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London School of Hygiene & Medicine states that all schools need to be closed

481 replies

SoscaredforJan · 24/12/2020 07:20

Pre-print of the new B.1.1.7 lineage published 23rd Dec 2020.

“Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed.

We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures.

It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.”

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

OP posts:
christinarossetti19 · 24/12/2020 18:24

I think it's fair to say that it's been hard for most people TrustTheGeneGenie, including teachers and other school staff being in workplaces that would be unlawful as too unsafe in any other sector.

No-one is disputing that life would be better for most without the pandemic. But setting the bar for what your child, or anyone else's is entitled to or would be better for them, as though covid doesn't exist is a dead-end way of looking at the situation.

It goes 'children should be in school', 'absolutely, but schools aren't safe enough at the moment', 'but children need to be in school', 'absolutely, but schools aren't safe enough at the moment' on loop.

It isn't possible to provide a school-life environment at home, and certainly not if the adults in the home are working.

What would be helpful would be some constructive ways forward, which will always be compromises. My preference would be for urgent measures to be brought in to make schools safer, getting a sense of what's happening with the virus in a couple of weeks once schools have been closed for a fortnight, then planning to have as much on site provision as possible as soon as possible for primary, vulnerable and SEN children, and to have as good as online/alternative provision as possible for secondary until such a point that it is safe enough for children to begin to return.

Realistically, that might involve schools only being open for keyworker, SEN and vulnerable children for a few weeks, maybe longer after Xmas. I don't know, and neither does anyone else at this point in time. More modelling needs to be done.

But it isn't possible to have any type of school provision without staff who are well and able to do their jobs. Nor are repeated periods off school self-isolating for some children an acceptable way to continue.

GoldenOmbre attendance in Medway secondaries was 55% the weeks before Xmas. Many schools had to close or partially close due to staff being ill or self-isolating. I agree that that's not an acceptable way to be providing an education, nor workplace for school staff.

christinarossetti19 · 24/12/2020 18:26

Actually, scrap that re: secondary. Exam years needs to be asap if at all possible esp if the government are going to continue to fanny arse around with plans for next summer's public exams.

ilovesooty · 24/12/2020 18:30

@Kitcat122

It's not about not thinking about anyone's child it's about coming together as a society and doing what needs to be done to get Covid under control. It's absolutely shit for everyone. Everyone is affected one way or another.
I think that's well put.

Schools should never have been opened in September in their entirety with such poor mitigation and safety planning, but that was the hill Johnson chose to die on. He said all pupils would be returning but stubbornly refused to consider any form of blended learning.

Christmasfairy2020 · 24/12/2020 18:35

Well both mine will be going as I'm a key worker and so is my husband. I feel sorry for the kids that cannot attend school. Specially as even when the vaccine is rolled out the under 16s will not be vaccinated anyways

AnoDeLosMuertos · 24/12/2020 18:40

Now we’ve got a Brexit deal I predict schools will close.

BustopherPonsonbyJones · 24/12/2020 18:48

@Christmasfairy2020. You should amend that to your children will be going in until the schools close for even ‘key worker’ children.Too many children in small classrooms=virus continuing to spread= ill teachers=no school. And yes, I am aware that will affect hospitals, food, water and other essential services but it is what will happen. So what are we going to do instead? @christinarossetti19 is looking at this the right way. We need alternative plans.

Barbie222 · 24/12/2020 18:56

Unfortunately, there isn't any key worker provision if schools have to isolate due to staff or child cases, and for some people that has been a lot of the autumn term.

The scenarios described of losing jobs, desperately attempting to work while supervising children, and serious key worker shortages have all been someone's lived reality within the last couple of months, and without something changing there won't be any point in arguing over who's a key worker, as with the increase in rates seen in the last few days there won't be any in person schooling available for anyone.

Lower numbers, less in a bubble, and more space. That's the way forward

trulydelicious · 24/12/2020 19:08

@TrustTheGeneGenie

I bet any money not many pensioners would curtail their social lives for "the greater good" if it was kids at risk

It's painful to see some (frail) grandparents out and about with kids providing childcare when they should really be at home. They are being thrown under the bus by their own children (in some cases for the sake of their 'career' and the kid's 'social life')

If Covid affected in the same way children/young adults I'm sure parents would lock their at home and would never put them at risk in this way.

And don't get me started on the 'let granny guide us' or 'let granny decide' brigade regarding visiting grandparents for Christmas

GoldenOmber · 24/12/2020 19:11

I would hope that with vaccines coming now and much more in January, the disruption will at least be more limited. But it is going to be massive disruption.

It is depressing in discussions like this that there is always a theme for some posters of: well parents will have to make sacrifices, parents will have to just get on with it, parents will have to stop being so selfish, parents will have to not fuss as much over little Timothy learning phonics 8 hours a day, your great-grandmother wouldn’t have whinged about this. Like we can get past this massive looming problem by chiding parents until they get a better attitude.

In reality, if parents can’t work then there will be huge disruption to the services other people can expect. Where I work, we can probably keep essential services going by moving staff about but there will be some big gaps as a result and I suspect we’ll see that all over the country. Want a lawyer? Passport? New wheelie bin? Tesco delivery? Pothole fixed? Planning permission? Oven repaired? Tough, we’re busy, wait until spring.

I don’t see that going down brilliantly well, but it’s a more realistic outlook than thinking parents can just “get on with it” again if you give them a stern enough talking-to.

NothingIsWrong · 24/12/2020 19:16

I won't do it again either unless my kids are in school. I am a keyworker but my husband isn't and during the first one, my two primary kids went in two days a week which just about kept me going until the summer. This time - fuck that. I will not be working unless they go to school. and they can figure out how to cover me.

Musicaldilemma · 24/12/2020 19:24

There are millions of sufficiently educated people on furlough who could help with childcare/ primary homeschooling in people’s homes. If only there was a way to find people locally and easily to do this!

I think about the local waitress or recent graduate or young actress, or even nursery workers if they close nurseries again. I would be happy for any of them to help with my kids and print of resources so I can pay this government their 70k tax a year. Instead they expect me to kill myself with stress working all nighters to catch up on my urgent deadlines. Well- I am not doing it again!

ikswobel · 24/12/2020 19:34

@Musicaldilemma why would this be a poor idea? Hmm, possibly because there's a pandemic and people shouldn't be mixing with other households. If everyone did this what would be the actual point of shutting schools at all.
Do you have a partner- you shouldn't be taking the entire burden of childcare, it should be split 50- 50. I'm thinking your job must be demanding at the best of times, how did you manage pre-covid

MessAllOver · 24/12/2020 19:37

@MusicalDilemma. Completely agree. If schools and nurseries shut, we'll take the financial hit and I'll either go on unpaid leave or, if that's refused, resign.

Then we can have a relaxed, fairly stress-free lockdown going for walks, baking, doing crafts and fun activities and spending family time together. Like lots of people did in the last lockdown. It'll be some work for colleagues having to cover but I'm fairly replaceable so won't feel too guilty (although I'd be sad if it came to resignation as I quite like my job). It will also probably be less bad for my career long-term than a repeat of last year when I was doing a really shoddy job for months. Feeling very fortunate to have the option, tbh...I know many don't.

Itisasecret · 24/12/2020 19:52

The problem is, schools have been shut and they’ve just had to get on with it. I’m tier 2, I’ve had to drop everything to go and get my children from school, so people have had to cover me in class. Bubbles popped at our school and parents were told to drop everything and come and get their children. Reminder, a tier 2 area.

My sister? In and out until her child’s school closed to all after 10 positive cases in her child’s pre-school attached to the school. Her child was also quite poorly by all accounts.

Schools have been closed, to a large percentage of children on and off throughout the past two terms; at very short notice with no back up.

It is what it is is, no staff = no school. A raging pandemic overwhelming hospitals, when schools are known to be spreading it = no school.

It’s funny how, now, people only care it may impact them. No care for the children up north who may have barely seen a classroom this year. This is what happens when you allow a virulent new pandemic to run riot through schools unchecked. Turning a blind eye and screaming the mantra schools must stay open, is costing quite enough now. Many children have not even had the privilege of school this term. That isn’t fair.

wasgoingmadinthecountry · 24/12/2020 19:54

I'm a primary teacher who was told to isolate due to a school case - positive test on 19th.

I'm coping with isolating and not seeing my 92yo dad who is in our bubble - he'll cope on his own because he has to. BUT having to stop because of isolating has made me realise how absolutely fucking scared, terrified, petrified I am at work I am every day. I really LOVE my job and I'm a great enthusiastic teacher who has worked in a more senior secondary position but am now upper KS2. I've actually written letters to my kids for if I die while working. I'm 56 and asthmatic. During the first lockdown I spoke to all my class weekly, some daily. I absolutely know school (when safe ) is the best place for children. This is day 7 for me - I take my temperature tens of times a day, pulse ox and blood pressure the same. I know I'm higher risk than many but not on a shielding level. I go to work every day and the lovely children make me forget we're even in a pandemic. This period of isolating has made me realise just what a scary position we're in every minute of every day in close contact with children without PPE. I don't want to leave my children motherless.

GoldenOmber · 24/12/2020 20:06

It’s funny how, now, people only care it may impact them. No care for the children up north who may have barely seen a classroom this year.

Do you think everyone posting on this thread is in London?

I really don't think that we can call this problem by tutting at parents for being selfish. You are free to disagree I suppose.

Musicaldilemma · 24/12/2020 20:21

@imswobel - plenty of people have been allowed to have their nannies in throughout the previous lockdown. How would my suggestion be different? Easy and temporary childcare without all the long term employment obligations. It is difficult to employ a nanny for last minute school closures because nobody knows how long they will last. Employing a nanny is my alternative option - but I prefer going on leave and as I am a specialist, my employer cannot easily fill my role (20 years experience, pHd etc). Or I will quit. At this point, I don’t care.

My husband is a surgeon and was very busy last lockdown. I don’t think I should ask him to chip in on the homeschooling front. It is better for society if he keeps going in. And no, schools or nursery did not want to offer us places last time! Private nursery asked us to keep paying fees to keep a place and apparently it wasn’t viable to keep the setting open.

My point is, the government have thrown the middle class, higher tax paying working couples with young kids/primary age under the bus. We are definitely not less important to society or to the economy than many others. And we will not keep churning the hamster wheel for the rest. Pretty much all of my friends fall in this bracket. And leaving your secondary age DC alone at home is not a good option for many either.

I was born in Switzerland and interestingly the teacher unions there are in uproar about any proposed school closures.

Bollss · 24/12/2020 20:34

[quote trulydelicious]@TrustTheGeneGenie

I bet any money not many pensioners would curtail their social lives for "the greater good" if it was kids at risk

It's painful to see some (frail) grandparents out and about with kids providing childcare when they should really be at home. They are being thrown under the bus by their own children (in some cases for the sake of their 'career' and the kid's 'social life')

If Covid affected in the same way children/young adults I'm sure parents would lock their at home and would never put them at risk in this way.

And don't get me started on the 'let granny guide us' or 'let granny decide' brigade regarding visiting grandparents for Christmas[/quote]
Wow how patronising. You think old people should be locked away against their will then?

No i wouldn't put my child at risk but that would be my choice as it would be my child at risk. If my grandparents wanted to go out I can't stop them because I'm not responsible for them like I am my child. It's crazy that you think at risk people shouldn't have a choice in what they do.

BustopherPonsonbyJones · 24/12/2020 20:38

GoldenOmbre It is equally depressing when parents blame teacher and say teachers need to stop being lazy, teachers need to stop moaning, teachers aren’t special and need to get on with it. The current situation is showing the problems with that approach too.

I think we will have to accept there will be holes in key services and we will all be affected. The government should be working on how they will deal with this (and not by pretending that schools will stay open).

PandemicPavolova · 24/12/2020 20:41

Golden aside from lawyer for urgent issues I don't think those things are urgent for the next few weeks.

We are in a crisis, dc were sent to strangers houses in the country side during the war I can't imagine their families demanding they stay put to get bombed on for the sake of their times table.

Schools are not run by robots and its all mute, this new strain could adversely affect dc.

This virus won't go on forever... By March we will be looking at a very different situation.

It's every shoulder to the wheel the priority is for us all to remain safe.

christinarossetti19 · 24/12/2020 20:42

wasgoingmadinthecountry it's clear from what teachers have been saying on MN and in RL that you're not alone with your (perfectly rational) fears.

It's completely unacceptable that teachers have been expected to go daily to workplaces that would be unlawful as too unsafe in any other sector.

It's completely unacceptable that any mention of schools needing to be safer for them to be viable has been either ignored by the government, or shot down as teachers wanting schools to close, at least on MN.

And yes you're absolutely right that, when schools are safe, they are the best place for children and is is best for the rest of society and the future that they are there.

They are not safe at the moment, and there is currently no plan about how to make them more safe. That's what parents should be up in arms about.

GoldenOmber · 24/12/2020 20:47

Golden aside from lawyer for urgent issues I don't think those things are urgent for the next few weeks.

I didn't say those things were urgent for the next few weeks. I said that the general public might get rather grumpy about learning just how many services will not be able to function as they're used to, because many working parents will not be able to work or willing to try reliving spring, and so in many sectors only very very urgent services may be able to run.

Not ideal. Quite possibly necessary. And not something that's going to be avoided by telling parents to Just Get On With It or huffing at them for being 'selfish' or minimising what they're being asked to do as an 'inconvenience', as very many previous posters have done.

christinarossetti19 · 24/12/2020 20:47

TrustTheGeneGenie what are your thoughts on the safety of school staff?

Do you think they should have the right to the same level of risk of exposure to the virus as the rest of the working population, or is acceptable that they should be faced with persistently higher risk due to a lack of mitigation measures in their workplace?

Because that's what's happened this term, and I cannot understand anyone who thinks it would be okay for school staff to continue like this, even if all you're concerned about is that there are actually some staff well enough to be able to go to work so that children can go to school.

PandemicPavolova · 24/12/2020 20:47

Leaving secondary child at home is not a good option Confused

Well, if they were actually engaged in proper lessons, that would certainly help! They would be totally busy and occupied.

But isn't it a little spoilt to be talking about good options in a pandemic?

Goal posts have changed and we need to adapt.

PandemicPavolova · 24/12/2020 20:50

Golden

People get grumpy about all sorts of things but being a little grumpy over a pot hole is nothing compared to the utter fear they will have when they call that ambulance for a seriously ill relative and that ambulance doesn't come....or when they get to a and e and can't even get in to be triaged then mistakes are made because staff are run ragged... Short staffed and have had no sleep...

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