Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

- isolate ppl opting for the vacc
- test everyone before giving vacc
- isolate for further 2 weeks

Well that is what is happening in care homes. They are isolated, they are tested every week, it would be relatively easy to time it so their vaccination appointments are for day their results come through.
They will continue to isolate in the homes until visitors are allowed back in, maybe 2 weeks probably longer.

@Hardbackwriter
You'd end up with a lot more vaccines left at the end, and a lot more people who died waiting for the vaccine - is that really a good outcome
Why would I end up with a lot more leftovers?

Ok, I see your point re:death. We don't agree. I think UK is sacrificing a lot at the altar of populism and a good PR opportunity.
Let's assume that the PCR testing labs could prioritize "waiting for jab" samples and get it turned around always in 24 hours. I genuinely don't think that people waiting for a jab could not stay put on their behinds for that 1 extra day. Or that carers couldn't take extra precautions.
But I'm fully open for debate as it might turn out that I'm totally wrong.

I also would love to see a mathematical model on how many lives will be saved eg. in 1 month with a vacc that is around 50-60% efficacy vs smaller number of vaccined ppl but with 80-95% efficacy. Without taking into any other factors the math should be fairly easy for someone who understands numbers better than me :)

@ancientgran
Then the real task should be to identify what led to vaccinated ppl dying.

• did staff bring it in?
• correlation between timing of test vs jab

..... Again: some of these should be fairly easy to investigate even through data mining of existing data. Some -where did it come from- are much harder, but then there would need to be a protocol to make sure that we minimize the risk. Having a carer who comes in from 8-5, but has 3 kids in 3 different schools (in them as KW) and a non-wfh H is not minimizing risk. On a grand scale of the country this seems like a daunting exercise, but reality is that the framework needs to be thought through and written out, and then it's a much smaller scale (per trust/operator/care home) actual task and is doable in a few hours potentially. Especially if health ministry had some good facilitators to help with this risk management program/rescheduling of staff shifts, etc.... And as always. we had months to plan this.

@AnyFucker

Not sure *@Fembot123* had to come and cry in the bath.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@ancientgran
Then the real task should be to identify what led to vaccinated ppl dying.

• did staff bring it in?
• correlation between timing of test vs jab

..... Again: some of these should be fairly easy to investigate even through data mining of existing data. Some -where did it come from- are much harder, but then there would need to be a protocol to make sure that we minimize the risk. Having a carer who comes in from 8-5, but has 3 kids in 3 different schools (in them as KW) and a non-wfh H is not minimizing risk. On a grand scale of the country this seems like a daunting exercise, but reality is that the framework needs to be thought through and written out, and then it's a much smaller scale (per trust/operator/care home) actual task and is doable in a few hours potentially. Especially if health ministry had some good facilitators to help with this risk management program/rescheduling of staff shifts, etc.... And as always. we had months to plan this.[/quote] Well no one has died in the home where I work so I can't answer that. No one has had the vaccine, staff or residents.

Where did infection come from? Staff member took resident to hospital for an appointment (nothing to do with covid but other things still go on) next tests they both had it, everyone else negative, following week other staff members and residents had it, following week more had it. All clear now and waiting for the vaccine.

It's always going to be brought in by staff unless they all move in which isn't feasible except for a very short period of time, as has happened at a few places.

TheSunIsStillShining, I don't think you have any idea how complicated some of your plans are. Do you think staff with children/partners should all be furloughed? Social care is understaffed as it is, it wouldn't be possible.

The idea that this could all be sorted in two hours is truly amazing and if you think you can work it out I'm sure everyone would be grateful.

I have a relative in a care home, in her home the staff moved in for 3 months and locked down. They slept in caravans on the car park. They still had an outbreak, you can't keep everyone out. GP and commmunity nurses visited, food was delivered, people at end of life (not covid) had visitors. Who knows who brought it in.

Care homes are doing everything they can to minimize risk, at my home we were covid free until December and the hospital visit. I think we did well but nothing is perfect.

@TheSunIsStillShining - the JCVI reviewed factors and decided that risk of death and then risk of hospitalisation are the key criteria for vaccination. You may not agree with their decision, but that doesn't mean it hasn't been considered and debated; you can read the details behind the decision here: www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi-30-december-2020.

Likewise care homes; you can't honestly think there are no protocols in place to try to limit infections, there have been protocols since March and they've been updated when issues were found, you can read all the details here: www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-admission-and-care-of-people-in-care-homes. You'd struggle to find people working in care homes who don't care about the residents. The fact there are so many outbreaks should be answering your first question about why they have been considered top priority!! Logistics making that challenging hasn't changed the intent that vaccinating as many as possible in care homes is hoped to at least reduce illness and deaths.

@lonelyplanet i wonder if we are the same area. Is your area still on the rise in the east? I got the same email yesterday to sign up as frontline education staff but haven't heard anything about teachers being prioritised nationally. My CEV mum hasn't heard yet and i am desperate for her to have it, good to hear over 70s are getting their letters in your area. At least if i have it as the most risky person in my family, i have less chance of passing it on (although i know they haven't proved sterilising qualities).

I haven't seen this mentioned but very promising initial results of study in Israel that pfizer vaccine prevents transmission.
It's from the Daily Telegraph

"Pfizer vaccine recipients are unlikely to transmit the virus to others, according to the author of an Israeli study.

Participants in the survey developed up to 20 times more antibodies within a week of receiving the second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

The survey, which reviewed data from 102 of about 1,000 of the Sheba Medical Centre’s medical staff who have received both shots, showed that only two subjects have developed low amounts of antibodies - one of the subjects suffered from a compromised immune system.

There was no explanation for why the second person did not develop antibodies, and the hospital said it was investigating the matter.

The rest - 98 per cent - have developed levels of antibodies that were even higher than patients who have recovered from a serious coronavirus-induced condition, the hospital said in a statement released on Monday.

How does the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine work Professor Gili Regev-Yohai, director of Sheba’s Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, said that people who received both doses of the vaccine will most likely not become carriers of the virus and will not spread it further due to the high level of antibodies they have obtained.

It is the first indication that a Covid-19 vaccine may stop transmission."

BBC news tonight

ONs says 25% of all covid deaths were in care homes

@ancientgran
TheSunIsStillShining, I don't think you have any idea how complicated some of your plans are.

I am more than aware how complicated my ideas are. But we do have a gov with resources and the time (past many months) + expertise in theory to solve these....
And if there would have been a rallying cry for ideas from heads/ppl on the ground I'm sure that there are many who could have come up with viable solution pieces.

@teta

Yes I think we may be in the same area. *@madhair* it's a big jump up isn't it? One in-hospital death & 18 care home deaths has been notified for today. My small town are still vaccinating the care homes & haven't even started on the over 80's yet.

Yes, that's where I am. One of the larger towns in the county and quite a lot have had vaccinations I think but they've not got through all over 80s yet at all, many not even been notified of when theirs will be. I'm ECV and might have a long wait...

@MRex
There have been protocols for schools and look how well that went.
Tbf I don't think that care home staff, or HTs for that matter, are stupid or deliberately not following guidance. I have to assume that these people are doing everything that is being asked of them and following guidance. Like our headmaster in school. And yet just before xmas they ended up with almost all SLT and many teachers catching covid, 20+ pupils also catching it. And they did everything to the letter. Just the "letter" was flawed in so many places.

I have a feeling (nothing more) that heads of anything are not that well versed in virology, epidemic controls and such. And because they have a full time job, maybe a family, a life they don't spend time thinking things through. And it is perfectly fine that they don't. They have to be experts in their fields, not reading up/thinking about virus transmission paths and infections. And this is where incoherent comms make the most damage.

And I also understand that if there is a leader who knows better s/he will still be more compliant to guidance and will question their own knowledge before questioning official opinion. Because it's ingrained in most ppl that gov knows better, they are there to take care of us, they have looked at it from all angles and they are working with the best ppl in their fields.
And it has transpired in the past year that this is not the case. Yet a shift in attitude is only towards ppl ditching gov guidance and finding escape routes without actually thinking through actions and consequences.
There is no traction to Indie sage or I can think of no other organized comm that is about explaining correlation/causality/facts/actions and consequences.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@ancientgran
TheSunIsStillShining, I don't think you have any idea how complicated some of your plans are.

I am more than aware how complicated my ideas are. But we do have a gov with resources and the time (past many months) + expertise in theory to solve these....
And if there would have been a rallying cry for ideas from heads/ppl on the ground I'm sure that there are many who could have come up with viable solution pieces.[/quote]
Gosh, how insightful. Ask experts for solutions. Now why didn't they think of that. Who on earth do you think makes these decisions? Bob from accounts?

You seem to believe that the people making these decisions are clueless. You have no idea of what has gone on behind the scenes. Every conceivable plan was considered by teams of expert people who are invested in getting the best out of the vaccination programme for the health of the nation.

Every conceivable plan was considered by teams of expert people who are invested in getting the best out of the vaccination programme for the health of the nation.

Do you really actually believe this?? After Serco, gcse/A-level/schools are safe, eoho, etc?
And the actual fact that they are going directly against all data and recommendation from the manufacturer re:dosage. And they are doing it based on a hunch. And not even following up. Or at least not making it public if they do.

Re the Pfizer vaccine, looks like good news from Israel that the two dose regimen is potentially even more effective than we thought, but unfortunate that the one dose is looking less effective potentially even than Pfizer’s conservative estimate.

I wonder if we are going to find, with different populations, covid strains, dosing regimens and other variables, that we do diverge quite a lot in the observed efficacy from what was found in phase 3 studies for vaccines.

That article about Israel doesn’t mention of the people that tested positive for seriously ill or not, which is key information. Also, it could be that immunity from one dose was higher at 3 weeks, but that wasn’t reported on. So lots of unanswered questions, I hope the UK scientists can shed some light.

It also seems like there was a 33% reduction of positivity rate in the vaccined group compared to the control group after 14 days. (I think it was in a sky news article)
This means that it does prevent transmission to some extent, but I wonder if it's going to be enough prevention to counteract the UK/SA variant's upgraded transmissibility. If it does than there is a potential for it to bring the R rate down as a side effect. Which is good for the genpop who are not yet vaccinated. Right?
Given how the israelis treat this is an experiment, I wonder if they will release trial-like data with info on how much it prevents transmission in what strain. But in light of their potential deal with P. it might not be public info. We'll see.....

New thread needed!

(I just got very panicky and light-headed watching that bbc report today from in London hospital so will probably be avoiding news videos for a while and just sticking with data. )

happy to oblige

New Thread