Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Oaktree55

I get that but if the MHRA approve Oxford (and they have all the data, not the few bits that have been made public plus the skill set to properly assess) and we have the supplies to vaccinate large numbers I'm of the view we need to just get on with it.

I don't think we have the luxury of enough time with sufficient adherence to restrictions to wait to assess what other options might become available and might possibly be better at some as yet undetermined point in the future (as and when we can get the supplies whilst in competition with everyone else in the world). Plus the damage caused by lockdown/restrictions is itself very significant and so needs to be kept to an absolute minimum.

The reasons it’s potentially problematic are if the MRHA grant approval for standard dosing and the CEO is all over news saying winning formula is 2/3 months apart many will think oh well I’ll go back for booster later. We don’t have figures as far as I’m aware for efficacy of single dose. I’ve looked but don’t think it’s in public domain. If it’s not very effective we risk the vaccine not being protective enough and issues with healthcare etc that were already in. Expert opinion I’ve read seems to be that the vulnerable need the more efficacious vaccines.

With the new variant being seemingly so transmissible there will be a lot infected between first and second dose so need to know how much protection is afforded by one dose at least. Opinion is the MRHA decision is taking time as it’s not clear cut and they have a very difficult decision to make given the crisis we’re in.

@Oaktree Would it really matter if some people delayed getting their second dose because there's some evidence that might work better in the longer term? It would mean they were less protected for a month or two, but also that a new person would be given their first vaccine sooner, which would probably confer at least as much additional immunity added into society in total.

@Firefliess yes unfortunately I think it matters a lot. Apparently one dose of Oxford isn’t enough to confer protection from what I’m reading.

But it must give some protection surely? The flu jab gives low protection but since paying for it (after having flu every year for several years) I’ve never caught the flu.

I don’t know I’m passing on response I’ve just received from expert. I know that’s meaningless on here.

The debate feels a bit circular now. I'll do whatever the MHRA sayv is best. Others can wait and look at what other countries say, or whoever else it is that they trust.

It's a shame @BigChocFrenzy isn't with us to comment on the German reactions to the dosing error plus the cold chain transport issue, seems like a lot of wasted doses potentially. Expensive if nothing else!

Unless she's come back quietly without announcing? (Hopeful!)

[quote Oaktree55]Look into CO2 monitors for classrooms (available on Amazon) details on line re min levels for ventilation.

mobile.twitter.com/CathNoakes[/quote]
I have one in my Science lab it is constantly going off.

@Oaktree55

The reasons it’s potentially problematic are if the MRHA grant approval for standard dosing and the CEO is all over news saying winning formula is 2/3 months apart many will think oh well I’ll go back for booster later. We don’t have figures as far as I’m aware for efficacy of single dose. I’ve looked but don’t think it’s in public domain. If it’s not very effective we risk the vaccine not being protective enough and issues with healthcare etc that were already in. Expert opinion I’ve read seems to be that the vulnerable need the more efficacious vaccines.

The one hospitalised case in the vaccine arm came after a single dose, so that approach doesn’t fill me with a whole bunch of confidence. (There were 10 hospitalised cases in the control arm).

I don't see how individuals would be given the choice of being able to pick and choose when they get their second jab? I know no-one can force anyone to turn up at the second appointment but surely they'd be risking not receiving a booster at all?

Worth a read.
I don’t know if anyone’s posted this yet.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948121/Technical_Briefing_VOC202012-2_Briefing_2_FINAL.pdf

Yes Feeling blue. If they start vaccinated with the Oxford vaccine and find that it's efficacy isn't good against the new strain (and I think it's fair to call it a strain since it behaves differently) then they can't just modify it and revaccinate people, they'd need to start over with a new adenovirus vector (they used a chimp virus because antibodies against the vector will stop the vaccine working). I think the best bet there is to hold the vaccine back and use it for multiple strains at once.

NoGoodPunsLeft no problem re name, I can live with being a dragon Schools are programmed to reopen on the 4th as planned. Some lycées are doing distance learning or split groups etc, so that’s years 11-13, but actually not very many went ahead with that. Our students are in full time. For most of the term we’d only had the occasional case amongst students and two teachers, and then the weekend 19th/20th we got an email saying we had 8 cases in one year 10 class. So I think Christmas came at the right moment for us.

MRex sadly resistance to the vaccine is high across all age groups. I found the stats as of 20th December :
14% will definitely have the vaccine, 26% probably.
23% definitely won’t, 23% probably won’t.
14% unsure.

The highest resistance is in the age groups 35-49 (57%) and 65+ (48%).
It’s pretty bleak.

I think the Russian confession is because they realised their excess deaths looked awful and decided it was easier ultimately to say «COVID...» than to try to think up another excuse.

From the report I just posted about the new variant.

Two things strike me:

1. figure 4. many more 0-9 year olds infected with new variant over the last few months versus the older variants (~125% more). Whereas there doesn’t seem to be such a striking difference for other age groups (~80-100% more, est. from graphs). ( note different x axis scales)

2. secondary attack rate for new variant is 15.1% for new variant versus 9.8% for older variants. They don’t provide stats on whether this is significant.

Obviously, this is still very preliminary. Interestingly, neither of these points are brought up in the summary.

@everythingthelighttouches yes apparently likely because the new variant binds much better to ACE2 (kids have less ACE2 but with increased binding likely now as easily infected as adults). What I read anyway.

oaktree yes, that’s what the structural and cell biology points to.
I kind of expect we will all be more susceptible, so not sure why the effect is so pronounced in young children. Perhaps just because it was such a small number to start with..

Thank you for highlighting those two points everythingthelighttouches

I'd read the report as best I could but I have a very poor grasp of maths/stats and no science .

"Two things strike me:

1. figure 4. many more 0-9 year olds infected with new variant over the last few months versus the older variants (~125% more). Whereas there doesn’t seem to be such a striking difference for other age groups (~80-100% more, est. from graphs). ( note different x axis scales)

2. secondary attack rate for new variant is 15.1% for new variant versus 9.8% for older variants. They don’t provide stats on whether this is significant.

Obviously, this is still very preliminary. Interestingly, neither of these points are brought up in the summary."

@QueenStromba

Yes Feeling blue. If they start vaccinated with the Oxford vaccine and find that it's efficacy isn't good against the new strain (and I think it's fair to call it a strain since it behaves differently) then they can't just modify it and revaccinate people, they'd need to start over with a new adenovirus vector (they used a chimp virus because antibodies against the vector will stop the vaccine working). I think the best bet there is to hold the vaccine back and use it for multiple strains at once.

Speaking with 'my' expert, they wouldn't need to start over, they'd need to modify the corona virus sequence within the vector.

So before spreading what is, at the moment, rumour about vaccine efficacy with the new strain, as mentioned elsewhere, lets just wait for the MHRA who will have seen all the data, not that which is publicly out there and which is also now out of date.

I kind of expect we will all be more susceptible, so not sure why the effect is so pronounced in young children.

Everything I simply assume it's because they're in contact with so many other kids for 6 + hours a day and it's been harder to keep windows open.

We (in sen primary) normally have outbreaks of various things before and after Xmas, have even come close to closing before. It's been much less this year so some of the measures are clearly helping, at the same time enough people have had colds etc to know that if something pretty contagious is able to spread, it will, quickly.

I think the effect is more pronounced in young children because they had some natural barriers to infection before that no longer exist with the new strain. The small numbers of young children previously catching covid means it looks like a big jump, but it's actually just bringing their infection rate in line with older age groups. The same is true in 10-14. As much as there has been resistance from some to accepting it, younger children were less likely to catch covid before even in riskier situations like classrooms, playing with friends and at home. The small increase in "secondary attack" at home I think is just this increased transmission to children, that would explain the stats. I cannot see that schools nor nurseries can reopen as they were, certainly not in Tier 4 areas with this strain.

That said, I don't think it's the full story, because infections have also increased across all age groups. I think it is infecting younger children more AND more infectious for older age groups. It's gone up to 80% of the London infections now, imagine having 80% fewer cases! Worth remembering that much of this increase has been at the end of lockdown and then with higher tiers, we haven't been living anywhere close to normal life to judge the new transmission R number if the restraints were taken off.

FeelingBlue if they've already vaccinated a load of people with the current version then they cannot simply reuse the vector. The Pfizer and Moderna ones are reusable but Oxford is not. You've either not explained it properly to your expert or they're not that much of an expert.

@QueenStromba exactly another reason I’m not a fan of Oxford. Israel has vaccinated 25% of its over 65’s with Pfizer. I just worry we’ll be left in a big mess the way we’re headed.