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Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

999 replies

PatriciaHolm · 28/12/2020 11:02

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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27
MRex · 01/01/2021 23:16

@Hardbackwriter, @ceeveebee - it's of course logical that with a higher number of child cases there will be more cases in hospital. What's notable is that the proportion of child-to-adult cases has gone up on the timeframe of the new variant. That looks like child hospitalisations are up by a quarter, well cases are up by far more than that Nov to Dec. It may still be too soon to tell, but that suggests in general that children at least are still less likely to have highly severe cases than adults. That's of no comfort to anyone whose child is immune compromised or has some other significant health condition, and it doesn't help us with the transmission issues caused by a load more child cases around - but it looks slightly reassuring otherwise.

FoundSkipping · 01/01/2021 23:17

Can I just say thanks to all posting on this thread. Have been here from the start under various names and you have all been fantastic

Chaotic45 · 01/01/2021 23:20

@ceeveebee

From a very cursory review of the download of cumulative hospital admissions by age from the dashboard for England, it does appear that there is an increase in under 18’s. However- caveat- I am not sure if these are patients admitting because they have COVID, or patients admitted for other reasons who test positive (ie being swabbed on admission)

Admissions for under 18s by month
December 752
November 590
October 365

And cumulatively since start of pandemic 3153 (out of a total of 229431)

But your caveat here is the key piece of info that is required before people start to worry. However some threads are displaying a worrying level of hysteria from people who aren't looking at this objectively.

Surely clear thinking people don't believe that hospital data would be used to hide evidence that a greater proportion of young people are becoming seriously unwell after catching Covid?

I accept that we need clearer data. But I don't believe the facts are being deliberately hidden.

TheSunIsStillShining · 01/01/2021 23:29

"I accept that we need clearer data. But I don't believe the facts are being deliberately hidden."
I really envy your naivety. And I'm being perfectly non-ironic. I sometimes wish I wasn't the cynical person who I am and could believe like you do.

ceeveebee · 01/01/2021 23:30

@Hardbackwriter

Cross post, ceevee. I can't download the data as on a phone - I can look for myself tomorrow if not, but do you happen to know/easily be able to check whether there's been any chance in the percentage of under 18s as a percentage of total admissions?
Under 18s as % of total hospital admissions was around 1.55% in December, 1.44% in November and 1.49% in October. Slightly higher in the last two weeks of December at 1.60%.

So not really any marked increase, and as already mentioned a couple of times these are both those admitted with COVID and those tested with COVID after admission for another reason and so would expect to grow if the proportion of children cases vs adult cases has grown

I hope this link works - it should be a link to the download
api.coronavirus.data.gov.uk/v2/data?areaType=nation&areaCode=E92000001&metric=cumAdmissionsByAge&format=csv

Chaotic45 · 01/01/2021 23:32

@TheSunIsStillShining

"I accept that we need clearer data. But I don't believe the facts are being deliberately hidden." I really envy your naivety. And I'm being perfectly non-ironic. I sometimes wish I wasn't the cynical person who I am and could believe like you do.
I accept I may be wrong.

Do you genuinely think hospitals and normal reporting mechanisms are covering up data about young people's levels of sickness?

Firefliess · 01/01/2021 23:41

The hospital figures have never distinguished between people admitted because of Covid from those who are there already or who are admitted for other reasons who happen to have Covid. You ought to be about to estimate the rough number of children admitted for other reasons who happen to have Covid if you could find data on overall numbers of children admitted to hospital each week, and then use the ONS data on the proportion you'd expect to be positive (given they test everyone admitted) It would be harder to know how many were there anyway and caught Covid in hospital - they really ought to release that figure, for all age groups.

In the absence of this data, if the new variant was making children much iller you'd expect to see that in the death rate, which are published by age group.

UnmentionedElephantDildo · 01/01/2021 23:44

The clearer thing we need is what is the normal pattern of paediatric admissions - because I was vaguely under the impression that (as with the elderly) admissions of very young children rise with in winter because if the prevalance of respiratory conditions

Hardbackwriter · 01/01/2021 23:51

Thanks very much for answering my question, @ceeveebee, very much appreciated!

TheSunIsStillShining · 02/01/2021 00:15

@Chaotic45
Don't be sorry for being a normal human being :)

Yes, I find it totally plausible that this or any other gov/company would fudge any number they have their hands on to make it fit their narrative.

The easiest way to do this is to create enough layers that even if the person at the bottom is putting in correct numbers (hospitals) - at some point they can be aggregated and fudged without those putting in the numbers being any wiser. So hospital staff mostly will be genuine, but they can't alert anyone of anything because even they don't see clearly where the numbers go wrong.
I have seen companies operate on this basis. Unfortunately one was a health insurance company with many medical facilities. (think bupa/allianz type of thing).

And yes, my disposition is not that I assume the best in people or organizations.
And even being this ray of sunshine I can see a lot of good around me and in the world. But if there is a penny to be pocketed I will assume that anyone who has access and means will do just that.

lurker101 · 02/01/2021 00:22

@Hardbackwriter you’ve brought up something that has really been bothering me for some time - why did the Govt. decide to make children mask exempt initially? Is anyone aware of any data for this decision? I know there’s the view that they may have been less likely to transmit with the earlier variants, but was that all that was behind it? It’s really irking me that my young family members abroad are perfectly capable and comfortable wearing masks yet when I go to my local supermarkets there are hordes of children without masks. I truly hope this decision is reversed (although this far in it will be hard to change some parents minds) unless there is clear evidence to why it’s not suitable for British kids

ceeveebee · 02/01/2021 00:26

The NHS England figures released do show the split between admissions with COVID, and those diagnosed after admission
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
For November it looks like c185 children were admitted with COVID and a further c400 were diagnosed after admission

Aixenprovence · 02/01/2021 00:27

"The hospital figures have never distinguished between people admitted because of Covid from those who are there already or who are admitted for other reasons who happen to have Covid."

This does seem to be relevant information. Not least because it might give us some idea about how we are doing on infection control in hospitals. It would be useful to have that on the dashboard, i think.

Aixenprovence · 02/01/2021 00:29

Ah - cross posted with ceevee. The data is there if you look for it! And that is a really interesting figure. Of course not all the 400 will necessarily be hosp-acquired infections - they may have been incubating. But it does give a interesting perspective.

Piggywaspushed · 02/01/2021 06:38

My memory has faded a bit on the masks thing for children but, as far as I recall the decision mostly came after a lot of pressure from some lobbying groups who are more powerful in Westminster than their membership numbers suggest they should be. It was never based on any medical reason, just 'they shouldn't have to'. It was also tied up in the 'they don't catch it/transmit/have symptoms' debate.

As far as schools go, the same lobbying group vigorously opposed use. There is no research, actually, not many of the proclamations made about schooling (the two most obvious being forward facing desks and masks). Even in the guidance it says masks could hinder teaching and learning . It is obviously why there is no evidence _ there is no precedent to research from : notwithstanding these educational decisions are often announced as if they are based on weighty research which is why the DfE is always so keen to cite Chris Whitty and 'senior medics'. They have never managed to find a senior educational researcher to agree , possibly again simply because they wills ay there is no research into these things.

I do think masks might become the new sticking plaster at secondary , however, in an attempt to look to be doing something ( a lot of teachers are pro masks, i think, because they want to feel as 'protected' as other workforces, rather than abandoned). I am not convinced that masks will overcome issues of cleanliness, overcrowding and poor ventilation. But then I don't know what the single most important measure is supposed to be, or even whether they can be separated out. I would have thought it would be SD?

Piggywaspushed · 02/01/2021 06:39

A few typos there but hopefully gist is comprehensible!

NeurotreeWenceslas · 02/01/2021 06:46

Thread on admissions and someone has asked the q re children. Hoping someone will answer soon.

twitter.com/1pluseipi/status/1345178633191772168?s=21

MRex · 02/01/2021 06:49

I think ventilation might come top @Piggywaspushed; if we look back at the research on cluster infections it wasn't the nearest people infected, it was people in the airflow. It's difficult to be certain what the new variant's increased transmissibility might change though, because viral load is higher.

Piggywaspushed · 02/01/2021 06:56

Re whether children (or anyone for that matter) are submitted because of covid or it is found out while they are in , isn't that splitting hairs a bit? They may well ahve been submitted with a 'msytery illness' which has made them very poorly and tests then show up covid.Especially since children do exhibit different symptoms.

My DF has no spleen and has been admitted to hospital several times with viral type infections and is then given tests for various things.

Does anyone know it if is still the case that not all hospital stays are being covid tested? Certainly I have a friend who took her DS into hospital three times in April with a temperature and breathing difficulties and he wasn't swabbed for covid : it was the old' give him some calpol and see how he is' line. I hope things have moved on since those earlier days but I do think early attitudes to children and covid susceptibility weren't helpful for early data gathering.

I also ask because my silly DF currently has a house guest who has just been in hospital (MH issues) and I my SM doesn't seem to have heard of hospital acquired infection. I am presuming she won't have had a covid test and this alarms me quite a bit!

Piggywaspushed · 02/01/2021 06:57

I did wonder about ventilation MRex. probably in denial about that one as my classroom has no windows!

NeurotreeWenceslas · 02/01/2021 06:57

The reason given by my head via local Phe is that in our setting (Sen) pupils particularly wouldn't be using them correctly, on, off, used to chew etc.

Staff were actually told that we could carry one for if they happen to be in enclosed spaces with other staff not in our bubble (!) - but actually we've loads of big cupboards / small meeting rooms.

Many are wearing on taxis but I do query the effectiveness tbh. They do fiddle with them.

NeurotreeWenceslas · 02/01/2021 06:58

And interestingly PHE here don't take any mask wearing into account when closing bubbles. My son's closed via a positive case in their dinner staff (serving in class) and masks were worn. Didn't make any difference.

MarshaBradyo · 02/01/2021 07:00

@UnmentionedElephantDildo

The clearer thing we need is what is the normal pattern of paediatric admissions - because I was vaguely under the impression that (as with the elderly) admissions of very young children rise with in winter because if the prevalance of respiratory conditions
Yes agree it feels hard to get a picture atm

Also useful to see who gets positive test but is admitted for another reason - from pp

Piggywaspushed · 02/01/2021 07:02

Same neuro. I have read several times on MN that some people think wearing a mask means they will not ahve to SI. This is not correct. as we discovered at our school when some masked teachers had to SI after spending time near a positive child.

NoGoodPunsLeft · 02/01/2021 07:11

Re whether children (or anyone for that matter) are submitted because of covid or it is found out while they are in , isn't that splitting hairs a bit? They may well ahve been submitted with a 'msytery illness' which has made them very poorly and tests then show up covid.Especially since children do exhibit different symptoms.

I agree, I think this is only relevant if a child is admitted with a broken leg for example, which must be a tiny number.

There's another thread going about children in hospital but I can't face reading it, this is the only thread with data and reasoned posts.

Re: routine testing for children on admission, a friend's DD was in for an op (day patient) in October and she wasn't tested whereas my DM was in in july over night and was. Could it be test ing if staying versus day patient? However, not testing anyone with breathing difficulties was madness!

Swipe left for the next trending thread