Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

If you only look at symptomatic cases in the Oxford trial is it's efficacy closer to the Pfizer and Moderna numbers?

Given those two didn't test asymptomatic participants

@JamesAnderson

If you only look at symptomatic cases in the Oxford trial is it's efficacy closer to the Pfizer and Moderna numbers?

Given those two didn't test asymptomatic participants

No. The headline numbers reported for Oxford (70% and 90%) excluded asymptomatic cases.

Will this stand up to statistical scrutiny? I doubt it if a subgroup. Presents lots of issues eg what is efficacy after one dose? Will people return for second dose after reading this if standard dose granted EU? What issues will that cause? Lots to think about.

www.livemint.com/science/health/efficacy-of-oxford-jabs-at-95-if-given-3-months-apart-sii/amp-11609181643451.html

As I’ve said before messy

We’d all better hope a single dose does something because a huge section of society won’t take their booster after 28 days after reading this.

You can all slate me for being negative but if the above press is correct the implications are huge. What’s the efficacy after single dose? Anyone know from data? If it’s low and we’re waiting 2-3 or 4 months for immunity to kick in. Who after reading that would go back after 28 days for booster if that’s the regime granted EU or who would say I’ll delay booster 2 months?? I’d imagine the latter in many many cases.

Looking at the DHSC dashboard, positive tests increased by 25.7% in 7 days to 28 December. However, the number of tests increased by almost as much - 25.6% - but that was in 7 days to 23 Dec, so not comparable. If you want to make direct comparisons of positive tests to total, is it possible to get the previous dates figures from the dashboard web page - or anywhere else? (ie to see if positivity rates increased in the week to 23 December)?
(sorry if this is already addressed below!)

I suppose part of the problem is that the 'better' versions of the Oxford vaccine are counter intuitive, e.g. getting less vaccine or waiting longer for the second dose. And the best examined version apparently gives less protection, but so far as I understand it is the only version with enough back up to be able to say it does do what it says. It will be interesting to see what MHRA says. So far, it has just been tit-bits here and there which don't mean much unless you embellish them with your own opinions, or string them together to make a rather peculiar picture of random dosing giving ever better results. I sincerely hope that Oxford's report to the MHRA, and their conclusions, are clearer and more coherent. If they decide 62% efficacy is worth taking, I will have it. My grandmother, and a doctor friend (in USA) are getting vaccinated this week, and others are reporting similar, so it seems the advertised sequence is being followed. I don't want to be following this thread for the rest of my life! I don't think it should be about nationalism, either - most groups of scientists are international, and no country can 'win' without the others also 'winning'.

Yes but my point is if people read in press waiting 2-3 months for booster gives a better outcome then a lot will wait even if that’s not the dosing regime given EU. If that’s the case what’s the efficacy of one dose? By the way someone corrected me previously saying the trial was diverse. It was 92% white.

Thank you for the update @FingonTheValiant, sorry I got your name so wrong 🤦🏻‍♀️

Sounds very scary, are schools meant to reopen next week?

Yes, I agree that what people think is important - a 100% effective vaccine no-one took would be useless. I will personally follow what MHRA say. I think that most people are not reading what you or I are reading, though, so we are unlikely to have much of a grasp on their thoughts. Most of what I hear is fears of 'what else' the vaccine might do to them, not details of vaccine efficacy.

Yes fair point. Issue is it’s unlikely the MHRA could grant EU when data’s from a subgroup even if it’s the better result, it’s not robust enough. I’d imagine the delayed dosing will be all over press/TV though.

Thanks @FingonTheValiant, interesting update as always, do you think younger French people will be more prepared to take the vaccine? I'd missed the news about the German dose error, can't find it in mainstream UK news, only Reuters. What idiots, even I've heard it's 3-5 doses per vial. 4 out of 8 in hospital is awful, hopefully they'll be ok.

I wonder if the Russian confession is related to vaccine uptake? If the death rate was really that much lower it might look less necessary, especially for younger people.

On the 29/40; we know PCR tests can pick up dead virus, which someone may have when vaccinated but exposed to a high viral load. Hope we hear today about sign-off.

@Oaktree55 I agree that what the press say will have a big impact, I hope that they say things in a measured way. I am all for people having correct information, I can't do more than stay indoors now, and take the vaccine when it comes, but I can't see any way out of this that does not involve mass vaccination, and the sooner the better, assuming MHRA approve Oxford for this purpose. For some people waiting for / being given Pfizer might make sense given their vulnerability, but for a lot of people it won't matter that the efficacy is less, so long as we take it, because it will buffer everyone else. (So far as I understand the point of mass vaccination)

*all real vaccines have common mild side effects, which the saline vaccine wouldn't.

It's therefore reasonable to assume if you have side effects, sore arm, headache, temperature etc then you've had the actual vaccine.
Saline produces none of these side effects*

I had the pfzeir vaccine on Xmas eve (at least I hope it was the real vaccine). I haven't had any side effects except a sore arm. Interestingly I did get some mild flu like symptoms with the flu one in October.

Yes but my point is when you look at the detail of what’s required of a vaccine is Oxford one we should be using (especially if people don’t return for boosters). Although it’s hoped they will stop transmission it’s as yet unknown and betting people would bet the mRNA are more likely to stop transmission given their increased efficacy.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7361120/

I think people need to be aware other measures will be required in addition.

Yes, I agree other measures will be needed for a while. The big picture is what is important to me, but I don't have the knowledge or information to decide whether waiting for Pfizer or speeding along with Oxford would be better for that. I think this new variant changes things, also. I am a teacher, I can't see how schools can remain open with the new variant (again just my opinion) but we will lose so much if we have to have more restrictions to compensate for the new variant, being vaccinated and having some restrictions would be better than that. This probably could be expressed as data/ analysis of my brain worked like that, because x amount more spread would need to be countered with y amount of measures, be those restrictions/ vaccine plus some restrictions/ vaccine only. Time is also a factor, for mutation/ death/ economic reasons. So the Oxford vaccine could be very useful - otherwise it is like leaving a pipe leaking on the floor while you go out to source the ideal bucket, instead of putting a pan under it in the mean time.

@schimmelreiter gosh I feel for you it’s abhorrent how teaching staff have been treated throughout this. Schools shouldn’t remain open until they can improve ventilation etc etc. From someone whose job involved H&S it’s criminally negligent forcing staff and children into unsafe buildings.

I also think we need to be realistic about how much longer people will comply with restrictions. I really think a significant proportion of people are likely to disengage with restrictions completely before much longer.

Wearing masks and banning large scale events can probably be continued for a while yet. Banning everyone from mixing with anyone outside of their own household really isn't sustainable for much more than another couple of months in my view.

@Oaktree55 thank you (secondary school teacher here).

@Sunshinegirl82 which is why getting the vaccination programme right is so important. Devils in the detail particularly with single dose likely highly efficacious vaccines like Novavax weeks away. Once we’ve distributed Oxford in panic there’s no revaccinating with Novavax for a while. Don’t want us to kick ourselves when we watch other countries emerge better off.

Yes thanks Oak. Primary Sen here. I posted this on another thread regarding urgency of vaccination for teaching staff especially as Sen schools won't close baring in mind the higher transmission rates of the new variant. We have no SD bar no assemblies and eating in class and rough bubbles which are pairs or groups of classes so that staff can help each other out in emergencies.

• higher staff to pupil ratio

• more pupils with health conditions

• on average older staff (more than all other schools according to ons data, and definitely my experience)

• much closer physical working environment with both pupils and other staff. Eg physical handling or physio, medical stuff, changing etc.

• no masks, partly as some pupils need to see faces, lip reading, some get upset (though actually, very few. My kids would be fine if staff wore masks and many wear in taxis.)

• most pupils arrive on taxis. High risk for spread (we have had proven transmission this way.)

• some pupils cannot work with supply staff they have such complex behavioural needs.

@Oaktree55 thank you, I am personally in an ok position, but with the new variant I can't see how you could justify fully open schools at the moment.

@Sunshinegirl82 I also agree with this, also we can't shut education down indefinitely, new variant or not. I really hope that the vaccines open a fairly broad path to education / leisure / going in people's houses being a virus-related low risk activity, rather than potentially being a link in a chain of drastic consequences.

Look into CO2 monitors for classrooms (available on Amazon) details on line re min levels for ventilation.

mobile.twitter.com/CathNoakes

I’m confused why the Oxford article @Oaktree55 published is negative?

Even if the first dose is 30-40 effective then that is AMAZING and giving the second dose 2-3 months later is no problem, it still means we are out of this by next winter , but we get a bit of help from Easter.

I don’t think many are expecting restrictions to all go much before late summer. I’d just like to go back to tier 2 at least! But just knowing that you’ve had one jab and in 2 months you’ll be highly protected would do me !!