Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

It will be interesting to see how accurate these calculations were. A 2% vacc rate is supposed to reduce risk by 40% so we should be getting there soon?

@Quarantino - the ban on leaner drivers practicing appears only ever to have been guidance not law and has now been removed from the government website! I hadn't realised it wasn't allowed either, and found out via a thread on MN, but by the time I read to the end of the thread, the guidance saying not to practice driving had been removed!

I think you're right, that relying on self reporting to assess lockdown compliance is flawed - as it's well known that people report themselves to be good citizens. Just like the total volume of alcohol people claim the consume in surveys is significantly lower than the total amount sold in shops each year. I think most of the people are keeping to the new rules most of the time. The large majority are probably within the law as the 2m thing is guidance not law, though there are clearly some who've decided they've had enough and don't comply at all.

@SilenceIsNoLongerSuspicious hopefully they will also provide a breakdown of what group those vaccinated are in I.e. over 80s or healthcare workers, so we can begin to understand what to expect in terms of impact on hospitalisations/deaths. I don’t think this is available yet for England? Has anyone come across this?

@lurker101 Looking at the whole section on vigilance and surveillance (3.24-3.33 on the link below), I suspect it’ll be by age and clinical vulnerability because those are on GP electronic health records, but that by profession probably won’t be on those records so won’t be included. The other information source is the weekly extract from the National Immunisation Management System, so it depends how they’ve specified that, but given the speed it needs to be used at point of care to maximise the number of people jabbed, I would suspect they’ve gone for the minimum of information and not included profession. But hopefully we’ll see in the next week or so.

Those paras are well worth a read for anyone worried about the safety of the vaccine - there’s proactive surveilliance for groups under-represented in trials, the MHRA will publish data on all suspected reactions to covid jabs, and quite a bit more. If there was a problem, it seems they have lots of ways of knowing about it quickly.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/951284/UK_COVID-19_vaccines_delivery_plan.pdf

Thanks @SilenceIsNoLongerSuspicious I’ve had a read through those sections now.

I was hoping they would separate it out the way NI is doing (they’re also splitting it further by healthcare trust), but if they give us age and CV I guess it matters less. I just don’t like the limited data at the minute 2.3 million vaccinated is great, but obviously as we know won’t reduce deaths/hospitalisations much in the short term if 2.2 million are healthcare workers and 100,000 over 80s

I know I can't base it on my own experiences but I see people breaking the rules all the time

I imagine you see people breaking a strict interpretation of the guidelines, is that the same as breaking the rules?

Shaming and complaining at people for doing something that has almost no impact on virus transmission is utterly the wrong message, suggesting "forgetting to use the proper entrance" is wrong rule breaking is the reason people turn off from these messages.

Does anyone know if there is data as to settings and versus infection? I would have thought test and trace would ask so they can contact people at risk.

With the media talk of increased rules, one would assume that these would be based on risk level.

It's not just communication, it's the lack of planning, assessment and data analysis.

1. In the past 11 months there would have been ample time for the gov to actually map out the real risks for each sector, each type of work/workplace.

1. they have the resources and data (or with the resources can get the data) to do cluster analysis, observational analysis,.... All this information could be used to create clear communication per sector and per individual type.

The behavioral analysis piece from King's is from April and a very small sample. I wonder if they have funding to follow up and/or expand on that. It's quite a good start, but nothing more.

re: King's doc

1. I don't see indication of educational level in there. Did I just miss it?
2. It doesn't say anything about representing the UK population. So there is a chance that this is terribly skewed?
3. I'm missing a meaningful small detail within the 3 groups: how many of them are cv or ecv or have someone in the household like that. It has a huge impact on ppls behaviour.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I know I can't base it on my own experiences but I see people breaking the rules all the time

I imagine you see people breaking a strict interpretation of the guidelines, is that the same as breaking the rules?

Shaming and complaining at people for doing something that has almost no impact on virus transmission is utterly the wrong message, suggesting "forgetting to use the proper entrance" is wrong rule breaking is the reason people turn off from these messages.

I was quoting the study re "adherence to stringent behavioural regulations" and comparing that with the widespread lack of adherence to stringent behavioural regulations that I observe to suggest that perhaps the method of self-reporting will not give you an objective measure of whether there is 90% adherence to stringent behavioural regulations.

@lurker101 - yesterday they've stated 49% over 80s and just under 25% care home residents have been vaccinated, intention to complete all care homes by end of January and over 70s (so including over 80s) by mid Feb: www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-nhs-hospitals-uk-covid-cases-lockdown-vaccine/.

Sorry typo - 40% over 80s

Personally, someone on the internet saying that not following a school's one-way system is or isn't breaking regulations would have zero impact on whether I follow the school's one-way system, but perhaps people in the other "cluster types" do change their behaviour based on this - I couldn't say for sure as the study didn't focus on this as far as I can tell.

@TheSunIsStillShining - when you don't know about something, it would be good if you would please phrase it as a question instead of a statement that no government department is doing something you've only just thought of. There has been clear sector-based guidance in place that's been updated at various points throughout. You might have noticed people mentioning schools at least, pub/ restaurants etc!
www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19

@InterfectoremVulpes - we should reach the 2% by end of January but then there's a 2-3 week lag for immunity to build up. End of Feb would be the 71%, subject to take-up. I feel optimistic about make-up, but wouldn't expect 100%.

Interesting article in the guardian from Devi Sridhar on schools and the impact on transmission ( to note not any detailed stats but she seems to be writing an early article based on the work she’s been doing for the Royal Society). Not sure it is saying anything earth shattering but it’s a balanced look.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/12/when-should-uk-schools-reopen-safe-covid

@FindHungrySamurai
Something obvious has just been pointed out to me. Israel is vaccinating at such an extraordinary rate that the rest of the world will have a solid preview of what the Pfizer vaccine can and cannot achieve on a whole population within a matter of weeks. Watch this space

I had noticed Israel way ahead.
But the way I see it, that still isnt going to show up potential long term problems. The world has to wait 8-10 years for those.

@TheSunIsStillShining

re: King's doc

1. I don't see indication of educational level in there. Did I just miss it?
2. It doesn't say anything about representing the UK population. So there is a chance that this is terribly skewed?
3. I'm missing a meaningful small detail within the 3 groups: how many of them are cv or ecv or have someone in the household like that. It has a huge impact on ppls behaviour.

There were a couple of other studies cited by the blog as well - not been able to look into them fully. The blog states there's some "observable" as well as self-reported data but haven't found that on my quick phone read -it might shed more light.

[quote littlestpogo]Interesting article in the guardian from Devi Sridhar on schools and the impact on transmission ( to note not any detailed stats but she seems to be writing an early article based on the work she’s been doing for the Royal Society). Not sure it is saying anything earth shattering but it’s a balanced look.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/12/when-should-uk-schools-reopen-safe-covid[/quote]
Thanks for that - I'm weighing up whether to send my toddler back to preschool (not full time).

Thanks @mrex I must have missed it in the conference, I think I’ll subscribe because I keep coming across interesting telegraph articles that I can’t read

Does anyone know a data related reason why Ireland (ROI) is so high now? Is it delayed Christmas catch up or actually high cases? My aunt who lives there thinks the latter, though says they do have a lot of the new strain now.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/11/reckless-christmas-rule-relaxation-blamed-for-irelands-dire-covid-surge Christmas easing?

This looks like a key data point, although 92 cases is not an enormous sample by UK standards.
www.irishnews.com/news/republicofirelandnews/2021/01/11/news/republic-of-ireland-s-covid-19-infection-rate-highest-in-world-2183795/

But the way I see it, that still isnt going to show up potential long term problems. The world has to wait 8-10 years for those.

You need to take into account that being there in 8-10 years to look at them will equally be a long term benefit.

@CatVsChristmasTree - it's the new variant, it's pushed through in NI as well. Also coming through in France and Denmark but a week behind, maybe Czech Republic too. Sadly I expect it'll affect all of Europe within weeks, even with the best will there isn't enough vaccine there for them to vaccinate quickly enough, nor do I think they can lock down for long enough to miss it while cases are low, people just won't play along. Russia could possibly create a vaccinated barrier, but they aren't getting enough take-up yet. It's all rather miserable I'm afraid.