London School of Hygiene & Medicine states that all schools need to be closed

[SoscaredforJan]

Pre-print of the new B.1.1.7 lineage published 23rd Dec 2020.

“Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed.

We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures.

It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.”

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

@minipie good point

Everyone who argues that this virus has little impact on children, are correct.
The crux of the matter is that it impacts adults.
Adults teach children.
They teach them crammed into too small classrooms, with inadequate safety.
If schools remain open in January as they were last term, it will be weeks, two at the most, before staff are unwell and schools will close.

One week of staggered return for secondary is not enough. I wish it was. I hate 'blended learning' I thrive as do my students in a classroom. But that is no longer viable.

It isn't a case of 'keep schools open' - you can only do that with healthy teachers.

@BelleSausage a very perceptive analysis - sadly.

We have a government ideologically committed to selfishness, insularity, and making money.

However, in order to contain this virus (or even start to control it) we need a government committed to collectivity, cooperation and thinking of the greater good, and able to communicate that effectively to UK citizens.

I thought this virus was mild for most, asymptomatic for many.

I thought shutting schools was about managing community spread to avoid it spreading to the vulnerable to save the NHS, more than anything.

If we socialise safely with the vulnerable - outside - then we keep them safe anyway?

The virus is rife in hospitals. Closing schools surely won’t help with that? It’s already there.

I don’t get it. It’s going to take months and months to achieve adequate vaccine coverage to protect the NHS through immunity for the vulnerable. We already know that virtual education doesn’t work and the lack of routine, education and social interaction is very damaging for children. There’s no alternative other than keeping schools open.

How long are this minority of people going to be happy arguing for school closures? Schools have been open for 4 months and the NHS hasn’t been overwhelmed.

Who even is it arguing for school closures anyway? All parents, teachers and children I know are so keen for schools to stay open.

Of course the vulnerable should be kept safe. But so should children, and so should children be able to access an education.

@festivetimes
You may not have heard, but there is a super-spreading variant doing the rounds? The last three months were bad. The next three will be worse. Schools can’t open when teachers are off sick. Schools can’t open when children spread the virus to the wider community and hospitals fill up. Stop being naive and start planning how to deal with it.

@minipie

You don’t think that conservatives and a libertarian prime minister wouldn’t put the economy over health if it was at all doable?

No I don’t. Because they know that they will get the blame for Covid deaths in the near term whereas they will likely be gone by the time we see the medium to long term problems (which include deaths) caused by lockdowns.

Ah, I was thinking that they are trying to prioritise the economy at the expense as much as they possibly can, knowing that another administration will be dealing with the health and disability fall out, and the court cases around unnecessary deaths because of inadequate infection control.

that should read, they are trying to prioritise the economy at the expense of health

@festivetimes

I thought this virus was mild for most, asymptomatic for many.

I thought shutting schools was about managing community spread to avoid it spreading to the vulnerable to save the NHS, more than anything.

If we socialise safely with the vulnerable - outside - then we keep them safe anyway?

The virus is rife in hospitals. Closing schools surely won’t help with that? It’s already there.

I don’t get it. It’s going to take months and months to achieve adequate vaccine coverage to protect the NHS through immunity for the vulnerable. We already know that virtual education doesn’t work and the lack of routine, education and social interaction is very damaging for children. There’s no alternative other than keeping schools open.

How long are this minority of people going to be happy arguing for school closures? Schools have been open for 4 months and the NHS hasn’t been overwhelmed.

Who even is it arguing for school closures anyway? All parents, teachers and children I know are so keen for schools to stay open.

Of course the vulnerable should be kept safe. But so should children, and so should children be able to access an education.

so

• on line education did work for many children

• there are alternatives to keeping schools open in the current manner

i.e we could go online, we could use rotas, we could use blended learning

OR

the government could organise schools so that they are in concordance with WHO guidelines and are safer

and

families could be allowed to home educate where appropriate. Especially where there is clinical vulnerability.

Who is arguing for school closures (or at the very least, doing things very differently)? let's see, it seems to be the scientists best informed about public health.

Maybe we should listen to them then.

Teachers have been arguing for schools to be made safer ever since plans were released for them to be open.

The fact that secondary school pupils are the most infected subset of the population with a very sharp rise among primary school children in recent weeks shows very clearly that the way they have been open has facilitated, not suppressed, transmission of the virus.

Schools haven't 'been open' for 4 months. Many children have had multiple periods of isolation, year groups have been sent home because of a lack of staff and schools have had to close for the same reason.

In the worst affected areas eg Medway attendance at secondary school was 55% of the pupil population in the weeks leading up to Christmas. This is not schools 'being open' by any stretch of the imagination.

At the moment, is seems there is a new strain of the virus that spreads particularly virulently amongst children. This means that school staff will have even more exposure - their working conditions are already such that they would be unlawfully unsafe in any other sector.

Of course children should be able to access an education. I haven't seen anyone saying that they shouldn't or that this isn't important. The challenge at the moment is how this can be provided while implementing public health measures to contain transmission of the virus as much as possible and to not place sectors of the working population at an unacceptable level of exposure and risk.

It’s all very well saying “protect the vulnerable” @festivetimes but you know that many people considered vulnerable are of working age, and working (and in front line jobs). The “vulnerable” are not just frail over-80 year olds. They’re fully a part of our society.

The vulnerable will be protected by vaccination when all the CEV, elderly and CV have been done.

Other so called protection doesn't work because you cannot isolate about half the adult population of the country (estimates of the total number in the priority categories down to the over 50s), seem tomsettle at about 25m of an adult population of 52m)

The whole idea is a joke. What difference does it make? There is no plan to vaccinate under 50's currently or children, So there will be no difference to now or 3 months. Most parents of young children are under 50.
My situation, I just got a promotion to a role that can't be done WFH, but is essential worker status, 2 children. DH works OOH non key worker, temps though so no furlough. If he doesn't work, we choose between paying rent or feeding our children.
So my choice is to leave 2x under 12's home along 8-5.30 or quit and be homeless .

Or the government could prioritise vaccinating in this order:

1. MEDICAL facility personnel and SCHOOL staff.
2. All other key workers.
3. working parents of primary age students
4. Working parents of secondary age students
5. All other workers.

Then start with the elderly and people in care homes.

At the same time they could do their job and

1. CLOSE THE BORDERS. NO TRAVEL IN OR OUT. compulsory quarantine for incoming travellers in government facility that is self funded, like New Zealand and Australia do.
2. Close the pubs and restaurants. How bloody insane that they reopened them and then PAID people to go attend them, mingling and mixing inside with no masks.
3. Mask wearing compulsory at all times outside the home. No exceptions at all unless issued by GP, a pass you wear with photo on it. Arrestable offence.

At least 50% of people at the shops before Tier 4 weren't wearing them.

1. Test all school staff and pupils with the quick test every Monday. Any positive to be then tested with the normal test. Don't want the test, then you don't go to school.

Why are schools closed in so many other countries or blended
Does the science differ by location.
As a parent I'm very worried about my secondary age child and primary going back in jan.
Combination festive mixing and new varient.
Germany has shut school for least 4 weeks.
Mass testing won't break the chains of transmission.
Just eldest taking public busy bus to school seems risky right now.
You can't isolate education/ kids from the community they are linked.
Kids do get covid and will transmit to teachers,parents and grandparents.
We can't get virus under control with school open.

The more transmission the more mutation .
We need to limit transmission .
Limited opening of schools /rotas /blended learning /childcare hubs for key workers .

What have other countries been doing about schools? I know in France over 6s have to wear masks - is that in the classrooms too?

Sweden closed secondaries in the first wave, and is doing so again for a month in January

Lots in Europe have closed secondaries in the last month. US it varies by state. Victoria in Australia closed schools for months except for vulnerable children to suppress/eradicate the virus and it worked (alongside other very strict measures).

Thanks Unmentioned

@PandemicPavolova are you talking about an actual school or one of these online schools that have popped up recently?

I need to make some plans for dd, she really doesn’t want to leave her school but maybe I can top it up with private tuition.

Surely A levels and GCSEs will be cancelled if schools close again?

Any more news on this? What’s the general consensus about primaries? Do we think they will return?

I think primaries will go back, I’m not convinced they won’t just have a stab at using lateral flow tests before shutting secondaries either. I don’t think it will work well though..

Yes I think primaries will return but with plenty of closures anyway due to lack of staff.

due to lack of staff
Why? Two week holiday so if they have been following the rules should be fewer cases.
I am secondary and fully expecting to be back. We had much less staff absence last yet than usual for autumn term so no reason to expect doom and gloom next week.

You can follow all rules and still catch covid, particularly this more transmissible strain. More than half the country were also allowed some mixing at Christmas. I do think things have changed because I know lots of kids who had to isolate over Christmas due to school contacts, when prior to that covid had had very little impact.