timescale for non vulnerable under 50s being offered the vaccine?

[Earlgrey666]

I wondered if there is an estimation of timescale for the above? I have searched but can't find any information on this.

I have friends in their 30s/40s with no underlying health conditions expecting to be offered the vaccine this Spring and I think they are being very optimistic!

Maybe being optimistic is keeping them going.

No one knows this answer for sure.

There’s a vaccine queue calculator.

Plans are changing all the time right now. I doubt you can get a good estimate.

Too soon to predict - maybe we'll have a better idea in about 12-14 weeks

They want to get up to 2m a week, but the policy comes across as a bit Micawberish as we do not know if they will be able to increase capacity to something close to double the target rate of the first weeks by the 12 week point when all the 2nd jabs start to fall due.

If something hasn't turned up, then the rate of first jabs will have to slow, and that makes quite a difference to how long it will take to get through phase 1

They're still deciding whether to prioritise the young/healthy by occupation, which is a framework widely supported, so I expect they will. So place in queue for phase 2 will almost certainly depend on their employment for the higher priorities

Nobody knows.

Given all these factors, I wouldn't bank on getting it this year tbh.

According to the vaccine queue calculator, I'll be between end March-mid May 2021 for the first jab then June 2021 however there are 17 million ahead of me in the queue
I think that's the funniest thing I've seen since I went into Tier 4 before Xmas!!!

Well I'm 47 and according to the calculator can expect my first dose between july and september and the second by december. I could cry. If that's what they're saying now then I predict it'll be even later. Another year of this? I actually dont think I can. No holidays. No seeing friends and family. Just work and homeschooling?
I've spent the last year being super careful, restricting contact, not having any fun. Another fucking year?

all BellsaRinging

There are countries that do not even have the vaccine yet. Expectations were not to have it for a long time and came within 10 months. Come on!

I think by summer we’ll be offered it.

The calculator isn’t an official thing, they’re just guessing as well.

@blueangel19 I've been positive throughout this, until today. I will try and 'come on' but I am really at the end of my tether. I'm worried what happens when many people have the vaccine and I dont. The courts are already forcing us to go in, even in the current situation-will I have to return to my workplace without it? How can that be safe?

@BellsaRinging I’m concerned about this to. And if airlines only allow those who have been vaccinated to fly will young people not be allowed to go on holiday whilst others can. I’m fed up of my life being on hold and not knowing if younger people will continue to be treated badly

@BellsaRinging

Well I'm 47 and according to the calculator can expect my first dose between july and september and the second by december. I could cry. If that's what they're saying now then I predict it'll be even later. Another year of this? I actually dont think I can. No holidays. No seeing friends and family. Just work and homeschooling? I've spent the last year being super careful, restricting contact, not having any fun. Another fucking year?

I'm also a 47 YO without vulnerabilities or high risk occupation and it is what it is.

We don't have to wait until everyone is vaccinated before things can start getting back to normal, just the more vulnerable groups that are more likely to need hospital care or not survive. Once the first 3-4 groups have been vaccinated, this will cover over 90% of such people and hospital admissions should drop dramatically.

This was explained in a BBC More or Less podcast

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct0pyc

But I don't see why your life has to be no fun at all. Are you not going out for walks, seeing people one at a time in parks, having Zoom calls? Doing things you enjoy in your own home? Lots of ways to make life more than being 'just work and homeschooling'.

I feel the same @BellsaRinging 💐

I'm 46 and not getting my hopes up for anything before the summer.
It might be later than that; I suspect that when they eventually get round to drawing up a list of priorities in the under 50s, teachers, police and similar public servants will have some priority over Joe Public like me so my age won't come into account.

Apparently according to that covid vaccine calculator I will be offered from March onwards.
I'm 40, but I get carers allowance and have 3 children with autsim and learning disabilities.
I'm wondering how they will know all the people who are an unpaid carer?

I wouldn't set much store in the vaccine calculator - it's given me a different result each time I've tried it over a period of ten days, ranging from July 2021 to June 2022. Too many variables from stock availability to rate of vaccination.

I wouldn’t take any notice of the online checker. I’ve done it twice and both times they came up with different dates from May this year to March next year. What I will go on is that there are 25 million people in front of me in the queue. I am 59, but will be 60 in May, so may get it as a birthday gift.

This is the key to returning to normal life (including economic productivity). As someone under 50 I will choose not to return to normal life until I am vaccinated. You may say that is my choice, but there will be millions like me, especially if new variants are shown to affect increasingly younger people rather than just those over 80 (this is in fact currently happening, just ask any staff member in a hospital).

For the under 50s I suspect it would be for people working in certain sectors only.

It will also depend on how long vaccine induced immunity to becoming seriously ill and hospitalised lasts- if this is 6 months or so then we'll need to move onto the vulnerable groups again.

I think our only hope at this point is that the virus mutates at some point to become very mild causing no-one to become seriously ill with Covid/getting long Covid. I'm resigned to the fact it's unlikely I'll ever get a vaccine against this- when restrictions are lifted I'll have to either get on with life and risk long Covid or shield myself for the next couple of years.

I'm 48 and tbh was assuming sometime next year, maybe around the time I turn 50 in the summer.

But who knows.

2nd & 3rd waves might have burnt out by then.
Vaccination of groups 1-4 might have cut serious illness & deaths to such an extent that life returns to some form of normality anyway.

For the under 50s I suspect it would be for people working in certain sectors only But anyone who is a parent and will have children returning from school are at the same level of risk as staff in school (obviously the exposure to individuals is lower, but once your DC have been exposed that risk becomes equal).

I reckon September or October. I had hoped it would be sooner as I have asthma but not bad enough to be shielded and I understand free flu vaccine doesn’t mean you go in priority group 6. I think you have to be on a fairly high level of medication.

The government are releasing their vaccine plan on Monday so hopefully we will have a better idea then.