Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

999 replies

NoGoodPunsLeft · 17/12/2020 20:09

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

OP posts:
Thread gallery
22
NoGoodPunsLeft · 17/12/2020 20:10

Thank you to @DamnYouAutocucumber for the links in the last thread.

Added the last few thank you to @Mrex for these:

Visualising cases by age: victimofmaths.shinyapps.io/COVID_Cases_By_Age/
@RP131 data of cases by age: coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Age/20201022/20201022.html
World Poo Analysis: ucmerced.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c778145ea5bb4daeb58d31afee389082

On the poo topic, Scotland has a nice dashboard in that I don't think we've seen before: informatics.sepa.org.uk/RNAmonitoring/. (England and Wales haven't yet.)

OP posts:
Firefliess · 17/12/2020 20:12

Thanks for the new thread Smile

YuleAreBeingUnREASTIEable · 17/12/2020 20:13

Table courtesy of Rp131 for England. What’s up with the big increase? This doesn’t even take into account the Welsh lost cases.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
Firefliess · 17/12/2020 20:15

@Yule - the two days before the big jump were weekend days which are usually lower. It's just that cases are increasing quite fast currently so you can hardly see that they're lower than trend yet.

YuleAreBeingUnREASTIEable · 17/12/2020 20:20

@Firefliess I get the week end dip but it looks like we’re up to lockdown 2 type levels already.

Firefliess · 17/12/2020 20:22

@yule. It does, sadly Sad. A small amount may be down to increased testing but everything suggests that most of the rise is genuine.

Witchend · 17/12/2020 20:29

Monday 14th England alone is up to 26k. That's large even for a Monday and there may well be more to add to it.
I don't think increased testing can be blamed either. On Monday 14th it was approximately 278k, which is low in comparison to other days in December.

MRex · 17/12/2020 20:29

Thank you for the new thread.

@MarshaBradyo - from the previous thread discussion. Yes, your observations about other professions would have been true at that time (bear in mind it includes lab assistants, physio, IT etc, so a huge range of in/out of home working). That said, this new strain looks to be creating additional infections somehow, because the outbreaks appear to be spreading very much faster across areas than previous outbreak patterns. However it's spreading looks to have changed from previous variants, so depending on what that difference is, it may start changing the risk factors for various occupations. If that's the case, that ONS piece may be a bit out of date now. My personal opinion is that it should be monitored at least monthly, to spot changes that mighty affect guidance.

In terms of the pattern, for anyone interested (don't read if you'll become anxious from speculation, because this is only speculation based on the pattern I see). Look back at Swale in early October; it very suddenly gained new infections and was looking dreadful by early November. Fast forward to early December and this has spread throughout Kent, seeping into East London (already problematic) and Essex. Meanwhile early to mid November a tiny outbreak jointly in Roehampton and Wimbledon Common starts to spread. Over the course of mid November to mid December, those outbreaks have spread to encompass all of Kent and Essex, the majority of London (centre starting to fill in now), out into Surrey and down into Sussex. Places in the north with endemic infections took many more weeks to spread into the other towns, they only looked like large assess were affected because it took a long time to clear infections. Rulebreaking is everywhere to some degree, but the speed of spread looks different. To me, it's just got significantly more infectious somehow. I can speculate how the change in spike protein has caused this, but no evidence for my thoughts.

MRex · 17/12/2020 20:33

(*areas not assess!!)

Witchend · 17/12/2020 20:52

@MRex
Interesting thought that it may be more infectious. That's a good point.

Has this new variant been seen in other countries, so we can see if others are also increasing more rapidly.

Many years ago, I remember dm saying that if an illness became more infectious it generally became milder. Is that an old wives tale, or can we hope there?

Firefliess · 17/12/2020 20:55

@Witchend - it's not exactly an old wives take - one of the ways an virus can become more infectious is by becoming milder, so that people aren't too ill and go about spreading it. But that isn't the only way they can become more infectious, so it's not necessary true that it's milder.

Witchend · 17/12/2020 21:10

@Firefliess
Good point, I hadn't thought of it that way.

MRex · 17/12/2020 21:21

It is hard to compare illness severity with earlier in the pandemic because treatments have changed so much, so I only compare from September. I don't think it is milder nor worse, because hospitalisation rates don't seem to have had a dramatic change proportionally. As proportion of population infected rates got higher, it looked in April like severity increased, but it looks like that may have been the care homes, so I've no idea whether we should be taking that into account or not in comparing effects.

DecemberStar · 17/12/2020 21:39

Is the new strain the one they found in some European countries a couple of months ago? Thought to have been spread by people holidaying in ?Spain, iirc.

Keepdistance · 17/12/2020 21:46

With vit d being involved it will spread faster and be more severe as winter goes on.
Surely lots of our products come in via the tunnel in kent?
Transport in london is better than elsewhere and everyone rushed to the shops. (And theatres/pubs/cafes).
also it's like we braked but left the car going but as with shopping etc we are speeding back up. Lockdown didnt reduce the numbers in secondary kids.
Most effective should probably be isolating very close contacts and their family. All this siblings going in etc when the kids are asymptomatic is silly surely.

MRex · 17/12/2020 22:29

@DecemberStar - no, the UK has had that one and judging by north of England has largely passed until to the other side. This one is new and looks like it's come from Kent, but of course it may have snuck in on a ferry.

boys3 · 17/12/2020 22:35

@littleowl1 from the last thread since you asked Grin

Is it possible to add, one / some / all of

  • The current Tier each council is in
  • the positivity rate.
  • the key age groups, these seem to be at the moment 10-14s; 15-19s and 60 and over

With current 7 days and previous 7 days for the positivity and any age rates shown

Might get a bit busy, but all key bits of information.

FeelingBIue · 17/12/2020 22:49

Rates in Germany have been steadily rising too both in terms of number of infections and deaths. Italy also bad.

Are we seeing generally just a breakdown/lessening of compliance as we learn to live with the virus and it's risks?

Delatron · 17/12/2020 22:52

I’m puzzled about the German death rate. I was convinced in the first wave they did so well due to their amazing healthcare and the way the were treating early, oxygen use etc. Their death rate seems worse in this second wave? Maybe it didn’t hit the older population too hard last time for them? This time it is?

TheRubyRedshoes · 17/12/2020 23:12

Surely we are just seeing the results of a virus that loves the cold? It preserves and hardens it's fatty shell.?
Eg All the meat factory mass out breaks.

People being indoors flu season... It's a highly contagious disease and it flourishes in cold weather 🤷‍♂️

manicinsomniac · 18/12/2020 00:18

Anyone know what's going on with WHO and our stats today? It said 35,000 which freaked me out because I think that might be the highest ever? Then a few hours later it said £25,000. But now it says 35,000 again?!

FeelingBIue · 18/12/2020 00:20

@manicinsomniac

Anyone know what's going on with WHO and our stats today? It said 35,000 which freaked me out because I think that might be the highest ever? Then a few hours later it said £25,000. But now it says 35,000 again?!
Wales had an IT update a few days ago and ended up under-reporting 11k cases. Today was catch-up day.
manicinsomniac · 18/12/2020 00:44

Ah, ok. Thanks.

FATEdestiny · 18/12/2020 00:48

.

BooseysMom · 18/12/2020 02:07

20:55Firefliess
@Witchend - it's not exactly an old wives take - one of the ways an virus can become more infectious is by becoming milder, so that people aren't too ill and go about spreading it. But that isn't the only way they can become more infectious, so it's not necessary true that it's milder.

I've been reading another thread where there are many people testing positive with very mild symptoms. I know someome who was flabbergasted to find out she was positive and all she had was a sore throat. So it could be the case it's becoming milder and infecting more.