Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I agree @wintertravel1980, but didn't realise the WHO were on the fence about seasonality. I thought all virologists told us this back in Feb/Mar. I've been so frustrated that Boris et al seem determined to avoid admitting to knowing this.

I'm in Telford and I was baffled when we were put in tier 2 when we were surrounded by places like Wolverhampton, Cheshire and N Wales all in tier 4, and our numbers had only just started dropping. Now they are going up so quickly it's terrifying. That R number is very worrying.

Any R numbers estimated based on daily positive cases are highly flawed given the holiday noise and up and down spikes throughout the Christmas period. Any data for the time period that would include specimen date numbers from December 29th will look very scary.

I think the best approach for estimating R is to look at hospitalisations. The numbers will be closer to what has been recently published by SAGE and while the results are still depressing, they are within a more reasonable range (1-1.4).

On a parallel note, Zoe has shown the first daily drop in transmission rates across the UK. London has been going down for a few days in a row (which appears consistent with the ONS survey).

I know some people are questioning whether Zoe numbers are based on a representative sample. What I have found that since August Zoe has been particular good at predicting national and regional trends. It was the first to indicate that daily transmissions started rising in the second half of August (any increase in cases prior to that was driven by expanded testing - test positivity rate stayed consistent throughout summer). It flagged problems in South East and London during the November lockdown. It highlighted rapid growth of cases in Wales post "circuit breaker".

I would not rely on Zoe for granular (local authority) numbers or absolute levels of infections but they appear reasonably accurate in tracking and predicting high level transmission dynamics.

Anecdotes here, sorry. I have family on the IOW, they had lots of tier tourists - people over from Portsmouth for the pubs as well as many second homers fleeing London.
www.islandecho.co.uk/ive-never-seen-the-midnight-ferry-so-busy-tiers-3-4-flood-the-isle-of-wight/

@ReadySteadyGo80 - is this what you want for excess death comparison? mobile.twitter.com/RP131/status/1346828862676676610

[quote EndoplasmicReticulum]Anecdotes here, sorry. I have family on the IOW, they had lots of tier tourists - people over from Portsmouth for the pubs as well as many second homers fleeing London.
www.islandecho.co.uk/ive-never-seen-the-midnight-ferry-so-busy-tiers-3-4-flood-the-isle-of-wight/[/quote]
Anecdotally many Londoners are sick and tired of being blamed for spreading this virus.

Agree @wintertravel1980
We should have taken advantage of seasonality and opened up earlier in May. Both in terms of schools and the economy. Then the impact of shutting over the winter would have been less.

So stupid to stay shut until July. This was always going to be seasonal. Let’s hope we don’t make the same mistake this year. A whole year on with three vaccines.

I think most people are blaming the ferry operators for not asking any questions of those booking trips.

@Bluebelltulip I think you might be talking about a post of mine.

Perhaps this is the study you were remembering looking at monoclonal antibodies for those potentially exposed? www.nihr.ac.uk/news/uk-recruits-first-global-patient-to-antibody-treatment-study-to-protect-against-covid-19/26458
Or rather 2 studies. They look promising.

I had listened to a podcast with Larry Brilliant who helped eradicate smallpox. I think what was especially interesting for me, which I didn’t know but perhaps many of you will, was that smallpox wasn’t eradicated by mass vaccination because that just wasn’t possible, but by targeting vaccination around outbreaks essentially in “ring vaccination” www.cdc.gov/smallpox/bioterrorism-response-planning/public-health/ring-vaccination.html
Even if there’s no potential of post exposure prophylaxis for covid via vaccination like there is here, it does raise the question of whether more strategic vaccination can block infections more quickly. He seemed to think that to achieve eradication of Covid we may need similar. I think. It was last Monday’s episode of How to Vaccinate the World if anyone is interested! Ring vaccination seems to have been floated for Covid in Australia amp.abc.net.au/article/13006536

It just seems frustrating - more so I am sure for anyone on the front lines of treating us - that you have all this time between a potential exposure and the serious illness that could result from it in which there is seemingly fairly little that can be done to avert the serious illness part, if you happen to prove susceptible for whatever reason. I know the scientists are working I’m sure flat out on this and there are many interesting strides like this gene study www.ed.ac.uk/news/2020/genes-could-be-key-to-new-covid-19-treatments

But that window is such a depressing missed opportunity waiting game. And I know that’s just viruses for you!

[quote Madhairday]@littleowl1 your table is stark today isn't it. My local area has suddenly gone out of control and was always one of the quiet areas for this. Hospitals now struggling. :(
Feeling very hopeless about it all today.[/quote]
I was reading out local case numbers to DH just now, as they are so much higher, especially comparing the 7 day figure to the previous 7 days.
I did occur however, that the 4th was after a long weekend so expected to be high, plus the 7 days figures would be higher than the 7 days previous as they covered Christmas week when I'd imagine fewer people got tested. Maybe. Totals for the 7 days are high, regardless.

We really need another week or two before the holiday period data stops being so messy.

DH mentioned it improving now schools have been closed, bless him he thinks they are actually closed just because our DCs aren't in!

So Zoe are reporting less cases- this is great. Do we think we have seen the worst for London/east/south east now? Hopefully the rest of the country a week or so behind? (Depending if/when tier 4 was imposed?)

I guess we need to wait and see if we get a spike this Monday (by specimen date not cases reported on Monday).

@Boys - yes you're right that the current lockdown is not as strict as in the spring. But we don't know that making it stricter would help - as a major factor behind the spread is almost certainly non-compliance. A stricter set of rules that, maybe a third of people follow, aren't going to work either. They'll just shaft the economy further and make life even harder for those who do follow the rules. There are also things we could do to reduce spread that don't involve a stricter lockdown - more testing, increasing isolation rules for families to 10 days from the time the last person catches it, vaccinating over 60s who work outside the home before retired 65-75 year olds, increasing sick pay, not allowing over 14s in to school even if their parents are keyworkers, offering hotel rooms to people who need to isolate from family members, etc, etc.

I just don't feel there's the public support behind ever tighter lockdown, and without support, it won't work.

Hopefully Zoe is an accurate reflection of any fall in cases - however by next week cases may show the impact of schools (half) reopening

Re Zoe, it's much harder to input symptoms and therefore be sent for a test when general life is chaos. I stopped.

That could be a small factor.

It is useful to be cautious in considering what increases in rules will work or won't work. We can all remember how the Spanish said children weren't to go outside, which didn't affect spread at all but led to months of difficulty; harsher isn't always more effective and spread outside is much less likely. The isolation time was reduced based on evidence that very few people catch covid after those 10 days and that more were expeced to comply if the period were reduced to appear less onerous.

What is needed most is an understanding of how the spread is increasing; if it's more at-home infections then little can be done. If it's spread in schools then they need to reduce pupil numbers further, if it's early years then those need to close too. If it's supermarkets then there has to be stricter rules (one person only, reduce total numbers in shop, max 45 min, etc). If it's communal spaces in flats then local authorities need to put up signs for mask wearing and police need to support that. Whatever the measures are, they need to be targeted at whatever's causing spread, not be "stricter" for the sake of it.

I wholeheartedly agree @MRex.

Totally agree Mrex.

Do we have data on what % of the current jam packed ITUs are the over 75s or CEV. My guess is not that many, because many over 75s wouldn’t be fit enough for ITU and a lot of the CEV are being unbelievably careful. In which case, at what stage in the vaccine rollout would we expect those numbers to fall? I know admissions follow cases, so we need to get cases down, but in terms of overall societal levels does anyone have a handle on it?

Do we have data on what % of the current jam packed ITUs are the over 75s or CEV.

We have got the age distribution data from the ICNARC report (page 24):

www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports

16-29 - 2.4%
30-39 - 5.6%
40-49 - 12.7%
50-59 - 23.6%
60-69 - 28.6%
70-79 - 22%
80+ - 5.1%

Great posts MRex and Firefliess on alternative measures to slow down spread .

What is needed most is an understanding of how the spread is increasing the silence on this is deafening .I'm sure Porton Down and others are working on this . Anyone any idea when we might hear something ? Is it a facet that takes a long time to determine ?Am I being impatient ?

Thanks winter - so 3/4 are not in the current vaccination cohort (I realise some will be CEV) but not huge numbers

As to how it spreads, I haven’t seen any definitive study on it but there seems to be a lot more discussion on Twitter about airborne spread and in the US at least I’ve seen a few prominent experts advocating better masks like N95s for all. They may be jumping the gun, but since it appears that the new virus may produce higher viral loads, it’s not a huge leap of imagination that this could suddenly make airborne spread more significant.

I fully agree we need to know where it's spreading but if ppl continue making multiple trips to busy places, others' houses and kids at school, we'll probably never be able to know for sure, will we? I have no idea what test and trace app takeup is like but i expect not significant or widespread across sections of society enough for it to be much use.

@peridito

Great posts MRex and Firefliess on alternative measures to slow down spread .

What is needed most is an understanding of how the spread is increasing the silence on this is deafening .I'm sure Porton Down and others are working on this . Anyone any idea when we might hear something ? Is it a facet that takes a long time to determine ?Am I being impatient ?

I agree.

There seems to have been very little scientific data on how spread is occurring throughout.

All we really seem know is it passes from close contact with another person, but no real understanding of the effectiveness of the 2m rule, or the 15 minute guideline.

The same few 'proven' situations keep being rolled out e.g. air con driven infection in a Chinese restaurant, and prison officer infection is Vermont as examples of how the virus can spread. But we need more information and data on this.

I accept it must be hard to gather this data but I still think more understanding should now be in place given how long the virus has been with us.

I also accept that findings may have to be revised due to the new variant but we have precious little data on the 'original' variant to start with.

I feel that too many people feel 'safe' indoors at 2m distance, or for less than 15 minutes. I was shocked to find that amateur rugby was authorised to allow 15 minutes of full contact play for example. They were following the 15 minute guideline but surely that's really risky.

Also My husbands entire team caught it despite PPE and social distancing as they are together in an poorly ventilated area all day.

Too many people think they are fully protected by face shields. In my local hairdressers (before they closed), petrol station and butcher all staff wear visors only and doors remain closed all day. I think they are assuming that they are safe.

Good data is being gathered from contact tracing by PHE such as this mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1347871050311344129 but it doesn’t answer all our questions. However I think we will get more answers.

People do seem to assume that e.g. surgical masks are going to always be effective, but over long periods indoors with a sufficiently infectious person they will not be. Let alone the face shields which I believe have been shown to be almost completely ineffective when used by themselves.