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Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

999 replies

PatriciaHolm · 28/12/2020 11:02

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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27
TheSunIsStillShining · 28/12/2020 14:39

Anyone interested in research, this looks like a good starting point:

www.springernature.com/gp/researchers/campaigns/coronavirus

CoffeeandCroissant · 28/12/2020 14:51

Why a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would in general be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly. A short thread... (by a Mathematician/epidemiologist at
LSHTM).

mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1343567425107881986

Piggyinblankets · 28/12/2020 14:55

Anyone who watched the expose documentary about the government and test and trace etc a while back (maybe 5 weeks?) wouldn't be at all surprised to hear of a covid outbreak at the MK lab.

MRex · 28/12/2020 15:06

Our purple area is turning dark purple as the new strain pushes through London, Essex, Sussex and Surrey. Kent is starting to look better though; MSOAs of blue that were purple with reductions spreading from the original points of infection. I can't find anything with more up to date information on it's behaviour than commenting about the structure of this variant, has anyone else?

In absence of information I've tried looking at the patterns to make some deductions. It looks like 4-5 weeks from the start in an area to its peak, a few weeks flat and then dropping for an unknown time. It's not dissimilar in timeframe to the NW individual areas Bury, Blackburn, Bolton, Liverpool etc though they increased for more like 6 weeks then dropped instead of flattening. While the new strain seems more transmissible, that suggests the timeframe of infection remains the same and possibly modes of infection are similar, largely through a few superspreaders and close unventilated proximity. What so others of you think of the numbers?

DecemberStar · 28/12/2020 15:07

I don't know, but have also wondered why the govt are worried about transmissibility of the new SA strain, given that there were only two known cases by 23 Dec when Matt Hancock spoke.

DecemberStar · 28/12/2020 15:10

Sorry was responding to @FeelingBIue in my last post.

No one (afaik) is suggesting the outbreak links to the development of the mutation blue. The idea suggested on that twitter thread is that it could be so easily passed on that it gets through full PPE. But as others have said, maybe we should just be surprised that there hasn't been an outbreak at the MK lab before now.

MRex · 28/12/2020 15:15

@DecemberStar - maybe they're sick of the bad surprises? A few major risks spring to mind:

  1. Aspects of this variant popped up independently in SA, Kent and Wales - that means it could appear anywhere at any time even if we suppress this wave.
  2. In SA they found it more transmissible in children; awaiting more data here but likely to be similar, that's an issue for keeping schools / nurseries / general economy open.
  3. No vaccine for children yet. Vaccine efficacy for adults also could be affected.
  4. We have a fair number of flights from South Africa.
  5. It can't be suppressed fully from South Africa, what other mutations will arise as it goes through many more African countries? Younger large populations will help it travel asymptomatically.
Words · 28/12/2020 15:16

.

FATEdestiny · 28/12/2020 15:47

Question

Back in the first wave, WHO said countries should have a positive test rate of less than 3% and higher than this indicates they are not testing enough.

Does this still stand? Because much has changed since then.

I'm Nottm/Derby boarder (tier 3) and I can see that every council area has a positivity rate of between 7% and 10%, it's been these values for ages. Yet there are ample testing facilities available and even asymptomatic people can be tested. Short of mass testing for all, how can we get a positivity rate less than 3%?

Barbie222 · 28/12/2020 15:48

Over 40k positive tests today. I guess that's some of the backlog, but even so.

Dogatetheleftovers · 28/12/2020 15:52

That’s an awful amount of new cases, even with a backlog factored in.

DecemberStar · 28/12/2020 15:54

And those who didn't bother getting tested because It's Christmas!/is the test centre even open?/Let's just pop to grandma's anyway

PatriciaHolm · 28/12/2020 15:56

@Barbie222

Over 40k positive tests today. I guess that's some of the backlog, but even so.
Yes - there's a 9k increase in England positives for specimen date 23rd of Dec!

Which is worrying, as that is presumably 9k people who may have tootled about their normal business over Christmas and only got told in the last couple of days that they were positive.....One has to hope they isolated anyway, but given I suspect a lot may have been getting tested "just in case", that may not be the case.

20k already for the 26th against just 11k for the 25th.

OP posts:
Witchend · 28/12/2020 15:57

If that's the whole of the backlog, that isn't too bad. That's only just over what we were seeing 23rd/24th, and we've had 3 days of lower since then. So if we take the average from 25rd to today it's less than 35k, which is less than the 39k of 23rd/24th.

However I suspect this is just the start of the backlog, but we'll wait and see.

Barbie222 · 28/12/2020 15:58

I think the backlog applies more to deaths than cases. Is it just NI cases that weren't included over 24-27?

BigWoollyJumpers · 28/12/2020 15:59

Can anyone see which day is over 50K for cases now, the graph isn't clear....

On a positive point, deaths seem to have been pretty flat since mid Nov, if we don't see a significant rise in the next couple of weeks, we can deduce the new strain is not more deadly.

BigWoollyJumpers · 28/12/2020 16:04

We are now purple too.... oh dear. Although our rate of increase is decreasing, if that makes sense.

PatriciaHolm · 28/12/2020 16:05

@BigWoollyJumpers

Can anyone see which day is over 50K for cases now, the graph isn't clear....

On a positive point, deaths seem to have been pretty flat since mid Nov, if we don't see a significant rise in the next couple of weeks, we can deduce the new strain is not more deadly.

You can see the actual data by clicking on "data" on the graph.

No date is, yet, above 50k - today is actually the highest ever UK number of cases by day reported, at 41,385. Same for England only, at 36,511.

The 21st is the highest for both UK and England *by specimen date" at 46,808 and 42,068.

OP posts:
BigWoollyJumpers · 28/12/2020 16:08

PatriciaHolm Thanks, forgot that was there! I was looking at specimen date, so the highest is almost 47K on the 21st, and may go up in catch up reporting? Or do we think we have caught up on that by now?

wintertravel1980 · 28/12/2020 16:12

While the new strain seems more transmissible, that suggests the timeframe of infection remains the same and possibly modes of infection are similar, largely through a few superspreaders and close unventilated proximity.

Yes, I fully agree - it appears this way. The patterns seem very similar to what we have seen in the North even though the growth in the South has been more rapid.

Both Kent and London still look like a mixed bag but the areas hit first (Swale/Thanet/Havering/Barking and Dagenham, etc) seem to be finally going down. Numbers in less impacted boroughs are still climbing.

TheSunIsStillShining · 28/12/2020 16:12

And let's not forget that it's a Monday when cases are usually very low

Piggyinblankets · 28/12/2020 16:21

Blimey, cases in my area went up 500% in 7 days.

GetOffYourHighHorse · 28/12/2020 16:24

On the gov covid app it says hospital admissions 2143 and ventilated patients 1529 which it has been for the last 4 days, it can't have stayed exactly the same. Does anyone know where to get current correct healthcare data?

Jenasaurus · 28/12/2020 16:29

40k was my cut off point before the Tier 4 were introduced. I said to my DS that I wouldnt visit (3 household rule) on Christmas Day if the cases hit 40k a day, at the time they were about 22k a day, my DS agreed as were anxious too...as it stands the Tier 4 introduction thankfully took the decision to mix away from us, but I wouldnt have known we were over 40k a day on Christmas Day as the results were delayed anyway :(

PatriciaHolm · 28/12/2020 16:31

@GetOffYourHighHorse

On the gov covid app it says hospital admissions 2143 and ventilated patients 1529 which it has been for the last 4 days, it can't have stayed exactly the same. Does anyone know where to get current correct healthcare data?
The NHS Digital site has one more day - 22nd Dec, 2,203 admissions for England vs 2,115 on 21st - from the publication on 24th Dec. I expect it'll start to get updated again tomorrow - it's not normally done on weekends or bank holidays.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

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