Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thanks to everyone on these threads - they've been a mine of fabulous information from the beginning & I know that my pandemic experience would have been much the poorer without them.

Does anyone know if there is any consideration of the possibility that current asymptomatic positives may be from previous infection? Or does that not matter in the wider scheme of things?

@AyeRobot Do you mean for PCR or LFD tests?

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]Here is a more reassuring take mobile.twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351264388284624897?s=20[/quote]
@everythingthelighttouches My calming technique in the first wave was watching lambing on Twitter. This time it's sea shanties.

Andrew Croxford - another one to follow. Who would have thought this time last year that my Twitter feed would be dominated by virologists, epidemiologists and sea shanties.

About one in 10 people across the UK tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies in December, roughly double the October figure, data has shown.

BBC reporting on ONS figures.

@Redlocks28 Yes, agree that’s the main controversy.

I’m still personally not clear how bad of an idea that is. Partly depends on how good the tests are at identifying infectiousness, and I remain unclear on the evidence there. However, some possible benefits I can think of - anecdotally, schools have had varying interpretations of close contact - so school policy might have actually sent some close contacts back anyway, meaning that using the tests could still be an improvement on that situation. Secondly, if the tests do pick up an infectious person, not only do they isolate but you can set on motion a second trail of contact tracing, testing and potential isolation. Of course they could all still isolate anyway as well as testing, but if you quickly get a situation where everyone’s off isolating, you may as well not be open and there’s no point at all. So..I can see some logic of the idea and some problems!

ATieLikeRichardGere I think I mean LFTs. Haven't quite followed my thought to the end!

Oops completely forgot to respond to thesun’s question before the weekend on p2 positivity split between LF and PCR tests and split in terms of volumes.

Therefore taking the 7 day periods to 1 jan; 8 Jan and 15 Jan

LF % of P2 tests : 15 / 34 / 37

London %s : 13 / 30 / 36

East % : 11 / 29 / 32 (lowest region)

North west %: 27 / 50 / 44 (highest)

South East% : 12 / 31 / 40

Overall P2 positivity %: 17.1 / 14.1 / 9.7

London : 25 / 19.6 / 15

P2 PCR positivity %: 19.4 / 20.1 / 14.8

London: 28.0 / 26.7 / 22.0

P2 LF positivity %: 3.0 / 2.3 / 1.3

London: 5.6 / 3.6 / 2.2

@boys3
Thanks! Where is the data from? I can't seem to find it.

So yesterday I added charts of patients in hospital to the website.
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-cases/
I've now also added charts of Daily Hospital Admissions here
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

...and I was pleasantly surprised that daily admissions in some regions seem to have topped out and are falling and there appears to be tentative signs that admissions in others are plateauing.

I didn't expect admissions to be falling anywhere yet - I guess it correlates with the earlier tier 4 restrictions over the holiday period.

I have also added charts of patients in mechanical ventilation beds.
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-ventilation/

I am struggling with whether to keep this or remove it. It is just so utterly sad. I don't know if it is right to chart something which has such a critical situation underlying it.

@littleowl1 thanks for all the data you are providing, it’s such a fantastic resource. I definitely think the new graphs are very useful and should stay. It’s a good and easy visual for where we are at with hospitals and for people to understand why the situation is so grave and can also easily show the “severity” of illness and help to predict, unfortunately, that although we are in lockdown there is a high likelihood that a lot more deaths are still to come

I didn't expect admissions to be falling anywhere yet - I guess it correlates with the earlier tier 4 restrictions over the holiday period

It would also correlate to the ending of the majority of elective in patients, and a reduction in other referrals, and the reduction in community rates - ie all the people who were entering hospital with covid will now not have equivalent people coming in, now it will even higher chance that the people are in due to covid.

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]@Redlocks28 Yes, agree that’s the main controversy.

I’m still personally not clear how bad of an idea that is. Partly depends on how good the tests are at identifying infectiousness, and I remain unclear on the evidence there. However, some possible benefits I can think of - anecdotally, schools have had varying interpretations of close contact - so school policy might have actually sent some close contacts back anyway, meaning that using the tests could still be an improvement on that situation. Secondly, if the tests do pick up an infectious person, not only do they isolate but you can set on motion a second trail of contact tracing, testing and potential isolation. Of course they could all still isolate anyway as well as testing, but if you quickly get a situation where everyone’s off isolating, you may as well not be open and there’s no point at all. So..I can see some logic of the idea and some problems![/quote]
But the proposed serial testing of close contacts in schools still relies on the school (acting still, presumably, on PHE/ DfE guidance for each case) deciding who is a close contact. The plan was not to make a wider group of students 'close contacts' and test them.

@AyeRobot my rudimentary understanding is that with the LFDs you are not going to get these sort of false positives showing up from previous infections, while it does happen with the PCR tests (though to be clear the fact that this can happen with PCR tests doesn’t mean it’s currently a significant issue distorting the overall picture of infections as some people try to argue - this tends to apply only be relevant when community circulation is low).

Anyone please correct me if I’ve got this wrong.

but if you quickly get a situation where everyone’s off isolating, you may as well not be open

There are no changes to the identification of close contacts. They’ll be identified and either doing LF tests or SI.

What would be more useful perhaps, is for the close contacts to be identified and self isolate as normal, but for other remaining class members to do the LF tests.

Absolutely @Redlocks28

I think the government's triple proposals of mass testing of students upon return to school, mass testing of staff followed by weekly testing, and serial 7 day testing of close contacts has confused everyone further.

@JanuaryChill yes I suppose! I don’t know enough. It’s pure conjecture.

@Redlocks28 yes that sounds like a logical plan.

But I am confused about what I’ve heard happening in different schools - it does seem quite varied. I suppose anecdote not to be trusted really.

Different schools are doing things differently - due to differing approaches by LAs and or Heads.

Not helped by misleading, confusing and oft-changing government guidance

At the school DH works at they're currently giving out LFTs to the staff that are in, seemingly a bit at random - I'm not sure they know what to do with them! Incidentally most of those staff shouldn't be in at all, they have a tiny handful of students in, but a bizarre number of DH's colleagues are insisting on working from the school site rather than home

Hardback, if Sen schools were partially closed (they're not) I'd be begging to work from site (I have a classroom no one else uses) as I'd need the equipment, resources etc and need to be away from kids and home schooling at home.

The training has been going on over the last couple of days re lft in schools.

From what I can see in a significantly large slt fb group, there's concern that they'll be used to argue schools are safe to open to more pupils.

Teachers are v aware of the inaccuracies.

@Hardbackwriter

At the school DH works at they're currently giving out LFTs to the staff that are in, seemingly a bit at random - I'm not sure they know what to do with them! Incidentally most of those staff shouldn't be in at all, they have a tiny handful of students in, but a bizarre number of DH's colleagues are insisting on working from the school site rather than home

Just jumping in as a lurker with a teacher husband, and I’m sorry for the anecdote on the data thread, but I thought I could add some insight - we have a baby and toddler at home and online lessons from home were enough of a nightmare (keeping toddler away and quiet, given the layout of our house) during the summer as it was, now in winter it would be even harder so he is going into school. He sees no one and wears a mask when he isn’t teaching online (which he is doing most of the time, alone in a classroom). It is a hugely better experience for the pupils.

He has an LFT test once per week in a timed slot.

I'm sure in some cases there are good reasons and I'm probably being judgemental - though they all work from school laptops whether in or not, a lot of them don't have young children, etc (and maybe I'm being a bit unfairly unsympathetic because I've not been allowed into my office since March and I've really struggled with that - I said I found it really hard on the day that DH doesn't work and so him and toddler DS are home, but was told that wasn't a good enough reason to come in, even though this conversation was in the middle of the summer, but obviously that's down to my employer not his!). I resent it slightly because DH is the only one in his department not going in most days and they keep taking decisions without him, so I feel like he's being (I'm sure completely inadvertently) a bit pressured to go in too.

Anyway, that's not data it's a derail so sorry!

@HereComesATractor I'm on mat leave now, and have pulled DS out of nursery since I finished work, so I totally get it's not easy to keep a toddler quiet during live teaching! DH is actually the only one in his department with a child under 10. But as I said, I'm probably being unfair, and it was an irrelevant aside in a data thread.