timescale for non vulnerable under 50s being offered the vaccine?

[Earlgrey666]

I wondered if there is an estimation of timescale for the above? I have searched but can't find any information on this.

I have friends in their 30s/40s with no underlying health conditions expecting to be offered the vaccine this Spring and I think they are being very optimistic!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55586994

This is a good article explaining the death rates and infection rates amongst different age groups.

@PinkPiranha11

I’m not expecting to have the vaccine any time soon, if it all. I have two young children and a business to run. I’m not staying in until 2022! FFS it’s really not about every single person being vaccinated! It’s about enough of the people who would take up NHS beds and potentially die being vaccinated to that society can restart. The healthy/younger ones are significantly less likely to be ill and take up beds. There is no need for the whole of society to be vaccinated before we can go out again!

This entire thing.

@NaughtipussMaximus @PinkPiranha11 thankfully we won’t be locked up all year. In summer the numbers will get lower anyway (as they did last summer). Many people will no longer stay locked in when there is no longer serious threat to the NHS. We are all doing it now to help the NHS. When that pressure falls, restrictions will ease. The vaccine, natural herd immunity and the summer will all kick in and cases will drop to a level where we can all go out. Critical is that we have population protection by next winter. That is why our friend CW said there may be some restrictions then.

[quote Blessex]**@NaughtipussMaximus* @PinkPiranha11* thankfully we won’t be locked up all year. In summer the numbers will get lower anyway (as they did last summer). Many people will no longer stay locked in when there is no longer serious threat to the NHS. We are all doing it now to help the NHS. When that pressure falls, restrictions will ease. The vaccine, natural herd immunity and the summer will all kick in and cases will drop to a level where we can all go out. Critical is that we have population protection by next winter. That is why our friend CW said there may be some restrictions then.[/quote]
From what Matt Hancock said this morning everyone over 18 will be offered it by autumn but I take that with a pinch of salt

@Spiratedaway haha yes I saw. Me too!!!

I've tried that calculator two ways - I am 41 with mild to moderate asthma.

1 as unpaid carer without underlying conditions (I am a carer to a disabled adult daughter, I get carers allowance). April to June estimation.

1 as 41 with underlying condition (asthma though it isn't severe - just have low dose clenil modulate daily and ventolin as and when). I get the same result.

When I add both in I get the same again.

If i remove both those i am looking at August earliest.

[quote Blessex]@NaughtipussMaximus* *@PinkPiranha11 thankfully we won’t be locked up all year. In summer the numbers will get lower anyway (as they did last summer). Many people will no longer stay locked in when there is no longer serious threat to the NHS. We are all doing it now to help the NHS. When that pressure falls, restrictions will ease. The vaccine, natural herd immunity and the summer will all kick in and cases will drop to a level where we can all go out. Critical is that we have population protection by next winter. That is why our friend CW said there may be some restrictions then.[/quote]
I think that’s what @PinkPiranha11 was saying - we need hospital cases and deaths to fall, not everyone to be vaccinated, to get back to near normal.

@Londt amazing how all good news gets twisted on here isn't it! The Govt have said all adults vaccinated by the autumn - so we can either base our info on that or we can,.... speculate on the basis of a random website that predicts our vaccination date!

I was also cheered by the scientist on who said 1) vaccines work against current variants 2) virus will mutate and this is expected with
covid but not as fast as the flu one does - so every few years we may need a new vaccine.

@chloworm

It's going to become another Boomer thing isn't it? I absolutely don't begrudge anyone the vaccine. However I can just imagine the resentment if older people start going on holiday, restaurants, seeing friends etc. and the under 50s just can't or won't for fear of becoming ill. Also younger people who will be saddled with the financial mess, disruption to education and shrinking jobs market will be furious (who can blame them?) I don't know about others but I've got to the point where expecting the worse case scenario is better than hope being snatched away AGAIN.

They will have expectation to mix with unvaccinated people too.... my parents and in laws live 100's of miles away. All likely to be vaccinated in Feb. They keep saying 'as soon as I'm vaccinated I'm getting in the car to see you' without any thought for the second vaccine they need, the rules or the health risks to my household who won't be vaccinated. 🤷‍♀️

[quote Blessex]@daisypond he just said it on Andrew Marr. He said everybody over the age of 18 would be offered the vaccine by the autumn.[/quote]
Thank you @Blessex, I will catch that later. It helps to know that's the plan.

i don't expect we will get it

i think by the time they vaccinate the at risk groups, cases will reduce massively and the very low risk wont be offered it - in same way we don't get offered the flu vaccine. Young healthy people do die of flu.

Deaths in under 40 esp, for healthy adults are ridiculously low - like 400 out of 80,000

@NaughtipussMaximus yep she was. Just saying I fully agree with you both

@Pastanred

i don't expect we will get it

i think by the time they vaccinate the at risk groups, cases will reduce massively and the very low risk wont be offered it - in same way we don't get offered the flu vaccine. Young healthy people do die of flu.

Deaths in under 40 esp, for healthy adults are ridiculously low - like 400 out of 80,000

But people not in the specific at risk groups can access the flu vaccine, they just have to pay for it. 18y dd has had a paid for flu jab for the past 3 years, through choice, after having a nasty flu one year when trying to revise for mocks.

The flu vaccine is also an annual vaccine so slightly different at present, this may change if the covid vaccine becomes something you then need to have annually.

If it remains a one off I do think it will be offered to all adults.
If annual/need repeats then it may eventually go the route if a flu vaccine programme.

@Blessex - many thanks for the link. I wasn't aware that the SA strain was still covered. I thought there was an EM/X-ray structure that had indicated the spike protein structure was different, hence my concern. I shall go and take a better look.

I listened to this last night www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000qy0h and was encouraged that there is some short/long dose data on the AZ vaccine which suggests it's all fine, so from an immnological (is that a word?) it's fine, but did confirm partial engagement is the way to drive mutation.

Anyway, thank you for your reply - you've turned what was going to be a gloomy Sunday into one that I feel more positive about. And for that I'm very grateful. Thank you.

I was also cheered by the scientist on who said 1) vaccines work against current variants 2) virus will mutate and this is expected with covid but not as fast as the flu one does - so every few years we may need a new vaccine.

@tootyfruitypickle that is excellent news yet very easily missed when so many are determined to focus on worst case scenarios. So much has happened in the past week alone to help us feel more positive about the future

@Londt yep I watched that too. He said that the mutation rate was in between the flu (annual vaccine tweaks needed) and measles (hardly ever need to tweak the vaccine). That suggests that many we will need a new Covid vaccine every few years - but this will also depend on how long the current vaccine protects us for of course. But yes plenty to be positive about.

@didireallysaythat there is one more mutation point on the South Africa variant they are doing a final check on but Pfizer vaccine does protect against the common mutation found in the U.K. and South Africa strains. But yes is looking good. The problem is that sometimes science can take a while to get the data we need and in the void all kinds of worst case scenarios are propagated when simply the answer is ‘we don’t know yet’. I prefer to wait for the science to come back because recently it has been good news

@Hadenough80

Apparently according to that covid vaccine calculator I will be offered from March onwards. I'm 40, but I get carers allowance and have 3 children with autsim and learning disabilities. I'm wondering how they will know all the people who are an unpaid carer?

From what I've read it will be by contacting those that get carers allowance

@Blessex ah ok! Thanks.

[quote tootyfruitypickle]@Londt amazing how all good news gets twisted on here isn't it! The Govt have said all adults vaccinated by the autumn - so we can either base our info on that or we can,.... speculate on the basis of a random website that predicts our vaccination date!

I was also cheered by the scientist on who said 1) vaccines work against current variants 2) virus will mutate and this is expected with
covid but not as fast as the flu one does - so every few years we may need a new vaccine.[/quote]
They haven't said all adults vaccinated by Autumn though sadly- just that all over 18s will be offered a vaccine by Autumn. Assume that would be the offer of a first dose, who knows when it would be administered (Spring 2022 if I'm being even more cynical).

@BuffyFairy

There’s a vaccine queue calculator.

This is out of date

The dates on the calculator are changing regularly

@Londt

I saw Hancock’s promise and thought what wonderful news to cheer up a Sunday - I wonder how the MN doomsters will twist it into something negative

I just don't understand the optimism.

What happened to track and trace, what happened with the PPE contracts? Name one thing that the government has handled successfully during this pandemic? Why would anyone believe Matt Hancock when he says great everyone over 18 will be "offered" the vaccine by autumn.

I'd love to be proven wrong, I'd love everyone who wants the vaccine to have it by the autumn but realistically I just don't think it'll happened. Apparently the person in charge has no medical background and no distribution experience, but hey they're a Tory donor so they must deserve the contract 🙄

I'm more positive about the vaccine now that the military is involved in the logistics

Do we know if we would have to be vaccinated every year like the flu?

@Hadenough80 we won't know until it's been a year from when the people who took part in the trials are retested. And if the virus mutates a lot a fresh vaccine may be required