Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I posted this and then realised the new thread was open so I thought I'd post it again. Thanks for the new thread.

@Perihelion MRex as well as smoking, I've wondered if using mouthwash or brushing teeth too close to taking a test, can also produce false negatives. Especially as there's some research saying that mouthwash and toothpaste can kill Covid/have a protective effect. Had that thought after taking DD for a test first thing in the morning

I know a sample of one doesn't tell us much but my son did his lateral flow test in the morning after shower and teeth, he was due to start a shift, he's a nurse working with covid patients. He got a positive so it didn't cause an issue with his. He had to have a PCR to confirm it, they didn't want him off work for ten days unless they were sure he had it, but that was later in the morning.

Yay, thank you. Don't know what I would do without this thread!

Thanks for the new thread.

Thanks for these threads, I'm a lurker on these but do have a question today. How long would we expect it to be before we see some effects of the vaccinations on hospitalisations and death rates? I think Matt Hancock was saying something about seeing an impact two weeks after the most vulnerable have been vaccinated in mid Feb, however surely we will see a more gradual effect earlier than that - we've done a third of over 80s now so in a couple of weeks what will this lead to?

@perdito @sirfredfredgeorge what on demand testing is that ? I dis read a post suggesting it was available in West London (IIRC) but I've seen nothing locally (SE London ). Nor read anything .But I could well have missed something

I think most boroughs now have it, e.g. Bromley (picking the one SE borough my geography manages to cope with) said they would from the 4th:
www.bromley.gov.uk/press/article/1716/bromley_council_launches_rapid_test_centre_to_help_stem_the_spread_of_covid-19

. How long would we expect it to be before we see some effects of the vaccinations on hospitalisations and death rates?

^^ no expert but wouldn't that be about 6 weeks? And lock down effect is about 3 weeks?

Average age of death from Covid is, notoriously, 82. Average age of hospitalisation however is about 60. Older critically ill patients are often not hospitalised.

Time for vaccination to take effect is about a week, and average time from infection to death is about 4 weeks (I think - may be shorter for older patients? Please correct if you know better).

So my gut feel assumption is that you’d expect to see a slight reduction in hospitalisation from about two weeks onwards, and a marked reduction in deaths in about a month’s time. But the impact on hospitalisation figures will be against a moving backdrop of increasing infections/new strain/Christmas/lockdowns, so it may not be visible at all unless you look at the split of admissions by age quite closely.

@beachdays123 I hope that we’ll start to see more flattening in case rates in over 80s and care home outbreaks this week - particularly in areas with higher % vaccinated/lower populations I.e. last week reports had over 60% NI care home residents vaccinated (all care homes visited except those with an active outbreak) and that the number of cases in over 80s was reducing, hopefully this week when figures are out for cases and vaccinations we’ll be able to see more clearly that this is the case, and that should greatly reduce the impact on hospitals 2 weeks from now (note: NI hospitals are at crisis point similar to London)

Thanks sirfred .Perhaps we're nor quite there yet in London .Bromley say they are prioritising front line workers and will open another site later in Jan .

My borough ( Southwark) still links to a info re testing only for those with symptoms .

Thanks for the new thread.

Average age of death from Covid is, notoriously, 82

I've seen this quoted a few times. Is this mean, mode or median?

Median I think, but given the nature of the distribution it shouldn’t make that much difference if you use mean.

Thanks for new thread

@peridito You may have missed my post on the previous thread, so I’ve pasted it below, but it does seem the testing is spreading through London:

It was just the West London councils, but universal LFT has spread to (at least) South London according to my council’s newsletter - but although it is in theory for all, the council bumph says the central testing site is aimed at people working outside the home. The more local and accessible testing in pharmacies is open to key workers, carers and volunteers only.

Checking in to the new thread

Thank you. Going to try and keep up this time.

Sorry just to add more on NI Care Home vaccinations - residents and staff in 55% of care homes have now received second vaccine doses - hopefully this will feed through to numbers very soon.

www.health-ni.gov.uk/news/vaccination-programme-latest

Merton have lateral flow testing for asymptomatic cases residents in Morden and testing for carers, key workers and volunteers at various pharmacies around the borough.

Thanks for the new thread @NoGoodPunsLeft.

Just posted this elsewhere, a useful link - locations of all current open vaccination centres: www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/hospital-hubs-and-local-vaccination-services/.

Lambeth testing
beta.lambeth.gov.uk/coronavirus-covid-19/book-rapid-covid-19-test-if-you-have-no-symptoms

Data slightly delayed. Press conference or looking for sofa?

.

Whilst we're waiting, today's overheard conversation:
Had to go to Waitrose today. Many very old ppl with their very old children. The terribly old people (4) didn't have masks on. One was asked to put one on. She replied that she had the 2 doses of vaccine so didn't need one.

Have posted this on the studies corner thread, and happy to take any discussion over there, but does anyone know about/heard of ivermectin? I've been reading a couple of things from South Africa (a friend there sent me something about it - no idea if promising or not as not really keeping up with studies of treatments/vaccines)
www.sahpra.org.za/news-and-updates/sahpras-guidance-on-the-use-of-ivermectin-in-the-prophylaxis-or-treatment-of-covid-19/

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner

@TheSunIsStillShining

Whilst we're waiting, today's overheard conversation: Had to go to Waitrose today. Many very old ppl with their very old children. The terribly old people (4) didn't have masks on. One was asked to put one on. She replied that she had the 2 doses of vaccine so didn't need one.

Bloody hell. Messaging after having the vaccine needs to be VERY CLEAR, doesn't it?!