Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I really wish they would breakdown the data little more. And hopefully it would show that many of the kids would be asymptomatic with Covid or very mild symptoms. Other viruses are still out there.
It stands to reason that the more virus out there, the more children will be admitted and also more children will have it at time of admission even if admission is not Covid related. And I thought people could get positive tests for months?

Personally I do know when they wanted to admit DC for an 'emergency' op they didn't as I mentioned she had a sore throat/ high temp.

They sent her home, let her have a few days of antibiotics & then had op.

Thanks MRex

As far as I know from a couple of friends I have that work in hospitals. patients coming for an elective procedure have to be swabbed at home before they come, and patients being admitted for an emergency procedure are swabbed on arrival and also a few days later whether symptomatic or not.

This is a from one hospital for example
www.uhb.nhs.uk/coronavirus-staff/inpatient-testing-protocol.htm

This is interesting
Apologies if already posted
www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/exclusive-new-data-reveals-the-23-trusts-with-over-a-third-of-beds-occupied-by-covid-patients/7029244.article

That's really useful.

And concerning.

Hospital admissions in England by age group per 100,000 population up to 27 December.
Source: mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1345308517369065472

(ICU admissions, that should say).

[quote ceeveebee]As far as I know from a couple of friends I have that work in hospitals. patients coming for an elective procedure have to be swabbed at home before they come, and patients being admitted for an emergency procedure are swabbed on arrival and also a few days later whether symptomatic or not.

This is a from one hospital for example
www.uhb.nhs.uk/coronavirus-staff/inpatient-testing-protocol.htm[/quote]
This is my dad's experience in Leicester hospitals for bother elective procedures and outpatients appointments.

@CoffeeandCroissant thanks for that link. But I don't understand what the sharing means in that table, eg what's the difference between a white cell which has a 0 in it and a pale blue 0 cell, any idea?

[quote TheDinosaurTrain]Not wanting to re-ignite the vaccine discussion but has anyone else seen this? Absolutely insane plan if true

www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html[/quote]
From a HCP point of view, we were told this weeks ago. That "If a second dose of the vaccine a patient originally received isn’t available, or if the manufacturer of the first shot isn’t known, another vaccine may be substituted"
Which was fine, then, because it would not have applied to many patients and would be better than them not having a second dose at all. However, now they are prioritising 1st doses and hoping more arrive by the time 2nd is due (as well as stretching the schedule out to up to 12 weeks), this is more likely to occur. It's not so much that they are 'opting' for this approach, but effectively due to these new plans, it will happen more than it would have. The MHRA/JCVI conference the other day said they aren't suggesting we mix doses as there's no evidence to support it. It was always only ever meant to happen when there was no alternative.

The authorisation is clear that it's only to be done outside the trial right now if the other vaccine isn't available and someone is considered at risk, not that it should be done routinely before the trials complete. While Pfizer is particularly difficult because of supply and distribution issues, it shouldn't affect the early cases being rescheduled. I think it would have been easier to allow those doses to complete as planned, but we are in an emergency, so boosting one nurse or elderly patient from 90% to 95% while leaving another totally unprotected doesn't sound fair either.

Most of us have had a multitude of other vaccines in the past, you probably had a different flu vaccine manufacturer every year but simply never asked who made it. There is no special reason to expect a problem from mixing these two vaccines and they are actually being trialled to see if it improves efficacy overall.

Sputnik was already two different types of vaccine, and they've been trialling the Oxford Astrazeneca vaccine in Russia as one half of the Sputnik regime recently (www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-55273907). They also announced in early December a trial mixing Oxford and Pfizer to start in January: (www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/covid-mixed-vaccine-trial-likely-to-begin-in-uk-next-month), so clearly they are expecting decent results from the Sputnik trial info so far.

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]Hospital admissions in England by age group per 100,000 population up to 27 December.
Source: mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1345308517369065472[/quote]
That relates to one specific hospital, and looking at Dr Robertson's account it says he is a fellow at Loughborough uni.
Loughborough (I've just looked it up) is in the LA borough of Charnwood, which according to LittleOwl's wonderful table is ranked 241/315 currently, so a relatively low area.

I don't know whether they are getting significant numbers of the new variant in that area either.

It's also worth noting that these are admissions per 100k (hence the different colour blue) not actual numbers, so 0 does not necessarily mean none admitted.

It would be interesting to see a similar table in a higher area and where the new variant is high.

@Witchend I live in Charnwood. We have three hospitals in our local area. All are in Leicester itself, where we have had an issue with infection levels since forever.

All three hospitals serve areas with more people from the BAME community than most areas of the country. Particularly those of Asian descent.

I have three friends who work in these hospitals, one on a Covid ward. They report that most people who are severely ill with Covid in their hospitals are between 55 and 70 and from the Asian community.

They are on their knees with exhaustion and are finding things incredibly tough as they know things will get worse before they get better.

They tell me that children's wards are not experiencing an uptick in admissions from Covid positive young people, and that in fact these wards are quieter than ever. I've heard the same from a friend who is a paediatrician in a Nottingham hospital- her ward is so quiet that nurses and junior doctors have been asked to assist on other wards.

It would be interesting to see a similar table in a higher area and where the new variant is high.

Indeed. Also icu admissions per 10k pop (or even actual admissions) rather than 100k would give a better picture.

Cases: 57,725
Deaths: 445

By specimen date
29-12-2020 74,510

and yet:

• fluffing around with lateral flow test
• no real lockdown
• schools going back apart from london
• ppl -not just on MN, but on other forums- still debating against masks, sd, schools closing
• UK is fucking up vaccination at a level that is unimaginable most potentially.
• Guidance about schools being safe created in AUGUST are being giving out by gov
• and basically everything is open

I despair.

sorry formatting eff up

By specimen date
29-12-2020 74,510

74,540 for 29th December

Starting the obvious, the mind-boggling number of cases for 29/12 includes some of the backlog from Christmas holidays (when the figures were artificially low).

The problem is the holiday schedule distorts the real view and makes it much harder to see the actual trends.

I keep looking at Kent (and Swale/Thanet) numbers which should give us a sense of direction of where the whole country is heading. The uncontrolled growth there has definitely stopped and cases might be going down but it it too early to say whether it is definitely the case.

@Witchend, why do you think that is just one hospital? The caption for the heat map implies it is for England as a whole.

@wintertravel1980

Starting the obvious, the mind-boggling number of cases for 29/12 includes some of the backlog from Christmas holidays (when the figures were artificially low).

The problem is the holiday schedule distorts the real view and makes it much harder to see the actual trends.

I keep looking at Kent (and Swale/Thanet) numbers which should give us a sense of direction of where the whole country is heading. The uncontrolled growth there has definitely stopped and cases might be going down but it it too early to say whether it is definitely the case.

I've noticed an upsweep in Yorkshire, but many areas in the north were lagging behind having had a peak earlier.

@wintertravel1980

Starting the obvious, the mind-boggling number of cases for 29/12 includes some of the backlog from Christmas holidays (when the figures were artificially low).

The problem is the holiday schedule distorts the real view and makes it much harder to see the actual trends.

I keep looking at Kent (and Swale/Thanet) numbers which should give us a sense of direction of where the whole country is heading. The uncontrolled growth there has definitely stopped and cases might be going down but it it too early to say whether it is definitely the case.

I may be wrong but I thought that awful figure for 29/12 was by specimen date? So it is for tests actually taken on 29/12 only?

The 74,510 is specimen date, not reporting date. And the number for the 30th is already almost 50,000 and that will certainly let rise more over the next few days