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Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

999 replies

PatriciaHolm · 28/12/2020 11:02

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

OP posts:
Thread gallery
27
DayBath · 01/01/2021 19:35

It's an interesting thread by Deepti Gurdasani. It raises the question of whether cases are spiking in schools because this variant is easier for children to catch and spread, or is it perhaps an environmental cause as they are one of the few remaining places that people can mix without masks or socially distancing. A sort of chicken or egg question really.

MarshaBradyo · 01/01/2021 19:35

I really think it does. I know people think it’s non caring. But it will be based on strong advice from CMO / paediatricians on harm.

MarshaBradyo · 01/01/2021 19:35

That was in answer to Riga

herecomesthsun · 01/01/2021 19:37

It could be either, but either way, it would be illogical to continue the current situation in schools.

Castiel07 · 01/01/2021 19:37

Just seen on the National Educational union that there holing an emergency meeting tomorrow and will be issuing new and urgent advice regarding opening primary schools.
Do they hold much weight? Do you think they will close all primary until the 18th like secondary schools and go from there?

RigaBalsam · 01/01/2021 19:40

@MarshaBradyo

That was in answer to Riga
I am not so sure with JRM. Hopefully Hancock but honestly I am not so sure.
DayBath · 01/01/2021 19:40

@TheSunIsStillShining

What baffles me is what do they expect to happen by the 18th? I think it's irrational to think any huge change by then. Why not come clean and say all of January at least? and even that is a very optimistic scenario....
Perhaps it's related to the sage meeting minutes from 22nd December?

www.gov.uk/government/collections/sage-meetings-december-2020

"The introduction of Tier 4 measures in England combined with the school holidays will be informative of the strength of measures required to control the new variant but analysis of this will not be possible until mid-January"

boys3 · 01/01/2021 19:41

@FGSWhatNow in the download data section you can create a csv file with weekly cases or cases per 100,000 for every MSOA or a sub section thereof. The data is back to March. Once in excel you can of course manipulate it to your hearts content. I’ve found heat mapping extracts useful. There is the data suppression constraint to be aware but with current levels that probably is not a huge concern

MarshaBradyo · 01/01/2021 19:44

I am not so sure with JRM. Hopefully Hancock but honestly I am not so sure.

The thing is it’s not actually the most Cons approach to take to want state schools to remain open. Closing them widens gaps between top and bottom and bottom suffers more. It’s also why Labour say keep them open.

But I do think when faced with data on the impact of closing most of us would consider situation.

TheSunIsStillShining · 01/01/2021 19:46

@DayBath
What sage said is about hope. They hope that it will have the desired effect. They have their fingers crossed. Do you see any suggestion in the datasets that it is going in that direction? Because I sure as hell don't.

Saying that
"Schools will be online from jan 4/11/18 until further notice and data will be reviewed on a weekly basis and debated openly (eg like indisage briefings)"

is very different to:
"where primary schools would be closed to most pupils for the first two weeks of term (guardian")

The later implies that they will go back. So ppl will plan for only 2 weeks of childcare help or take leave or whatever.
It's again muddled communication and lack clear strategy and planning.

DayBath · 01/01/2021 19:53

I agree @TheSunIsStillShining , it's all very muddled. I don't understand the logic, but that part of the sage minutes is perhaps what the government is hanging their hopes on.

everythingthelighttouches · 01/01/2021 19:57

Meanwhile, there are scientists all over Twitter saying that the current tier 4 is going to be insufficient to control this new strain.

oneglassandpuzzled · 01/01/2021 20:02

@MarshaBradyo

I am not so sure with JRM. Hopefully Hancock but honestly I am not so sure.

The thing is it’s not actually the most Cons approach to take to want state schools to remain open. Closing them widens gaps between top and bottom and bottom suffers more. It’s also why Labour say keep them open.

But I do think when faced with data on the impact of closing most of us would consider situation.

I didn’t vote for them but the Tory MPs round us have been very keen to keep the state schools open. I honestly don’t think there’s bandwidth for deliberately. widening social gaps just at the moment,
MRex · 01/01/2021 20:12

@Lumene - I have no data that would give a date; I'm expecting autumn 2021 is their target to give time to do 2 trials (they started one small one), recognising the need to get it out there. I wouldn't like you to get your hopes up though, I've no involvement and haven't seen any dates.

littlestpogo · 01/01/2021 20:12

I don’t usually like the use of u-turn but I do think it applies to the decision on London schools. The councils banded together and requested the evidence for the decisions re which boroughs stay open, and there was clearly lobbying by the mayor. No one has indicated the evidence was provided to them ( it could have been I guess) but the government has changed position. There has been no indication it is based on new evidence in the last day.

I agree it’s good governments do change ( particularly when new evidence comes in) but I think it’s very charitable to give the government credit here.

Lumene · 01/01/2021 20:15

Thanks @MRex

Completely understand it is a total estimate, was just checking which Autumn you meant.

MRex · 01/01/2021 20:17

We don't need to give them credit @littlestpogo, just ideally not have papers screeching "u-turn" as though it's a bad thing, especially when actually we think the direction change is the correct thing to do. Debate is the core of our democratic system, it's only the past few decades when it's been seen as somehow weak to change opinions. Can anyone make a cogent argument for why it would be helpful to discourage ministers from being open to listening to other viewpoints and taking them into account?

DayBath · 01/01/2021 20:24

Quite worrying that the government wouldn't provide the evidence for their decision making criteria. That rather suggests they may not have been following it properly.

Piggywaspushed · 01/01/2021 20:27

OK, I apologise for the u turn phrase. That said, it might help if the govt themselves didn't use such swashbuckling , immutable language in the first place.

TheSunIsStillShining · 01/01/2021 20:29

@everythingthelighttouches

Meanwhile, there are scientists all over Twitter saying that the current tier 4 is going to be insufficient to control this new strain.
I don't think you have to be a scientist to see that... :(

and yet....

NeurotreeWenceslas · 01/01/2021 20:37

@DayBath

It's an interesting thread by Deepti Gurdasani. It raises the question of whether cases are spiking in schools because this variant is easier for children to catch and spread, or is it perhaps an environmental cause as they are one of the few remaining places that people can mix without masks or socially distancing. A sort of chicken or egg question really.
Has to be both surely?

Children aren't more susceptible than adults, but now appear to be on an equal level so to speak.

Adults haven't been allowed to sit in groups of 30 shoulder to shoulder for hours on end without masks.

Adults also have more personal control over hygiene etc. Dh has been waiting for a test all day and basically used it for an opportunity to hide in bed.(Hmm ) the kids need my cuddles and I'm still bf ds2. Who is spectacularly good at spreading germs.

NeurotreeWenceslas · 01/01/2021 20:38

It's also been sounding like more children have symptoms which potentially means more spread?

Witchend · 01/01/2021 20:42

@DayBath

It's an interesting thread by Deepti Gurdasani. It raises the question of whether cases are spiking in schools because this variant is easier for children to catch and spread, or is it perhaps an environmental cause as they are one of the few remaining places that people can mix without masks or socially distancing. A sort of chicken or egg question really.
I think that's worth following up, but I don't think it's just that it's easier to catch and spread. Looking at heat maps I'm comparing Blackpool, where they don't have as much of the new variant, with Wandsworth in London where it's pretty rife. I chose these because round their worst part they're similar numbers/100k.

Blackpool had a bad patch in October where they were pretty high, but you can see the 10-14s is lighter, getting dark blue but no worse, 5-9s is lighter still and 0-4 is patchier, but I'd say on average lighter still.

Wandsworth stays light green until mid December in 0-4 and 5-9 but then gets progressively darker into the purple colour by now, and the 10-14 are darker again, having stayed green until mid November.

If it was simply down to being in school, then we should have seen similar in Blackpool at their worst.

Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec
Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec
FGSWhatNow · 01/01/2021 20:43

[quote boys3]@FGSWhatNow in the download data section you can create a csv file with weekly cases or cases per 100,000 for every MSOA or a sub section thereof. The data is back to March. Once in excel you can of course manipulate it to your hearts content. I’ve found heat mapping extracts useful. There is the data suppression constraint to be aware but with current levels that probably is not a huge concern[/quote]
Ah brilliant, thanks so much! I'll have a play when I get onto the laptop.

Also closely watching the schools decision play out; in a T4 area with high rates in my locality but expecting the DCs to return to school next week. Personally I think the right thing to do is keep them closed, at least for a short period until we can see what the effect of the Christmas and New Year period has had on case rates. It feels like an informed decision can't be made atm due to the lag in cases from festive mingling, coupled with the gaps in data over the same period. It doesn't seem as though anyone in govt has the balls to make the call though..

DayBath · 01/01/2021 20:49

If it was simply down to being in school, then we should have seen similar in Blackpool at their worst.

Yes having looked at those heat maps I think you're correct.

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