaccine on ages12 and over now. So long term it could be offered to secondary school children.

There are no comparable pandemics within recorded history

Even whitty said their will come a point when you have to accept getting back to normal and that it will still unfortunately cause deaths, like the flu , think its 10,000 or something average but bad years can be a lit higher.
This may not be for a while and until we get vaccinations in place no one can be sure , we also don't know if vaccinations may help stop transmission , I don't believe in a new normal as such , maybe small changes but shops / entertainment cannot be closed or disappear forever what would be the point.
There is also chance it could mutate and cause less illness. This is how I am looking it anyway there are as many ifs and maybe's that may be positive as negative

Also yes I do think things restrictions will be lifted slowly and that makes sense, also every lift in restriction gives you one more thing you can so so if gives people hope and then they can see impact.
Masks wearing in shops is easy to leave in place for a long time with little personal affect on the majority.
Banning mixing long term has more of an effect so likely to be introduced bit by bit ,outside ltd numbers , then maybe small groups inside, think pubs will be expected to keep tables 2 m apart and things like that , for prob some time, and large group events may not happen at all this year.
But I think we will have a better idea may / june time of how things look long term.

Everyone given the first part is counted as 1, when they receive the second part that will also be counted as a vaccination.

This is not really accurate. The official govt dashboard website explicitly tells you how many 1st and 2nd doses.

@Yohoheaveho

There are no comparable pandemics within recorded history

Exactly this. Previous pandemics have been when there wasn't such widespread foreign travel, that has quickened the spread between countries without a doubt.

Also, the internet, online shopping, working from home, remote learning, etc couldn't have happened before most of us had internet/broadband. We really couldn't have "locked down" everything a decade ago like we do today because everything would grind to a halt.

So, that's why there's been no "comparable" pandemics, because the circumstances are very different.

I think I will pass on the links from the sun thanks inquiet and stick to the facts.

Lockdown fanatics are few and far between in real life I suspect, and many live behind keyboards for a reason.

Once the most vulnerable are vaccinated, regardless we should be reopening everything that is low risk - dependent on the local infection rates/hospital capacity. Beyond allowing the hospitals to manage our way out of lockdown, ie carefully and thoughtfully.

Big crowds and sporting events should be postponed until herd immunity is proved, and the minimum of restrictions should apply once most adults have had a vaccine.

What to do about new strains, that is a separate issue for now, but the reopening of society, beginning with schools should start to happen in the latter part of February with a tier 3 or under situation being present by the end of March slowly moving areas down as the virus recedes/is hindered by the vaccine.

We are through the worst for now, and by the end of next week we will have a good idea of what February will look like.

People should avoid meeting in households until the autumn when everyone is vaccinated over the age of 18. Gardens, restaurants etc all possible but household meetings should be limited for now.