Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@MRex - generally I completely agree with you. I work in the public sector within government so have a lot of sympathy for everyone working on this - I also completely get that often decisions are far more complex than we realise and that the people working on them have very little information and most of the time are really doing their best. It’s very easy to be an armchair critic ( we suffer from this where I work).

I also think how we that at times a department/minister does need to be called out and criticised ( I also have a link to schools to have had to deal directly with the DfE approach this year). To me this is that side of the line - but guess we have to differ on that!

I am disappointed that the opposition aren’t asking more clearly for data on the schools decisions ( appreciating parliament is in recess).

Sorry one last thing - the time to listen - even in a crisis - is during the decision making process. Which didn’t need to be as last minute as this was. Government changing direction with no real explanation corrodes public confidence which is extremely damaging. This isn’t a one off with the DfE.

there are scientists all over Twitter saying that the current tier 4 is going to be insufficient to control this new strain

There are likely no measures that would be acceptable to enough of the population, including a full lockdown, as it would take too long. The pre-christmas lockdown failed to arrest the spread sufficiently, the "more lockdown" approach will not be supported by enough of the population to have the effect required.

Some alternative narratives need to be come up with to regain the support - fear is no longer sufficient.

The school cases are a snowball. Just increasing. At a point the susceptible have had it.
London just became a hotspot and xmas shopping at once. Maybe vit d levels dropping too.
London in t2 when nativity singing was allowed. it's been a very mild winter.

If nothing else children should either be avoiding supermarkets or have masks at 5+.

Daytime temps now low so virus surviving much longer.

42% of new positive tests in Scotland are the new variant now. Highest daily totals for the last 3 days, although I wait to see the numbers next week. We've got a public holiday on Monday, just to delay data release even more.
Am pleased that the Scottish Govt decided on 19th that all of mainland Scotland was to go into level 4 and schools start a week late and online till 18th at least. It's given people time to get organised.

Anyone seen this:

www.longcovidkids.org/long-covid-statistics

It's been touted on a thread about the nurse talking about how wards are getting full of children but not sure how reliable it is (or her statement which has been reported in the telegraph)

Not paying too much attention to that graph NoGoodPunsLeft

A linear plot has been overlaid on the bar graph, hinting that hospital admissions are rising and I don’t think that’s true.

Firstly, I didn’t think this data was available, so bit surprised.
Secondly, what’s the line? plotted from when? They are only showing data from mid/end November.How does it relate to figures throughout the year? What’s the r squared? Doesn’t look very convincing to me.

We have been told from official sources there is no increase in hospital admissions so far.

I’d rather see rolling 7 day average.

Ah I was just popping on to ask about the Telegraph article and nurse saying they are seeing 'wards full of children with COVID' for the first time.

@everythingthelighttouches

Meanwhile, there are scientists all over Twitter saying that the current tier 4 is going to be insufficient to control this new strain.

What additional measures can be taken on-top of those in T4- other than closing primaries (which may well creep into more and more areas).

I mean I can think of some additional measures, but none that I feel out government would subject people to?

Sorry if already discussed - is it possible to get data on numbers of children hospitalised (from primary source rather than the graph being bandied around)?

I know we have case numbers by age range so then we could simply compare to give a rough idea of whether more children are being hospitalised as a % of cases or if it's simply a result of more children catching the virus...

It's possible to see the number admitted to hospital by age on the dashboard. There are people on Twitter looking at the data daily and posting how many daily admissions there have been.

From that link:
I would want to know where the data is coming from, as I don't think that's been officially released. In which case where is it coming from?

I suspect it may be from people contacting them and saying "my child is hospitalised", which is naturally going to increase as the website takes off.

I did look at the children in hospital thread before it was deleted. What I did notice was one person saying "no increase here" and nothing else was thanked by several people, whereas more people were very keen to disbelieve the twitter feed.

Realistically, it would be naïve to think there won't be an increase in children needing admissions. if more children have it, then more children are likely to need admissions. Plus you may have people who are hearing about the new variant and before would have said "doesn't effect children so they'll be fine", now will think "may be the new variant and that's far worse for children, must get them seen."

The question really is: are the admissions in line with what you expect or is there a significant increase?
I don't think it's necessarily easy to tell yet.

The dashboard has admissions by age (if you filter the healthcare board by an England nation, region or trust) but only on a cumulative basis since the start of the pandemic, not daily.
However you can then download the daily figures in the downloads section

From the excellent rp131. Clear graphical representation by specimen date. Enormous leap in cases, and positivity, % 4 days after Christmas Day. This graph is represented across the country (not just London). If figures stay this way for tomorrow, I can’t see tier 4 primary schools opening this week.

Thanks for that @Loftyloft .

No, I think you're right.

Chaotic45

“What additional measures can be taken on-top of those in T4- other than closing primaries (which may well creep into more and more areas).”

I suppose what the various scientific bodies mean, when they say tier 4 Isn’t enough, is just that the schools need to close.

@everythingthelighttouches

Chaotic45

“What additional measures can be taken on-top of those in T4- other than closing primaries (which may well creep into more and more areas).”

I suppose what the various scientific bodies mean, when they say tier 4 Isn’t enough, is just that the schools need to close.

An I see. I thought more was being implied, and couldn't think what that might be referring to.

@Witchend

From that link: I would want to know where the data is coming from, as I don't think that's been officially released. In which case where is it coming from?

I suspect it may be from people contacting them and saying "my child is hospitalised", which is naturally going to increase as the website takes off.

I did look at the children in hospital thread before it was deleted. What I did notice was one person saying "no increase here" and nothing else was thanked by several people, whereas more people were very keen to disbelieve the twitter feed.

Realistically, it would be naïve to think there won't be an increase in children needing admissions. if more children have it, then more children are likely to need admissions. Plus you may have people who are hearing about the new variant and before would have said "doesn't effect children so they'll be fine", now will think "may be the new variant and that's far worse for children, must get them seen."

The question really is: are the admissions in line with what you expect or is there a significant increase?
I don't think it's necessarily easy to tell yet.

Yes to this if that’s how they get data - I suspect it may be from people contacting them and saying "my child is hospitalised", which is naturally going to increase as the website takes off.

They could close non essential manufacturing and retail entirely rather than allow them to carry on with online sales - there will be a lot of factory and warehouse workers who are still travelling to and from work and working in non-COVID safe conditions (and was cited as one of the drivers of the increases in Leicester and Manchester earlier in the year)

They could do those things and stop people meeting one other person outside. Maybe unlikely though.

More influential would be closing schools and upping furlough and mandating any (tightly defined) non-essential workplace to close.

From a very cursory review of the download of cumulative hospital admissions by age from the dashboard for England, it does appear that there is an increase in under 18’s. However- caveat- I am not sure if these are patients admitting because they have COVID, or patients admitted for other reasons who test positive (ie being swabbed on admission)

Admissions for under 18s by month
December 752
November 590
October 365

And cumulatively since start of pandemic 3153 (out of a total of 229431)

@Witchend

From that link: I would want to know where the data is coming from, as I don't think that's been officially released. In which case where is it coming from?

I suspect it may be from people contacting them and saying "my child is hospitalised", which is naturally going to increase as the website takes off.

I did look at the children in hospital thread before it was deleted. What I did notice was one person saying "no increase here" and nothing else was thanked by several people, whereas more people were very keen to disbelieve the twitter feed.

Realistically, it would be naïve to think there won't be an increase in children needing admissions. if more children have it, then more children are likely to need admissions. Plus you may have people who are hearing about the new variant and before would have said "doesn't effect children so they'll be fine", now will think "may be the new variant and that's far worse for children, must get them seen."

The question really is: are the admissions in line with what you expect or is there a significant increase?
I don't think it's necessarily easy to tell yet.

I also think that given the increasing rates in children (a known fact) you'd expect a larger proportion of children admitted to hospital for any reason to be Covid positive, and the way I read it that would count in the figures? It says that the admissions are calculated thus:

England data include people admitted to hospital who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission, and those who tested positive in hospital after admission. Inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 after admission are reported as being admitted on the day prior to their diagnosis. Admissions to all NHS acute hospitals and mental health and learning disability trusts, as well as independent service providers commissioned by the NHS are included.

I'm not one of those 'it's all a fudge because you don't know if people died with Covid or of it' people, I promise, but surely here they may well be cases captured in the number which are children who are in hospital for other reasons but test positive for Covid and you'd expect them to go up if there are just a lot more children with Covid?

"Non-essential" caused various issues in the first lockdown, like running out of bags for flour and tops for soap. Leicester was an issue with specific facilities not having any mitigations, I'm not sure that we ever found out specific issues for Manchester. All that said, it depends how bad it gets; we haven't had schools open with cases going through the roof - so perhaps more is needed if it doesn't slow once the impact of Tier 4 kicks in. I don't know if people would take brief closures for non-vaccine/ food / medical supplies manufacturing, but they may be necessary.

Cross post, ceevee. I can't download the data as on a phone - I can look for myself tomorrow if not, but do you happen to know/easily be able to check whether there's been any chance in the percentage of under 18s as a percentage of total admissions?

The data on severity in children was also based on the fact that children weren't so easily infected, right? So if they are infected more easily now, that data is useless, and basically, at this moment, we don't know anything? Or I guess we would know still that younger people are usually not severely affected so children won't be severely affected - but the death rate would climb closer to 14-19, 20-29? I am not a scientist so am trying to think what are the scenarios when your data becomes useless