Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Lateral Flow tests appear to be counted under Pillar 2, no idea if the cases are included/double counted.

@cathyandclare

I'm not sure the people who use the app are worried, more people who want to help research. Everyone that I know who uses it is a health worker/ student/ scientist- mostly in their twenties to early fifties and low risk.

I agree. If anything I thought it could be lower because they're the people treating it seriously.

And the people who use Zoe aren't 'counted' unless they test positive!

Re the mew strain. I thought it was just being used to get London etc to accept tier 3. I'm sure there is a different strain and it could spread more easily, but probably not.

@RugsEverywhere - what research or data made you think that?

@RugsEverywhere
Viruses mutate. It would be more surprising if there weren't new strains appearing.

@DecemberStar

And the people who use Zoe aren't 'counted' unless they test positive!

Don't they produce an estimate of cases based on reported symptoms?

@RugsEverywhere

Re the mew strain. I thought it was just being used to get London etc to accept tier 3. I'm sure there is a different strain and it could spread more easily, but probably not.

It appears to be spreading more quickly although given the fact that most spread is by super spreaders that could still be random chance. There is some indication that the new variant has higher affinity with the ACE2 receptor though so increased spread is probable. London had to go into tier 3 because cases are rising rapidly and the hospitals are running out of beds. Two London trusts are cancelling operations and I know of a third that is only not cancelling operations because they've only been booking them at quite short notice.

@QueenStromba the number of lateral flow tests for England at least is shown on the dashboard. A count of test results and may include multiple tests for an individual person.

So the real question to probably be asked is why is the cumulative total only 660,000. 60,000 of those since 14th Dec. If mass university testing had seen a decent take you’d almost conclude there’s a couple of million shortfall. Or alternatively that far, far fewer students took the opportunity. Had the uni testing been a huge success the government would be rightly shouting about it. It’s almost as if it’s been wiped from history. [hmmm].

I'd be very surprised if all of the lateral flow tests are getting logged. I just don't see hospital trusts having a system for logging the results of the two tests a week they're providing their staff with (a friend of mine was just given a box of them to take home).

I agree. If anything I thought it could be lower because they're the people treating it seriously

I think that is part of what I meant by worried - I do not know anyone using the app other than people very concerned by coronavirus, I know lots of people who are not at all concerned by coronavirus because they consider it of no risk to them other than as something which would make them isolate themselves.

No numbers today yet...?

Oh... 28,507

28,507
489

m

We need to go back into lockdown

the schools are out. That might help a bit?

Schools being out isn't going to make up for Christmas let alone make a dent in the current rates.

Agh! so much for the hope that yesterday was just due to Wales. 😥

Those UK figures are appalling. Hopefully it will make some people reconsider their Xmas plans.

The BBC's spin on this was odd. They reported the figures as being 'less than yesterday'. Well, yes, obviously...

@herecomestheSon

the schools are out. That might help a bit?

How? All those infected kids are about to be let loose into Christmas bubbles. Who will then pass it around each other ready to go back to school. Those that are asymptomatic of course or just have a sniffle, which is most of them.

If anything, things will be hidden because they will avoid testing. It is the hospitals who will struggle when all the elderly relatives get really sick in about 4 weeks from now. 1 week until infection, 1 week incubation, 7-14 days before it really develops.

No point sugar coating it.

Yes I wish all the scientists and NHS bods would stop saying "January's going to be really difficult".

Surely what they mean is, "thousands of people are going to die avoidable deaths, some because we literally run out of beds and ventilators."

I think it is a possibility that case numbers will go down over the next two weeks but as a pp said I think that will be due to lots of people not wanting to go for a test in case they have to isolate over the festive period.

Probably less than 2wks since 100 areas were less than 100 per 100,000 - not that those rates can in any way be described as low - now less than 30 below that level.

Have to feel though for places such as Derbyshire Dales, tier 3 still but with a rate in the lowest 10 in England.

Fylde, Tameside, Stockport, Gateshead, High Peak, North East Links, Stratford on Avon all in lowest 50