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London School of Hygiene & Medicine states that all schools need to be closed

481 replies

SoscaredforJan · 24/12/2020 07:20

Pre-print of the new B.1.1.7 lineage published 23rd Dec 2020.

“Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed.

We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures.

It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.”

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

OP posts:
lonelyplanet · 24/12/2020 08:59

[quote Jrobhatch29]@lonelyplanet
Oh well done, triple whammy. 'Greater good' , 'resilience' AND a disregard for childrens mental health![/quote]
I have huge regard for mental health and feel very strongly that it is catered for well. That's why I don't like it being used in so many threads so lightly when what is really meant is my child is missing their friends.

PandemicPavolova · 24/12/2020 08:59

*, this is new information we are dealing with, the strain is bad enough, but this one will make more people ill due to the higher transmission rates.

Trotting out the same rubbish... Kids won't be affected, doesn't wash anymore.

Mousehole10 · 24/12/2020 08:59

[quote Fieldofyellowflowers]@cremuel

Maybe they mean roll vaccines out in schools higher up the priority list? If you get all the kids and teachers done, it will mean that the government doesn't have to worry about them.

(I'm not saying that this is what should happen. Just an idea that was put forward on one of the news channels)[/quote]
Good idea but the vaccine isn’t licensed for under 18s and won’t be for a long time, so this wouldn’t be possible.

Mousehole10 · 24/12/2020 09:02

It’s come to the point where schools need to close. We’re tier 4, our cases are rising sharply, there’s nothing else to close. Kids will bounce back once this is over, many businesses and livelihood won’t and then the economic fallout for kids will be much, much worse with no prospects so even if they do well in exams no jobs anyway.

Kitcat122 · 24/12/2020 09:03

My school and children's schools had no cases September, October. Suddenly in mid November got one of two, the bang it exploded 4-6 cases daily year groups closed. Schools completely closed due to no staff. If your children's school is low you are just lucky at the moment.

Jrobhatch29 · 24/12/2020 09:03

I have huge regard for mental health and feel very strongly that it is catered for well. That's why I don't like it being used in so many threads so lightly when what is really meant is my child is missing their friends.

You have huge regard for childrens mental health but cannot see that it is more than "missing friends". They are cut off from friends and family and this causes huge stress and anxiety. I am sick of people saying kids need to be more resilient and it is because parents cannot control their kids!!

Remmy123 · 24/12/2020 09:04

Kids are more affected if they have to stay home away from schol / friends etc then occasional 10 days of isolation.

Let's face it, kids do not learn as much as they would in a classroom being online!!

lonelyplanet · 24/12/2020 09:04

[quote Remmy123]@lonelyplanet huge knock on effect to our economy if parents cannot work - assume you are a SAHM so will be ok??[/quote]
In Greenwich last week it was local business leaders who wanted the schools to close a few days early because the knock on effect of covid in schools was spreading to the local community and meaning businesses were in chaos. If schools continue as they are currently this is what will happen. Difficult choices have to be made. Oh and no I work and have two children both in exam years and I a very worried about their education.

starrynight19 · 24/12/2020 09:06

Were any university students still getting face to face teaching after October ?
Ds had a few up to that half term and then all face to face teaching stopped at his university.
Cases in uni students went down dramatically.

Kitcat122 · 24/12/2020 09:06

Having children out of school for a few months will not harm them. They will bounce back. Vulnerable children are known to school and will be encouraged in or will be home visited daily which we did last time at my school.

RigaBalsam · 24/12/2020 09:06

[quote Jrobhatch29]@lonelyplanet
Oh well done, triple whammy. 'Greater good' , 'resilience' AND a disregard for childrens mental health![/quote]
Mental health works both ways just not only in the one way that suits your narrative.

Lots of children are struggling with mental health by being in a school and constantly isolating, the worry for their parents and carers, the GCSE unknown worry, Sick teachers in hospital. Some struggle with school pre pandemic. Then there's the mental health of the staff which is important as they have to run the school.

Teachers worry about mental health but can see a bigger picture not just the one way.

Jrobhatch29 · 24/12/2020 09:11

*Mental health works both ways just not only in the one way that suits your narrative.

Lots of children are struggling with mental health by being in a school and constantly isolating, the worry for their parents and carers, the GCSE unknown worry, Sick teachers in hospital. Some struggle with school pre pandemic. Then there's the mental health of the staff which is important as they have to run the school.

Teachers worry about mental health but can see a bigger picture not just the one way.*

I do not deny those issues but they irrelevant here because the poster i was quoting wasn't talking about mental health in terms of isolations or staff. They were disregarding the effect of school closures on children as just being because parents cannot control their kids, because they are not resilient enough or just because they miss their friends.

ASchuylerSister · 24/12/2020 09:14

To those who are saying they’ve had little to no cases on their DC school. This was us until the new strain arrived.

A secondary school near us went from having the odd case to having to close early for Xmas as nearly 100 staff/students tested positive.

Why wait until you’re in the same situation?

I don’t want schools to close but if we’ve tried everything else then they will have to.

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 24/12/2020 09:14

@chocolatesaltyxmaspudballs

Erm thanks for writing 2021 exams and students off OP. I'm guessing you don't have a child sitting GCSEs or A levels next year.
I’d be surprised if the 2021 exams weren’t already written off. It’s just they haven’t announced that yet. The situation as it is at the moment is hugely inequitable.

They’ll probably get round to announcing it in a rush at the last minute.

notevenat20 · 24/12/2020 09:17

They could buy every secondary school child in the country an iPad for a fraction of the amount of money being lost due to covid currently.

Piggyinblankets · 24/12/2020 09:17

remmy , also tier 4 here. 3 confirmed cases at DS's sixth form from September to the last day of term. 14 confirmed on Friday.

starrynight19 · 24/12/2020 09:18

Lots of children are struggling with mental health by being in a school and constantly isolating, the worry for their parents and carers, the GCSE unknown worry, Sick teachers in hospital. Some struggle with school pre pandemic. Then there's the mental health of the staff which is important as they have to run the school.

Yes this , after my dd (gcse year) had done her fourth isolation this term , including one because of me catching covid in my school, she hit rock bottom. Missed some of her mocks due to isolating and hasn’t done great in her others. She absolutely broke down and we decided that she will just need to do resits next year. Repeat isolations have a very negative impact on children’s mental health.

BaileyBoos · 24/12/2020 09:19

Zero cases at my kids school, or the school I work at, west mids, high deprivation areas. I don’t for one moment think they should still remain open.

TheHoneyBadger · 24/12/2020 09:20

I think some people are still talking as if we are in an 'ideal world' scenario.

Yes in an ideal world pupils need to be in school and being in the classroom full time may be the best for some kids education. BUT we're not in an ideal world - we're in a pandemic and back to levels of exponential growth in transmissions and crazy high numbers of deaths and hospital admissions.

I personally would rather rotas than full closure both for my students and for my son and I really hope parents will start to be a bit more reasonable so that we don't end up with total closures because they refuse to countenance rotas. We needn't have been in this mess if we'd been allowed to use sensible blended learning plans in secondary.

I would far rather as a parent that my 13yo was in school every other week and I only had to facilitate a bit of consolidation work that had already been introduced to him and had the foundations put in place for whilst he was in school than doing full remote learning.

As a teacher I would prefer the same for my students and I would prefer to be still teaching all of them at least once a fortnight and setting bridging work that consolidates our learning and/or provides extension for those able for the lesson that they don't see me.

That would mean classes of 15 being able to spread out and at least have a chair empty between each student in a row and it would mean half the traffic in the corridors, lunch queue, half as many queuing for and using the same toilets and half as many crammed on buses together.

Vulnerable students could still be in school on their non teaching weeks in a computer room doing their remote learning supervised by a ta or teacher. Same for genuine key worker kids as we did in the summer.

Why are people so resistant to this?

ABitOdd · 24/12/2020 09:24

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn at OP's request.

whatshalliget · 24/12/2020 09:25

Why are people so resistant to this?

My understanding is that it was the government who didn’t allow rotas / or countenance the funding of extra space rental.

SoEverybodyDance · 24/12/2020 09:27

Remmy123

My son's school was like yours until they had six cases in the last two weeks of term.

We need a national lockdown that achieves zero covid. Anything else in the context of the three new strains is pointless.

ASchuylerSister · 24/12/2020 09:27

The scientists recommended a rota system and blended learning way back when and it was the government that decided everyone should be back in school full time.

TheHoneyBadger · 24/12/2020 09:28

I think the government have been rather susceptible to the UsForThem campaigning. There was very much a we won't accept anything less than schools fully open as normal message and for some reason the government took up that message.

If the louder voices of parents had been about wanting safe schools then that message would have been taken up.

Not too late for more rational voices to speak up hopefully.

Mousehole10 · 24/12/2020 09:30

@ABitOdd what about those losing their jobs as their businesses were closed to keep schools open? Who should take priority? If there is nothing left to close they need to close schools. There are people losing jobs all over for many reasons, keeping schools open so some people can work is not what should be happening.