Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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Yeah, it's always been a bit high my way but it has really picked up now to over 1000 per 100k.

Starting to hear a lot more people saying they know people who are or have been really ill or have died including some quite young people.

@witchend

I had a look on the ONS site.

I think I will pass on working out the estimated total numbers from the weekly figures!

but their figures from survey are often a multiple of ours.

Blimey, some of these figures are
Scary. Corby?!!?

There is a tiny bit of positivity as RP131 on Twitter shows 31 councils where rolling weekly total is lower this week than last.

On a complete anecdota side comment ( for which apologies!) the vaccination hub in our borough opened today. I walked past it an there was a steady stream in and out, several very elderly where I live were vaccinated today and sent an email round saying how grateful they felt ( and how well run it was!)..

Anyway amongst the gloom of the moment it did make me feel just a bit more hopeful to see it tangibly up and running like that.

@littlestpogo

On a complete anecdota side comment ( for which apologies!) the vaccination hub in our borough opened today. I walked past it an there was a steady stream in and out, several very elderly where I live were vaccinated today and sent an email round saying how grateful they felt ( and how well run it was!)..

Anyway amongst the gloom of the moment it did make me feel just a bit more hopeful to see it tangibly up and running like that.

I had to go to my local hospital the other day (pregnancy-related, all fine) and there were signs everywhere in the car park directing you to where they were doing the Covid vaccinations. Like you, it gave me a bit of hope to see it.

We've got a vaccination centre up the road from us and it's been constantly busy judging by the cars outside since it opened.

My city is on boys list 😢

What a difference a couple of weeks makes with this new variant.

Yes - I am not very thankful that Greater Manchester was left in tier 3. Whilst every borough is growing, it is not at the rates that are being seen in Cheshire and Merseyside.

Dh and I keep being puzzled over Newcastle's relatively low rates. Compared to surrounding areas.

I've wondered if it's because a huge number of students haven't returned (rates of 1000/ 100k in September were mainly students.)

He thinks it's because we've been in tier 3 since November and then 4 after Xmas.

(Probably both??)

Yes Newcastle is one of those boys3

Apologies for going back in the conversation a bit but there is a trail looking at preventing/minimising symptoms post exposure. It's using monoclonal antibodies not one of the vaccines and I think it's kings college doing it but not 100% sure on that. The hypothesis is that it gives the immune system a headstart on antibody production.

Our main vaccination hub is right next door to the on demand testing hub, so difficult to tell which is the busy one in the short time running past, but vaccinations certainly appear to be continuing well judging by the few elderly neighbours.

Hmmm.... people from my town have been directed to Stevenage which is 30 miles away. Elected mayor and MP getting increasingly frustrated.

Rates in my area, although increasing, are only half what they were in November. It feels as though we are just waiting for the inevitable effects if the new variant.

Perhaps the place that best illustrates the new variant effect is Isle of Wight?

I remember being really horrified when Liverpool had rates of 500 p 100,000. Now that is quite good!

My family are in the south-west. I think generally there's been a lot of complacence there as they've always done way better than the rest of the country in terms of cases, but in loads of places they are higher now than they've ever been and rising quickly, so they won't have dealt with anything like this before. The small town where my mum lives is higher than mine nearer a big city.

Interesting table from Alastair Grant and the Uni of East Anglia. Some pretty horrific R scores here in the NW (and elsewhere)

From the list, that Dinosaur posted, Telford, Shropshire and Worcester were all Tierney in the West Midlands. Stafford & Walsall were Tier 3 i believe.

*Tier 2

Harrogate is another one that was tier 2 surrounded by tier 3

I don't see any way at all we can be let back into tiers following lockdown - it's clear that no additional contact us going to be possible without increasing transmission - as illustrated by the Isle of Wight's experience. The only question I can see is whether we try to maintain a full lockdown until enough people are vaccinated to give a good level of herd immunity (May?) Or just until the over 50s and high risk are done (End of March?) and then allow it to rip. The latter seems risky to me given that a) There will be some older people who refuse to be vaccinated, b) 5-30% of vaccinated people will catch it anyway and c) Covid can still be a pretty nasty disease, even involving hospitalisation for people in their 30s and 40s. But can we really sustain a full lockdown for half a year?

@Firefliess I don't think there are going to be enough people vaccinated for herd immunity by the end of May unless something astounding is done about the rate of vaccination or they give up on the idea of giving people a 2nd vaccine dose. The figures I've seen are that there are approx 25 million over 50s and vulnerable of which about 1.5 million have been vaccinated. At the target rate of 2 million vaccinations a week, which we are still nowhere near achieving - that's pretty much 12 weeks, so about the end of March. However, they then all need their 2nd dose as it'll then be approx 12 weeks since they've had their first...

I really don't see how we can maintain full lockdown for long enough to vaccinate everybody. While still sticking to the rules, I'm starting to struggle with the idea of having to battle home education etc for months only to expect to catch covid at the end of it anyway....

I think there is pretty strong evidence that COVID is highly seasonal so in spring-summer months it may be entirely possible to run a 90% economy with relatively few restrictions without the risk of overwhelming the healthcare.

Of course, there is a question of the new strain but so far experience of European countries that opened much earlier than the UK shows that there are strong natural headwinds to COVID transmission in summer months.

In fact, in hindsight, we should have opened earlier than we did, maximised economic output from May to mid-August and introduced gradual restrictions at the end of August as soon as test positivity started rising. Unfortunately, back then we did not have the data we have now and there was no unified consensus on COVID seasonality. Too many experts (including WHO) refused to officially acknowledge COVID is seasonal.

Please don’t take this the wrong way @Firefliess but part of the challenge is that we don’t currently have anything approaching a partial lockdown let alone a full one. In England at least, views my differ for the other home nations.

Much higher school take up (and there are of course pros as well as cons on that)

Expanded critical worker list

Places of worship open - although many do seem to be saying they will close to protect their communities

In the Times this morning Tube use in London 18% vs 5% at start of March lockdown; traffic levels at 60% as opposed to 32%

And don’t get me started on essential retail.