Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

The table of councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage s updated with todays data.

We now have 285/315 councils in ENgland with falling cases week-over-week. Lockdown is working it's magic thank goodness.

Some of the week-over-week changes are quite remarkable. I must add a sortable week-over-week % change column to make that easier to highlight... project for later this week..... homeschooling permitting.....

sorry this is speculation, not data
On vaccinations reported today - that’s covering yesterday’s vaccinations. Does anyone closer to the detail know whether GPs still don’t know how many vaccines they’re receiving before they receive them? That’s been reported in our local newsletter, and I’m wondering if that’s causing a drop in Monday vaccinations - I’m thinking if you don’t know how many doses you’re going to receive you would be more likely to book vaccination appointments for the middle of the week - on the assumption that vaccine deliveries to GPs are likely to happen on weekdays and if a delivery was to have half the amount or double the amount expected you would have very limited time on a Monday to call around attendees to get scheduled/rescheduled for that day, which might be encouraging surgeries to book more mid-week sessions. Coupled with the post-weekend effect whereby more people would try to get a GP appointment on a Monday than go to urgent care over the weekend, so GPs are maybe avoiding booking vaccine clinics on their “busiest day”?

Dashboard seems to be broken again for me - thank you @littleowl1 for updating the figures so quickly! Barometer looking great - Lancashire and the South West seem to be the main areas where still rising- let’s hope they can start on the downward trend soon too

@littleowl1

The table of councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage s updated with todays data.

We now have 285/315 councils in ENgland with falling cases week-over-week. Lockdown is working it's magic thank goodness.

Some of the week-over-week changes are quite remarkable. I must add a sortable week-over-week % change column to make that easier to highlight... project for later this week..... homeschooling permitting.....

Thanks, littleowl! Some astonishing drops in Essex - e.g. Basildon from 1080/100,000 to 586 or Epping Forest 1,172 to 589. Relieved to see Tendring start to drop, though still 13th worst in country.

@TheSunIsStillShining I wouldn’t consider any vaccination to the most vulnerable a wasted vaccine, but I understand what you’re asking. I don’t know about other regions, but NI announced they had carried out vaccinations in all care homes without an active outbreak, so they weren’t testing individuals, but weren’t attending where there was an outbreak.

I am just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on this:

www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

I still can't quite get over the drop in admissions in London and South East.

The more I think about it, I am just not sure I trust it. Don't get me wrong - I am thrilled to see it.

But the timing just doesn't add up. Does it?

Could cases be diverted to other hospitals outside regions? I am not sure how likely this would be to effect the charts at regional level as only border hospitals would surely divert outside the region.

I am rambling - I guess the summary is that I would have expected admissions not to start to fall until perhaps a week or so after the cases peak? What am I missing?

@littleowl1

I am just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on this:

www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

I still can't quite get over the drop in admissions in London and South East.

The more I think about it, I am just not sure I trust it. Don't get me wrong - I am thrilled to see it.

But the timing just doesn't add up. Does it?

Could cases be diverted to other hospitals outside regions? I am not sure how likely this would be to effect the charts at regional level as only border hospitals would surely divert outside the region.

I am rambling - I guess the summary is that I would have expected admissions not to start to fall until perhaps a week or so after the cases peak? What am I missing?

Again, I'm just thinking aloud here but: a) yes, I think there could be an impact of diverting to other hospitals - I remember reading that London could (just about) manage 8000 covid patients and the number has stayed just under that since 11/1, suggesting that admissions numbers are capped, and they're transferring (one hopes - rather than just not admitting) the excess. They are transferring patients well out of region, though none of the news reports I've seen on this (e.g. www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/14/struggling-london-hospitals-sending-covid-patients-to-newcastle) give any sense of the scale at which this is happening. b) You'd need to know what percentage are admitted because of Covid and what percentage are admitted for another reason but test positive you'd expect a lag for the former but not for the latter (they should fall as community rates do). I'd assume that the former is a much bigger group than the latter, but if the latter is a significant minority then I guess you'd see a visible, if modest, fall immediately as wider cases drop.

More on schools and LFTs :

www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jan/19/ministers-set-to-halt-plans-for-daily-covid-tests-in-english-schools

Very harrowing report on BBC1 just now. Don't know if anyone else saw it. Difficult viewing.

They are sending London patients to Papworth. Or they were. Papworth now full.

I think there is some stringent triage going on @littleowl1 (from what has been said by the doctors in the media) and I think a) poor patients and their families b) poor NHS staff and c) catching covid at the moment would be really unfortunate in a lot of ways.

@Piggywaspushed

More on schools and LFTs :

www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jan/19/ministers-set-to-halt-plans-for-daily-covid-tests-in-english-schools

Very harrowing report on BBC1 just now. Don't know if anyone else saw it. Difficult viewing.

About the tests?

We were watching the bbc news at 6pm and turned over as it was too harrowing with patients dying and a mortician

Six o'clock news on BBC 1 really went for the stark truths of ICU and the strain on hospital mortuaries this evening

I have been redeployed to covid ICU and I am feeling a bit destroyed by that report, tbh.

Was it the report with the man that had just lost his wife?

@AnyFucker

Six o'clock news on BBC 1 really went for the stark truths of ICU and the strain on hospital mortuaries this evening

I have been redeployed to covid ICU and I am feeling a bit destroyed by that report, tbh.

Oh @AnyFucker

Not sure @Fembot123 had to come and cry in the bath.

The BBC News for the last 2 nights has left me sobbing into a tissue. So many people will take so long to recover from this pandemic even if they didn't catch Covid. 😥

@littleowl1 your tables are helping people, keep up the good work

I don’t watch the news it does sound hard

Only the radio here when dc aren’t too loud

@AnyFucker

Not sure *@Fembot123* had to come and cry in the bath.

Don’t blame you, thank you for what you do and I really hope it starts to get better.

Thanks @Hardbackwriter

Gosh, on point a) - I think all it would take is a data-savvy, pushy journalist to deduce a fairly sensible estimation for this. It also got me thinking about geographic allocation of positive cases. When patients catch covid in hospital, I wonder where the positive case is allocated to - home address? hospital address? wonder how that is counted? it is probably buried in the NHS data disclaimer - I must dig around for it. Although - probably not a very meaningful impact in geographic allocation. It just got me thinking... Remind me a bit of the university student cases allocations in Autumn.

On point b) - reading through the data description, it would actually be incredibly easy for this data to be gathered and published. They are already gathering and including patients who test positive in hospital after admission but I suspect this is a political bomb as I suspect you could potentially deduce hospital transmitted infections. Which would cause a political and media frenzy if (when?) it occurred.

But the way the data is currently reported, you couldn't really spot a hospital outbreak with certainty if it happened. If they indicated those who tested positive in hospital as opposed to arriving with positive covid, (its just a boolean flag), it would be pretty clear or at least easy to identify possible hospital outbreaks.

Although the poor NHS - I think they are under enough pressure without that scrutiny. It's bound to happen at some point (if not already).

If they are not testing before vaccinating how do they know if there is an active outbreak? It's kind of an oxymoron.....
I still have a problem with this whole vacc priority list and how it's being done. We have the opportunity to do good, but at every turn it's just sour.

1. prioritize the 90+ vs those in close contact with others that are non HCP, like teachers
2. Everyone seems to be creeping up the list but only based on polling numbers and if it adds to popularity. Common sense and logic seem to have left the building, if it was ever there in the first place.
3. There are reports left, right and center about 50+ if they have the vacc they will be going on holiday. Hurrah for them, but I actually would need to go and get a job and my kid would need to be in school. And I'm just an example, there are many in similar shoes. I think these are a bit more pressing issues.
4. Ppls understanding is non-existent. There is no definitive proof yet that it stops spread. Yet many seem to think that it's okay to open up as soon as groups 1-4 are vaccinated... It's going to be a disaster potentially - again.
5. Making the population take part in a huge uncontrolled experiment is unethical to say the least.

Let's hope the hard hitting nature of those reports makes people comply more. The timing of them is no coincidence, of course.

On care homes, there was a widespread belief that in march april one of the reasons for large care home outbreaks was discharge to care home without test etc. (ie it was a scandal, could've been avoided etc.) This time we see care homes being heavily hit again, only with sufficient testing that I very much doubt that infectious people are being discharged there.

So was it actually just that pretty much any containment in care homes was going to be extremely difficult because of the number of carers and visitors they have?

I am pretty sure the hospitals in london and south east are full and there has been plenty of talk of diverting cases elsewhere.