Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

On vaccination- My parents work in a GP vaccine hub- They find out what they are getting and when they are getting it on Sunday( I think) and plan accordingly.
On hospital admissions, It has been all over our local press (Newcastle) about Covid patients being transfered up here as we have capacity.. we are currently, I believe below the peak we had up here in November that no one talks about and didn't cause a national lockdown, whose admissions data would that show up on?

@AnyFucker

Six o'clock news on BBC 1 really went for the stark truths of ICU and the strain on hospital mortuaries this evening

I have been redeployed to covid ICU and I am feeling a bit destroyed by that report, tbh.

Gosh AnyFucker, wishing you strength to your arm.

I did phone my Trust to see if there's anything I can do, I am a bit stuck as I am still shielding and still awaiting the jab!

The fact that hospital numbers are reported by hospital trust and not by normal geography (LA, region, etc) I am pretty sure must mean it's the numbers in that hospital, not the home address of all the patients in hospital. So London admissions falling could be because of the earlier call in cases in London, or could also be because London hospitals filled up earlier, so only now admit as many as they can discharge, with other admissions going elsewhere in the country. You can't tell which from the data in the dashboard.

"There are reports left, right and center about 50+ if they have the vacc they will be going on holiday. Hurrah for them, but I actually would need to go and get a job and my kid would need to be in school. "

I have only seen that on here, but even if it is the press I would be very sceptical of deliberately divisive journalism. For starters you make it sound like 50+ are all retired with adult kids. I am 50 and have a child in primary, two in secondary and one at college. I am also expecting to work for the next 17 years, and I am not expecting to be vaccinated until the Summer in any case.

Even if I had been vaccinated, how could I go on holiday? There's no travel allowed. Yes I guess I think "once I am vaccinated maybe one thing I can look forward to will be going away on holiday again" - but that's not the same as "Ha ha you fuckers! I am off to Lanzarote with my shiny new vaccine certificate, suckers, eat my dust!"

Don't get pulled in by this sort of thing.

Fireflies I remember someone suggesting that about a week ago, yes.

@sirfredfredgeorge I agree (can't remember what yr point was, on app so can't see rest of thread as I type, but I thought it was a good one!)

Thinking about it, I guess the kind of transfer to, e.g. Newcastle, described are presumably a red herring for admissions - they say they're transferring them for the ICU capacity, so those patients are surely already in hospitals and so might look like a London discharge in the data, but not like an admission to hospital that didn't happen (though would look like an ICU admission that didn't happen for London)?

@littleowl1

I am just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on this:

www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

I still can't quite get over the drop in admissions in London and South East.

The more I think about it, I am just not sure I trust it. Don't get me wrong - I am thrilled to see it.

But the timing just doesn't add up. Does it?

Could cases be diverted to other hospitals outside regions? I am not sure how likely this would be to effect the charts at regional level as only border hospitals would surely divert outside the region.

I am rambling - I guess the summary is that I would have expected admissions not to start to fall until perhaps a week or so after the cases peak? What am I missing?

The hospitals are full - my friend's trust had two free beds when I talked to him last week.

@TheSunIsStillShining yr points are very good too, albeit worrying.

To whoever it was who posted that - Maybe a better phrase than "wasted vaccines" would be "vaccines, sadly given at too late a point in the pandemic for that care home/resident" longer winded, obvs. And sounds like there's blame attached, which there isn't. Will think on't.

How far that applies to admissions more broadly I don't know - are they sending ambulances straight to other hospitals or are they moving people once admitted? They'd have the same impact on numbers in hospital, but not on admissions. Again, I can't find anything that puts any sort of figures or details on this.

I think that covid patients stay for longer in ICU- 12 days instead of 5 on average I think. A relatively high proportion need hospitalisaton and then they often need lengthy stays.

So it may be that the high numbers already admitted are now filling the hospitals, and staying, so the rate of new admissions is slowing, but the pressure on hospitals might be even higher?

(But correct me if you know I am wrong please)

@RosesforMama
I have a feeling that by summer -again- it's going to be free travel. Thus my point of holidays is sadly valid (imo).

@JanuaryChill
One issue that I have been struggling with in the UK is that "we don't play the blame game" mentality. No, we should never do that. BUT! identifying a problem, identifying the root cause is necessary. In any organization we need to know if it's receptionist Mary giving out wrong badges because she is an idiot or if she has no idea what the process is. In both cases there are processes and/or training to be had.
So in this case I do want to put "blame" on gov for not thinking it through and organizing it better. It's a wasted opportunity.
And you can sugarcoat it with nice words the fact remains: from a very-very limited supply the UK have misused/wasted x amount that could have been prevented. Emphasis on the last part.

Hospital patients are already being released to care home. It was on I think the BBC news today. A care home where the residents had been vaccinated on New year's Eve. The hospital patient became very ill & one of the vaccinated became positive but showed no symptoms.

My local county is showing 18 care home deaths in today's figures.

The thing is that testing each vaccine recipient (and why just in care homes? Surely it's as wasteful for someone to get it in the community if they're already positive?) is quite a lot of extra work and delays it for that patient by a day or two - and looking at the horrific death numbers, it's a race against time. It's not automatically beneficial to do the most efficient thing for supply if it's also slower as there will then be people who will die who wouldn't have done if they'd got their vaccine even two days earlier.

@RosesforMama I have only seen that on here, but even if it is the press I would be very sceptical of deliberately divisive journalism. For starters you make it sound like 50+ are all retired with adult kids. I am 50 and have a child in primary, two in secondary and one at college. I am also expecting to work for the next 17 years, and I am not expecting to be vaccinated until the Summer in any case.

Very true, my husband was 64 when our youngest left school, 68 when he graduated. I'm pushing 70 and he's mid 70s and we currently are parenting a GC, issues at home I won't go into but by the time he is off to uni I will be turned 70 and he might be here that long. Oh to be 50 and fancy free.

I am still working.

Head teachers in our area have all received a letter saying that due to large amounts of surplus vaccine school staff can apply for an appointment. That's great for our school, but it begs the question why there is surplus? They have already started booking appointments for the over 70s as my mum has been offered an appointment. It dies say it is the Pfizer vaccine being offered.

Care home residents are getting tested every week. Staff twice a week.

@lonelyplanet my parents turned up for their second Pfizer vaccine in Manchester. They were one of the very few. A lot didn't turn up according to the marshalling Volunteers. Maybe because in all the news programmes the story was that the patients are receiving one dose only.
Secondly a lot want the 'English' vaccine as they think it's better!

@ancientgran - Maybe announcing Slough had done 100% of care homes has focused their attention in areas where care home numbers done are low?
I think this is right. They can't allow areas to plough through "easy" cases for the money when they aren't getting through care homes and housebound. Slough has shown it can be done so get the hell on with it. Apart from a small proportion of CEV who got suddenly attached to the 70s group (a link in what the expectations add?), later stages should mostly all be easier, so it's good to force that to happen - if that's what's happening.

@TheSunIsStillShining - I'm sure you don't mean it like that, but attempting top quality care is important even if a small proportion aren't able to use it. The risk of course is that it's fever caused by vaccines themselves causing some deaths (the Pfizer in Norway question), or outsiders bringing in covid when giving vaccines, or care home staff slacking off some caution after vaccines have been given. Looking at the total numbers dying, as well as so few dying of flu and norovirus, (and most care homes Oxford not Pfizer ruling out the fever angle?)... on balance of probabilities I think it's just that the new variant is more infectious and highly prevalent. A lot of elderly always die in winter, over 1500/day on average just in England. It's clear there are much higher mortality rates for younger people than normal, and of course there was a hope that the first wave killed many who had less than a year to live, but it's hard to know without seeing the excess mortality broken down by age if these are actually much higher rates for the elderly.

@sirfredfredgeorge - So was it actually just that pretty much any containment in care homes was going to be extremely difficult because of the number of carers and visitors they have?
Larger homes had more outbreaks in the first wave, that's expected and could tie in with visitors, more recently it's just staff. A lot of mingling and close contact probably means spread is inevitable and luck is made up mostly of care home staff not being infectious at the wrong times. Staff shared across facilities is a major avoidable risk, but it's one care homes still take because with isolation periods they need someone (anyone) to work. Some places could have staff not being careful enough and management not in control enough, but would anyone ever be able tell the difference between luck and poor management?

@lonelyplanet can I ask what area you're in?
V interesting to hear school staff being offered jabs. Wonder if other frontline worker managers got that letter too.

@teta we might be in the same county as ours has reported 18 care home deaths today, a massive jump, usually 2-3 a day so there must be an outbreak somewhere. Very sad.

I saw the BBC report and it was very stark indeed. I really believe people need to see the reality like this.

@AnyFucker I'm so sorry you're struggling. Strength to you!

@MRex/@Hardbackwriter
I'm not meaning that the vacc caused the deaths by any means! My issue is that to whoever and whatever age they are giving the vacc it's without being properly thought through.
If I wanted to make sure that I am the most efficient in the usage of a limited drug here are a few steps I'd look into:

• isolate ppl opting for the vacc *
• test everyone before giving vacc **
• isolate for further 2 weeks
• make sure they understand that it's not against transmission

Atm it feels like sticking it into whoever and fingers crossed that it works for that individual and has a good PR opportunity.

*they knew when the first jabs would arrive, they could have planned for it. Especially that they have prioritized ppl in well enclosed locations (care homes), so that could have worked in their favour.
**yes, it increases time by 24 hours potentially. It doesn't matter. The death numbers we're seeing now have been "baked in" a long time ago. God, that really is an awful expression

Trying to be positive here I've just thought I haven't had a cold or chest infection this winter, I normally suffer with bad coughs (doesn't bode well for covid) and I've been known to break ribs coughing. If only I'd known that washing my hands, singing happy birthday and wearing a mask could achieve this I'd have done it years ago.

Yes I think we may be in the same area. @madhair it's a big jump up isn't it?
One in-hospital death & 18 care home deaths has been notified for today. My small town are still vaccinating the care homes & haven't even started on the over 80's yet.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]**@MRex/@Hardbackwriter
I'm not meaning that the vacc caused the deaths by any means! My issue is that to whoever and whatever age they are giving the vacc it's without being properly thought through.
If I wanted to make sure that I am the most efficient in the usage of a limited drug here are a few steps I'd look into:

• isolate ppl opting for the vacc *
• test everyone before giving vacc **
• isolate for further 2 weeks
• make sure they understand that it's not against transmission

Atm it feels like sticking it into whoever and fingers crossed that it works for that individual and has a good PR opportunity.

*they knew when the first jabs would arrive, they could have planned for it. Especially that they have prioritized ppl in well enclosed locations (care homes), so that could have worked in their favour.
**yes, it increases time by 24 hours potentially. It doesn't matter. The death numbers we're seeing now have been "baked in" a long time ago. God, that really is an awful expression[/quote]
You'd end up with a lot more vaccines left at the end, and a lot more people who died waiting for the vaccine - is that really a good outcome?

And to say delays don't matter now because the current deaths are baked in seems to be a misunderstanding - or I'm misunderstanding you. Vaccines can't change tomorrow's death numbers but they can change the numbers in a few weeks, so it matters intensely. There are people who caught Covid today who will die of it in a few weeks, and there will be people who catch it in three weeks' time and then die a few weeks after that. Hopefully fewer than caught it three weeks ago, as case numbers are falling, but still people - for a very small proportion of them if they'd got the vaccine two days earlier they wouldn't have died. But small proportions matter a lot when we're talking about hundreds of thousands of people. Every day longer it takes to get vaccines out, and every delay caused by letting the perfect be the enemy of the good, will cost lives.

The real risk here is leaving people unvaccinated unnecessarily, not vaccinating too many people unnecessarily.

This isn’t what we want www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped