London School of Hygiene & Medicine states that all schools need to be closed

[SoscaredforJan]

Pre-print of the new B.1.1.7 lineage published 23rd Dec 2020.

“Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed.

We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures.

It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.”

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

Presumably this is what lies behind today's 'We may lose control if schools and universities reopen" article in The Times

If they are closed, them I hope someone starts planning now what to do with public exams in 2022
(2021 seems inevitably doomed, but the amount of time lost for the following year is mounting, and for once a planned and predictable set of adaptations, rolled out in good time, is possible)

How does one stop students who live off-campus returning?

It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.”

How will this be achieved? I thought getting the vaccine out as fast as possible was already out key priority.

I guess any hope of that lies with the Oxford vaccine and mass vaccination centres.

I am no scientist but I have been saying for a long time that all schools and colleges need to remain closed, otherwise the rate of infection just isn't going to go down enough.

It's terrible in terms of education but honestly, so are high infection rates, high death rates, an over-stretched NHS and total economic meltdown.

When will folk listen?

This isn't about a general exhortation for schools to close. Nor is it a prediction that the need will be there.

What it is doing is modelling what would happen if the new variants meant that children get the disease more readily, say similar (mild) form as healthy young adults,

We don't yet know if it will be like that. But many scenarios need to be mapped out, so that once we do know more about the possible effects as evidence emerges

Proper forward thinking back in the summer. Predictions were being made winter was going to be bad,cases starting escalating in October and still government resisted calls for a firebreak,even week before term ended schools who wanted to revert to online learning were being threatened with legal action. The government have a lot to answer for even with new strains.

These are experts talking so no doubt the government won’t listen.

And yes, totally angry and shocked at their cavalier and bullying (Greenwich) approach to schools so far.

DD is a post grad at LSHTM and it has literally had its doors bolted since she started there! Even the library. And do a very good job of online teaching.
They are walking the walk as well as talking the talk

I'm not sure the vaccine roll out can be easily accelerated?

I think something needs to change with regards to schools - I am not sure we will get full closures, but a more staggered start and a rota system would be something.

And the current plans for secondary schools will make them worse, not better, so that definitely needs to change.

I don’t think unis should be in the same category as schools. Staff and Students at my uni had access to regular asymptomatic testing which showed cases were low. We’re in Norfolk which was tier 2 till most of the luvvies from London came up to their second homes for Xmas-probs on the night Boris announced restrictions in London. Now we’ll be going into level 4

People have not yet got their heads around the fact that these new strains are game changers. This was not some publicity effort to get people to behave over Christmas, this radically changes the way Covid spreads and how it affects the rest of society.

We cannot afford to try what we were doing before and see what happens. We are already stretched to the limit right now. We KNOW that things are going to get worse and get worse very quickly.

Similarly, the way to see whether children are more severely affected or not is NOT to chuck them back into schools and see what happens.

I'm not surprised John Edmunds is the PI on this paper - he's been calling for school closures months.

If course closing wouid reduce numbers, dont need scientists to tell us that!! The issue is our kids need and are entitled to an education.

If kids are at home how do parents work?!

Sick and tired of people staying the bloody obvious!!

By the way only a few cases on my son's secondary and 1 in my other child's primary. Not all schools need closing.

@CKBJ

Proper forward thinking back in the summer. Predictions were being made winter was going to be bad,cases starting escalating in October and still government resisted calls for a firebreak,even week before term ended schools who wanted to revert to online learning were being threatened with legal action. The government have a lot to answer for even with new strains.

It didn’t help that you had likes of Carl ‘Comedy’ Heneghan spouting his usual BS. But yes, this is largely on the government.

Erm thanks for writing 2021 exams and students off OP. I'm guessing you don't have a child sitting GCSEs or A levels next year.

I think it was me not OP who mentioned exam years.

Yes, I have DC of the relevant age, and that is why I am concerned.

I think England is still walking into a disaster for 2021, and I'm really not sure what is the best way out of it (what's your preference?)

And I am concerned that this be averted for 2022 if at all possible and that needs consideration as early as possible, as years 10 and 12 are also being disrupted - already happened in many schools last term, could be about to happen next term too.

(My DC are among the luckier ones, we have enough suitable devices and decent broadband. Also a school that so far has done good quality online learning for their age group. But I am well aware that not all are so fortunate, which is why early attention to how much the classes of 2022 have missed and how it has fallen unequally would - to me at least - be worthwhile. Even though it doesn't solve things for 2021 as well)

@Remmy123

By the way only a few cases on my son's secondary and 1 in my other child's primary. Not all schools need closing.

I'm getting so weary of seeing this line trotted out. It is such a short-sighted and selfish view. Do you really think your school will still be in that situation in a month or two's time? And you're willing to wait until things get terrible there too? Can you not see that every area/school with sky-high infection rates was OK a couple of months ago?

@Remmy123

By the way only a few cases on my son's secondary and 1 in my other child's primary. Not all schools need closing.

Not this again. Good for you, up to now you have been lucky. Look at the bigger picture. Lots of people will need to make sacrifices for the greater good of our country. It may require a change to some peoples' working lives and children will need to learn to become a little more self motivated in order to succeed (no bad thing in my view). One thing that we all should be teaching our own children is resilience, self discipline and what it looks like to work hard. Too many people pander to their kids and allow them to behave in any way they choose and when they don't get what they want claim mental health issues.

No not selfish it's fact. Plus my school make children wear masks all day in school so less cases.

... I am in teir 4 btw

@lonelyplanet huge knock on effect to our economy if parents cannot work - assume you are a SAHM so will be ok??

@lonelyplanet
Oh well done, triple whammy. 'Greater good' , 'resilience' AND a disregard for childrens mental health!

Can I point out that if teaching moves on line, for the majority, education doesn't need to suffer? Many places went on line very easily during the first lockdown and some even got ahead of the curriculum.

My dd secondary school didn't do a tech audit. They still have not done a tech audit but blamed the lack of on line teaching due to a lack of government computers issued

Without asking I have no idea how they know if even a single dc needed one?

Are we going to believe jenny harries and her fantastical la la land utterances or these people?

@cremuel

Maybe they mean roll vaccines out in schools higher up the priority list? If you get all the kids and teachers done, it will mean that the government doesn't have to worry about them.

(I'm not saying that this is what should happen. Just an idea that was put forward on one of the news channels)