Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

NHS published the latest hospital admission numbers for England. The numbers have been flattish for the past 4 days (3,967 - Jan 6, 3,849 - Jan 7, 3,549 - Jan 8, 3,718 - Jan 9). I am just hoping there will be no “true ups” in subsequent days.

Does anyone know why the figures are so late today?

46,129
529

*46,169

@everythingthelighttouches

Does anyone know why the figures are so late today?

Always seem to be late when there’s a press conference!

I think someone just falls asleep during the journo questions and simply forgets that they are supposed to press refresh as soon as it finishes

Still a bit of a spread across spec dates in England, although nothing too awful

10 Jan 2579

9 Jan 20578, total 22987, in contrast this time last week the total for 02 Jan was 31246

8 Jan 10072, total 36015

7 Jan 6795 , total 44679

6 Jan 1198, total 50074

It's obviously proving trickier to get it to them

What's the average size of a care home? I imagine it's actually relatively low in that there's a lot of small ones, such ones are likely more complicated to distribute to? As it has to be done currently in places with emergency care I believe, so it's moving more ill people to the vaccination centre?

@sirfred. I don't think they are trying to move care home residents to the vaccination centers. I think they're taking the vaccines into care homes, in the hope of doing them all at once, which I guess is trickier. I've also heard that they were envisaging some issues over consent in some care homes with lots of dementia patients, or others who lack capacity, but I'm not sure how substantiated this is - I think care homes are used to dealing with medical care for residents who lack capacity to consent and will have the systems in place to gain consent from relatives, attorneys, etc.

@Firefliess I can see how that works for larger care homes, who probably have a reasonable medical room available, and the vaccination team which needs to include full doctor on hand still in case of adverse reactions I believe? But once you get to the smaller ones I'm imagining a lot of time is taking up taking the team and equipment and only doing a few.

Which is why I was wondering about the average size, if the median is 100 then it's probably not a big deal, if it's nearer the dozen then it's going to take a long time if you're visiting them all.

As you say obtaining consent for everyone is tricky, and likely well worth prioritising homes where everyone can be done.

am I correct in thinking positive tests and deaths are both down today? I heard them talking on R4 earlier and they were concentrating on numbers in hospital, but didnt seem to be mentioning tests/deaths.

As everything seems very much directed on keeping everyone home as much as possible, Im wondering if they dont want to draw attention to lowering figures in any category. Or is it a weekend thing?

I am a lurker on this thread and hope you don't mind if I ask if anyone can answer 2 questions I've been wondering about:

1. A few years ago there was a focus (by the then Chief Medical Officer Sally Davies and others) on the rise of superbugs as bacteria became resistant to antibiotics. Is it a concern that the whole world is currently awash with anti bacterial soap, sprays, sanitisers? I have visions of the pandemic passing only for us to be faced with an awful Revenge of the Bacteria situation.

1. I know that better weather in spring and summer is supposedly going to make things better - speculation that the virus prefers cooler weather and also that people will be more inclined to mix outdoors which is safer. However looking at the situation in South Africa they are having very high cases and deaths (President Ramaphosa is currently making a further lockdown announcement). I don't think the figures there are very accurate purely because they aren't doing as much testing as other countries but they are clearly having a worse time now than they did in their first wave which was in their winter. Do you think that their good weather is actually helping and that their figures would be much worse if they were in winter? Or is our hope of things getting better with the weather misplaced?

@Horace123

I am a lurker on this thread and hope you don't mind if I ask if anyone can answer 2 questions I've been wondering about:

1. A few years ago there was a focus (by the then Chief Medical Officer Sally Davies and others) on the rise of superbugs as bacteria became resistant to antibiotics. Is it a concern that the whole world is currently awash with anti bacterial soap, sprays, sanitisers? I have visions of the pandemic passing only for us to be faced with an awful Revenge of the Bacteria situation.

1. I know that better weather in spring and summer is supposedly going to make things better - speculation that the virus prefers cooler weather and also that people will be more inclined to mix outdoors which is safer. However looking at the situation in South Africa they are having very high cases and deaths (President Ramaphosa is currently making a further lockdown announcement). I don't think the figures there are very accurate purely because they aren't doing as much testing as other countries but they are clearly having a worse time now than they did in their first wave which was in their winter. Do you think that their good weather is actually helping and that their figures would be much worse if they were in winter? Or is our hope of things getting better with the weather misplaced?

I bet there is a link with poverty, overcrowding and deprivation in SA townships.

@NettleTea

am I correct in thinking positive tests and deaths are both down today? I heard them talking on R4 earlier and they were concentrating on numbers in hospital, but didnt seem to be mentioning tests/deaths.

As everything seems very much directed on keeping everyone home as much as possible, Im wondering if they dont want to draw attention to lowering figures in any category. Or is it a weekend thing?

Deaths are usually low on a Monday and then there is a catch up on Tuesdays. I think hospitalisations and deaths will unfortunately continue to rise as a result of the high cases reported over the past 2-3 weeks.

The fall in cases looks like it could be genuine...unless they find a missing spreadsheet! But would make sense that they are now falling as most places were in tier 4 by 30 December and then lockdown started a few days later.

Horace123 I believe on 1, this won't be a concern, whilst the continued use of anti-biotics will remain a concern, anti-bacterial use by people will not be impacting it, they are different mechanisms, if any bacteria harmful to humans do manage to evolve against bleach/alcohol and reproduce then it would be, but this is very low risk.

Weather effects are still unknown, it's certainly not the case that covid is as seasonal as influenza, but that's about all we really know.

A local go surgery is sending a small team to our 13 person care home, they will be coming twice this week and will be able to do 20 vaccinations each time. So, residents first, then staff.

.

Care homes in the area I work are being done by the community Trust and not GP surgeries. I heard there will be a delivery of 400 Oxford vaccines for this purpose possibly next week. Average size of a care home is closer to 30 than 100, I'd guess. Plus about the same in staff. Will be a lot easier to get the Oxford one to them.

Our PCN (group of 6 surgeries) is getting one delivery of Pfizer this Friday, my surgery alone has nearly 400 over 80s and we are getting about 80 vaccines and that's for staff too (I tried to give mine up for an 80 year old but was told that wasn't allowed because I'm much more likely to catch it and am needed at work!).
Next delivery could be within a week, but no way of knowing and we may only get a few days notice!

i was so proud of the surgery going out to the old people's home near me with the Oxford vaccine.

That's good to hear @Lionlily. I think there's a lot of care homes of that kind of size. Hopefully they'll get to most of them over the coming week.

Oh and we trained everyone in preparation of needing all hands on deck (Doctors, nurses, HCAs and even a few admin staff had extra training to give vaccines) only to be told that only Doctors and nurses can give the vaccine because so far we only have PGDs (legal framework to give vaccines) that specify registered professionals (so pharmacists also allowed I assume) allowed to give the vaccine. Our staff are gutted!

Changes are going to be needed if we're going to hit that target by mid February!

[quote Quarantino]Have posted this on the studies corner thread, and happy to take any discussion over there, but does anyone know about/heard of ivermectin? I've been reading a couple of things from South Africa (a friend there sent me something about it - no idea if promising or not as not really keeping up with studies of treatments/vaccines)
www.sahpra.org.za/news-and-updates/sahpras-guidance-on-the-use-of-ivermectin-in-the-prophylaxis-or-treatment-of-covid-19/

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner[/quote]
Ivermectin is regularly used by pigeon fanciers and off label for poultry, although it has a minimum of two week egg withdrawal and it's not recommended in meat birds. It's exceedingly cheap so can see why in poorer areas it would be considered however there is little study in the majority of animals (at least in the UK) its mainly used to treat lice/mites for feather loss. Birds are quite vulnerable to respiratory infections and I've seen annecdata that ivermectin can help treat them BUT the majority of respiratory infections in chickens are caused by worms and ivermectin doesn't treat them.
At least I've got something to try when the ambulances stop coming....

Is that quite good for Monday? (about the case rate)

It did sound better

This is possibly the most depressing post I've read for a while, when we think circa 46K is a good amount.

.

Thank you @littleowl1

It does look like a tide may have turned in the south.
Greater Manchester and North Yorkshire are a couple of areas that look worrying to me as they're still rising quite quickly.

Hopefully we're over the worst anyway.