Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@JanuaryChill

And as for the "schools are safe" message - repeated by Matt Hancock only this morning....

Exactly, and they wonder why so many children have taken up key workers places.

don't know if we had this one yet

John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch

7. Jan.
NEW: a common response to reports of hospitals struggling this winter is "it’s no different to a bad flu season!"

I’ve tracked down historical data on flu ICU admissions, including winter 2017-18, a record high.

Here’s how England’s Covid winter compares to a bad flu season Videokamera

mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200855376875523

@Firefliess

That's interesting data from test and trace on the new variant *@RichardGere*. Suggests 35-40% more transmissable across all age groups and contact types (ie direct contact and other close contact)

@Hardbackwriter - I think you're completely right about the timing of new restrictions. There's something not thought through with people shouting that the NHS is in crisis NOW and calling for tighter lockdown in response. Even if it were easy/possible to lock down further and we did that, it would have precisely zero impact on hospital numbers for at least a fortnight, so the NHS needs to find some other way to deal with the immediate crisis regardless. (I read in the news they'd diverted some police officers to driving ambulances, which seems a better use of them than patrolling people taking a walk with a friend imo)

On this front - does anyone know if there are publicly available figures or measures for impact on ambulance services, please?

People feel safe, because they are statistically safe, so many people are not in danger from the virus, that they would feel "safe" snogging the people in the street. They don't want to spread it, but they know they're safe from it.

It's why the safe message is so bad, indeed it's why all the project fear messaging has been so broken. All it does is make the people at risk even more at risk if they do catch it - by reducing their fitness by more isolation - 76% increase in risk of death from not doing guideline exercise.

My view is any new restrictions, in fact even getting support for the current ones, needs to rebalance where the harms are most felt, at the moment most harms fall on those with least benefit.

The trouble is you are focusing on the immediate personal risks and missing the whole picture

Yes your risk of dying from covid may be small and your risk of needing a cancer appointment may also be low and your risk of having an accident ... all things that become untreatable once hospitals are overrun

Once that happens, you broadband goes down and you can't get it fixed because the engineer died from an untreated heart attack, you can't get your usual weekly shop s the eu have banned all transport to plague island. Your hairdresser is closed because she suffered a mental breakdown when her parents both died. Your job goes because too many people are scared and so don't go back to the pub or gym . Your bin goes uncollected because there are no longer enough bin men because 20% of the workforce are vulnerable

If the nhs buckles , society buckles and we all lose.

We can't "protect the vulnerable " without locking up everyone over 50, taking their kids away from them, refusing them any medical support and sending them all food parcels to keep them out of the shop.

@Hardbackwriter - only this one, you might get more from Fingertips but perhaps not up to date: digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/progression

Damn sorry that's not data. Thought in was on the Whitty thread

I thought it was an excellent post though @midgebabe and definitely worth repeating there.

The people who are not vulnerable to covid, also almost never access the NHS for many other reasons, accidents are rare, and people do not modify their behaviour to avoid them. Statistically, the people not vulnerable to covid, also do not use the NHS very much (other than young children with seemingly little vulnerability to covid but use NHS facilities more than others).

So their personal risk is barely elevated, but their harm is absolutely elevated, the fact you went straight to fear - no matter how true your statements shows how wrong the messaging is, and seemingly how your only thought that I was suggesting was "lock up all the over 50's", there's lots of ways to rebalance the messaging without that.

@wintertravel1980 that’s really interesting, so if the Zoe App estimates are correct, official Govt. testing is picking up The vast majority of cases - 7 day average works out at 59660 / day so over 90% of current Zoe daily infections. Even if it’s not fully accurate that would surely put us in a better position if we’re able to establish even 80% of cases? Or have I misunderstood somewhere?

Zoe may over-estimate infections in some areas, underestimate in others and come to a similar figure by blind luck, but it won't be accurate. Regarding actual tests, unless covid is eliminated with tests on entry NZ-style there is simply no way testing can pick up 90% covid infections; 17-20% asymptomatic are hard to catch for a start (ref: www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851 ). France are thought to have missed 90% of their cases! (Ref: www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-03095-6 )

That said, I've no idea what an accurate estimate is and have given up looking for one, so maybe this skeptic in the corner should be ignored.

54940 cases

563 deaths, awful still but well below 4 figs at least

Almost 620,000 tests over past seven days

Be interesting to see where those cases and deaths slot in.

Spec date wise for England

09 jan 2409

08 jan 22377, taking overall to 25943

07 jan 12526, overall 37884

06 jan 10328, overall 48876

05 Jan 2128, overall 56882

04 Jan 341, overall 68521, so 4th will be around 5% less than 29 Dec which stands at 72404

The 620,000 tests is a single day figure, it's 3,403,714 tests in the last 7 days.
I'm tentatively feeling like lockdown might be starting to work. Very tentatively!

Will Zoe not pick up a decent amount of the community transmission, but completely miss the care home and hospitals and institution transmission. Therefore would you have to add the Zoe total to the hospital/care home figures? Which may come out with a much higher (and accurate) total figure (approx 100k a day?!)

Still a very disproportionate number of cases reported today for London at 27.2%, whereas London makes up 15.9% of the overall England population.

Numbers added in south east and east of England however almost back in line, but increasing in north west

@MRex absolutely on testing, got ahead of myself on typing, indeed 3.4m for last seven days

And @MRex tentatively you might be right. The holiday period clearly distorts things, but case number wise keep fingers crossed. I think Monday 11 spec date numbers will start to give the first real sense. Although it will be end of next week before we get a real feel for that.

I think Zoe is pretty good at predicting trends but I would not fully rely on it for absolute numbers.

Also it is worth bearing in mind Zoe only models symptomatic transmissions. If we take its current modelled number and add - say - 30% of asymptomatic (mildly symptomatic?) cases, we will end up with a more realistic estimate of 90,000-100,000 new daily infections. The tests may be picking up 60-70% of that.

The 7 day average for cases in England, 54553 to 4th jan, falling to 52335 on 5th jan (which still covers the most recent 5 day lag for the vast bulk of cases to be reported). So moving in right direction, albeit with a long way to move, on Christmas Eve it stood at 33194.

I saw a poster the other day for a slimming world type group, huge letters “100% covid safe” - I’m not normally tempted to graffiti but I very much wanted to comment on it! Short of working in a Cat-4 lab at porton down, few places can be anything like 100% covid safe, let alone a village hall Unless they go online, that would be safe.

Littleowl’s table should hopefully bear this out, although almost all councils still rising in last 7 vs previous 7 days 11 now falling with 7 of those in Kent/ Essex / Herts; hopefully those numbers should start to increase over the next few days - as in more showing falling rates

@ancientgran
I saw a poster the other day for a slimming world type group, huge letters “100% covid safe” - I’m not normally tempted to graffiti but I very much wanted to comment on it! Short of working in a Cat-4 lab at porton down, few places can be anything like 100% covid safe, let alone a village hall
Unless they go online, that would be safe.
They do say the camera adds 10lbs, it might be a difficult call.

to Mrex and hopefully the classes are now online ancientgran, but the poster was advertising in person meetings in the village hall (time and location specified)