Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Phe don't count any mask use in schools when advising on bubble closure.

And the amount of loose masks I saw on colleagues last week. It might reduce a little spittle but my foggy breath showed the difference between a tight over the nose mask and a loose on one evening.

I couldn't agree more with mrex but also, don't we need to give it a bit more time? I know it's a crisis so it is imperative to act quickly but it's five days since measures changed, is it realistic that you'd see it working yet? I think a lot of the calls for 'strictness' come from a well-intentioned place of wanting people 'to see it's serious' but I think that's the logic of people who already know and understand the severity of the crisis; I think that constantly changing and ramping up restrictions is as likely to make the unconvinced feel that it's arbitrary and meaningless as it is to convince them to take it more seriously.

I would also like to see some data about whether people breaking the rules is a significant contributor. My instinct from the anecdata around me including my DH is that their rule abiding working conditions would be more than enough to maintain spread!

@MRex yes, ish- this but it’s yet another “five year average”... I’m after one like the Nuffield I linked to with a 20 year average (actually it shows 20 year average as a line, and the individual years as lines. To give a sense of general trends). Thanknylu though

Not sure if this is old news as have only been dipping into and out of the thread but here shows excess mortality since 1900 in England and Wales. You can see the spikes in 1918, WW2 and now 2020.

mobile.twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1346863072435179520?s=20

This is useful but doesn’t break it down by time of year. What I’m trying to debunk (ie win an argument!) is that the peak was in April and now we are back into the historic cycle of high winter deaths which abate in the spring. And whether or not general mortality trends are falling, in order to justify the complete shut down of the country obviously there must be excess mortality per capita far above every year in living memory. As everyone has said from the beginning, this is unprecedented. So I’d like to see that modelled (deaths per capita on a graph, 52 weeks of the year on the x axis and dpc on the y, with a line for each of at least the last 20 years.) It would be super simple to do and would instantly shut up those who say that “the last five or so years have just been light mortality years but this isn’t all that unusual”. If anyone fancies a lockdown project, please help!!

@ReadySteadyGo80
I'd go to ons, dl all death data for past 20 years and use excel to do the graphs. Probs quicker than finding pre-compiled one?

Many people like a light mask that's flapping at the sides or below the nose, I think what we're seeing now is that's pointless. Maybe worse than pointless because it gives a false sense of security.

Professor Peter Horby, chairman of Nervtag, on the Andrew Marr show.
"A number of reasons why the new strain could be more transmissible... We think the most likely explanation is that when people are infected they are producing more virus so they are more infectious."
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55605009?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5ffac9dffc346a02e4bce92d%26%27New%20strain%20means%20every%20contact%20is%20more%20risky%27%20-%20Horby%262021-01-10T09%3A35%3A30.737Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:6d69fef7-6a14-4ffb-a5cd-5b62d9a1086c&pinned_post_asset_id=5ffac9dffc346a02e4bce92d&pinned_post_type=share.
If people are just more infectious then that explains things like higher numbers getting infected at supermarkets, but household members etc.

I like to try to see a bright side in everything. So, these increased viral loads should make lateral flow tests identify a higher proportion of positive cases?! I doubt it makes much practical difference as the issue is that these are highly infectious people roaming about, but any identified should help.

Confirmed that every adult to be vaccinated by autumn: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55605009?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5ffacf71e81bcc02ea0f72ed%26Every%20adult%20to%20be%20offered%20Covid%20vaccine%20by%20autumn%20-%20Hancock%262021-01-10T09%3A58%3A53.567Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:86173fce-4b27-4f6e-b410-4be8fc1f47b8&pinned_post_asset_id=5ffacf71e81bcc02ea0f72ed&pinned_post_type=share.

@TheSunIsStillShining I agree it would be quicker, if I could use excel. Which sadly I can’t. Huge technophobe sadly. iPhone is about the limits of my technological prowess!

@thedinosaurTrain where was the Covid R rate table published? And is it totally reliable?

R number and region table www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

@ReadySteadyGo80
oh. fair point. sorry

Stream of people being vaccinated at the bottom of my road, all very orderly, happening yesterday too. Very heartening to see. (Obviously in a building!)

@TheSunIsStillShining No, thank you for your help and input! I just wish it was something I could easily find!

What caused the high rate around 1975-80?

And is it totally reliable?

The R rate published by SAGE is based on historic data (hospitalisations, ICU admissions and reported cases) so while technically it may be reliable, it is out of date and applies to infections from the prior week.

I am hoping SAGE and the government get a preview of ONS survey results before they get published on Fridays. ONS combined with Zoe data are probably two best real-time indicators of what is happening with the spread.

There is also REACT (the Imperial study) but it was wrong twice over past 6 months. Once it predicted flattening of cases in September (which didn't happen - infections kept rising) and the second time it significantly overestimated the daily transmission rate prior to lockdown 2.0. I guess the Imperial's sample is less representative than ONS's.

ONS and - to a lesser extend - Zoe have not had such obvious glitches and appear to provide "directionally correct" view of the COVID spread.

@RigaBalsam - there may be something specific someone knows about. From the numbers though I think it is actually that we are looking at two drops in death rate, so the bit in the middle looks like a bump. WW2 had a big bump of deaths (including in years afterwards) and also led to the creation of the NHS, which led to life expectancy improvements. The impact of this on death rates had fed through by the 1970s, then from the 1980s life expectancy started increasing again leading to another reduction in deaths as the extra year+ fed through. You can see life expectancy changes here: www.statista.com/statistics/1040159/life-expectancy-united-kingdom-all-time/. It's curious that there isn't a more directly observable relationship with the state of the economy across different years.

FWIW, Zoe's estimate of daily transmission rate has fallen from 67,246 yesterday to 64,688 today. I am hoping they are right and the downward trend will continue. Currently we are still seeing impact of the tiered system combined with school closures and some Christmas mixing (no national stay at home message).

Thanks MRex. Interesting.

That's interesting data from test and trace on the new variant @RichardGere. Suggests 35-40% more transmissable across all age groups and contact types (ie direct contact and other close contact)

@Hardbackwriter - I think you're completely right about the timing of new restrictions. There's something not thought through with people shouting that the NHS is in crisis NOW and calling for tighter lockdown in response. Even if it were easy/possible to lock down further and we did that, it would have precisely zero impact on hospital numbers for at least a fortnight, so the NHS needs to find some other way to deal with the immediate crisis regardless. (I read in the news they'd diverted some police officers to driving ambulances, which seems a better use of them than patrolling people taking a walk with a friend imo)

I think the only way in which the current NHS crisis can lead to greater restrictions is that it makes it easier/less unpalatable for the government to explain why they're bringing them in.

Because people don't trust scientific modelling or virologists' knowledge of past epidemics etc.

@teta the scientist calculating the local R tweets here twitter.com/alastairgrant4/status/1347584450784325635?s=21 and puts his data on the UEA website.

It’s based on more recent data than the national and regional figures. Knowsley for example has seen quadrupled rates in a week, an R above 2 in that scenario seems more appropriate than the 1-1.4 being reported as a national figure. The northwest is not homogenous

I feel that too many people feel 'safe' indoors at 2m distance

This, and the whole of that post I blame on the govt. Wash your hands, stay 2m away and you'll be fine message makes people feel they are doing enough. The amount of people I've heard say they 'feel safe' in a restaurant because the waiter keeps wiping things down and there's anti bac on the table is astonishing.

I saw a poster the other day for a slimming world type group, huge letters “100% covid safe” - I’m not normally tempted to graffiti but I very much wanted to comment on it! Short of working in a Cat-4 lab at porton down, few places can be anything like 100% covid safe, let alone a village hall

And as for the "schools are safe" message - repeated by Matt Hancock only this morning....