Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Ok, I'm going to try a best case calculation - if they can do 2 minute slots, that's 30 an hour, or 1,050 per week, or 10.5m jabs for the extra 10,000 people being recruited. And let's say the existing NHS staff can do the usual number they do of flu jabs, that's about a further 1m a week, plus about the same again for pharmacists. So that comes to 12.5m jabs a week altogether. Or 6.25m people (2 jabs each) So through the 50m over 16s in the UK in about 8 weeks

I think this is unlikely tbh - they're bound to hit delays and hitches right, left and centre. But I think the key point is that the will and determination does seem to be there to get jabs out at whatever rate they can be manufactured at. Which isn't something we can really calculate.

Our two minute slot idea also hits a bit of a speed bump unless there’s a post-vaccination “holding room” - aren’t they suggesting/requiring a 15 minute wait after injection like some people have for flu vaccine (my boyfriend was held for 15 mins after his but I was told to go as soon as the needle was out 😂)? I now know of two people that have been vaccinated (both HCPs) so it’s starting to feel much closer than before which is great

What's the problem with Sputnik apart from Putin being the leader of the country that developed it and racism, ie thinking that Russian scientists cannot develop a vaccine?

@istherelifeafter40

What's the problem with Sputnik apart from Putin being the leader of the country that developed it and racism, ie thinking that Russian scientists cannot develop a vaccine?

There is the matter of a scientist that worked on it falling out of a window last week.

That raises a few questions for a start.

I don't claim any knowledge, I wonder if there is any grounds, like lack of data, etc because Sputnik is constantly mentioned in derogatory ways on these threads. I have friends in Russia through work and I personally know someone who took part in the trials and has antibodies now. I also know that some people in Russia are very suspicious about the vaccine, and there is a high volume of US-based conspiracy theories that circulate in verbatim translation on Russian social media. If there are no medical grounds but only ideological bashing of the vaccine / conspiracy that the vaccine will put a chip in you, it will be a real tragedy for a country that might not have any other vaccine?

@istherelifeafter40

What's the problem with Sputnik apart from Putin being the leader of the country that developed it and racism, ie thinking that Russian scientists cannot develop a vaccine?

I'm all for it as soon as they publish all data and that data is verified to be not tampered with. Since they so far failed to do so I will pass.

And many people in eastern europe have an inherent caution when it comes to anything russia related.
Just think back to what happened in 1986 and how it unfolded. There is a very good reason to be suspicious and cautious.

@istherelifeafter40 - Sputnik comes in two parts; the second half has to be kept extremely cold and the other part not; a bit like having one Oxford dose then one Pfizer. It's possible some aspects were borrowed in the hacking incidents. The Sputnik research and details haven't been published, so it's difficult to have faith in the figures or understand side effects, possible allergic reactions etc; there is a typical Russian-style reticence to allow any issues to surface - even though all the vaccines will undoubtedly have some issues.
I would think it works ok or they wouldn't be using it. It's the efficacy when supply issues arise, tolerance with certain conditions / medications and side effects that are bigger risks. We know they've had some transport issues arranging distribution (similar to Pfizer, it might reduce efficacy if not done carefully), and it appears there were some concerns about the first part; since then Oxford has started a trial replacing the first part. It could be very positive for future relations with Russia if that goes ahead and if Russians are able to see that the UK is happy to help regardless of other political issues. It won't make a difference to global politics with Putin in power, but you never know how things can change with the next leader, remember Gorbachev. It's necessary as well, given that this is the only vaccine some people will get.

.

My Gp mate said yesterday that he thought that vaccinations will start to be churned out very quickly over the next few weeks.

I'm asthmatic and he keeps saying "you'll get it sooner." I said not according to the lists etc, and he felt those would be worked through v quickly, so moving onto the lower "flu jab" lot who don't qualify for the current groups listed relatively quickly. (The "calculator" had me on June- august! Basically well before then.)

They have been giving their missed appointments to anyone they know who is available. Generally close family of staff so far, as anyone who wants it does have to get there quickly.

He had strong opinions about school staff being vaccinated, a priority in his opinion.

Right now, the bottle neck is vaccine supply. Once Oxford is approved then I would expect vaccination rates to sky-rocket.

This is basically what he was saying.

My point was supply. I know we’ve ordered 100 m but how many are available ready to go each week? I don’t know the answer but I’d imagine there’s less supply issues each year with flu vaccines. I’m not sure you can compare the two.

I have come across a few tedious pseudo statisticians on here lately parroting the Great Barrington Declaration, or their mouthpiece, Julia Hartley Brewer. This article provides most of the rebuttal:

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-disinformation_uk_5fe848f7c5b6e1ce833a20de?fbclid=IwAR2mjxkz4E7O6Sviu0fIemdirN5_BFylz0mNR0o2DfMfdes34fojc-Xa1nA

I’m reading 4million doses of Oxford available to start with, but this might be incorrect. Are we then manufacturing in U.K. does anyone know?

A lot of the papers are talking about mass vaccination in village halls etc.

This 'churning out' of vaccines only makes any sense in areas that have already begun vaccinating. There are areas, many in tier 4, that haven't even started on the over 80s.

There is a mass vaccination place being 'constructed' in our county. We saw it the other day. It will be a temp construction I think. I know its not going to be the only place as I know of st least one other in a church.

@Piggyinblankets

I cannot tell you how relieved I am to see your post!!! My DH started listening to Talk Radio a few months ago and now has some blooming daft ideas (a la "Julia")

Every time I walk into our conservatory there is this ridiculous presenter called Julia spouting utter nonsense on the radio. She is an absolute disgrace. I do not know how she sleeps at night. The last straw was when she spent 45 minutes banging on convincing her listeners now to wear facemasks.

I told DH it was me or Julia before Xmas! I didn't want my day-to-day life punctuated with such reprehensible drivel spouting from the radio (or from DH for that matter)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I haven't heard Julia since, to be fair. Thankfully. And I had no idea who she was but I have just googled "Julia Hartley Brewer" and she is the Talk Radio host that has been brainwashing DH!!

Now my Julia rant is over....

In other news, we lost power and broadband to Storm Bella yesterday so I couldn't update the table on the homepage of Covid Messenger. It is now updated with the latest data on www.covidmessenger.com.

@Piggyinblankets yes 84 year old relative without a spleen still not heard anything re their vaccination. It’s all very well setting up huge venues but nobody can answer how the supply chain of vaccine is looking week on week.

@Oaktree55 - there was an article in the Guardian this morning that said 40 million doses of Oxford for the U.K. by the end of March. Obviously it’s a report in the Guardian so no idea if correct and it doesn’t give the weekly roll out.

@littleowl1 - I also wanted to say thanks again for the service you provide! Albeit the numbers in my borough are now absolutely shocking ( London) and still rising, I do find it so helpful to see them each day ( and hope at some point I will start to see a stabilising or fall!). It’s a shame in a way councils themselves don’t publicise them more - although I guess many people don’t want to know, which I also understand.

Watching exponential growth in action has been pretty shocking though .

[quote littlestpogo]@Oaktree55 - there was an article in the Guardian this morning that said 40 million doses of Oxford for the U.K. by the end of March. Obviously it’s a report in the Guardian so no idea if correct and it doesn’t give the weekly roll out.[/quote]
Is that 40million vaccine vials manufactured or 40million doses actually injected into people? Sorry, have looked for the article and can’t find it.

My fear is that we can get plenty of the vaccines made, but it’s actually getting it into people which will be the logistics nightmare.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@QueenStromba

There are 52 weeks in a year so 6 months to do 26 million people at a rate of a million a week. 52 million in a year.

To be honest I'd really hope we could move more quickly than that.[/quote]
You're forgetting that it's two doses. Do you seriously think I don't know how many weeks there are in a year?

@JacobReesMogadishu - I assume it means manufactured and available to the NhS to use in vaccination.

As I said it’s just an article in the guardian so I wouldn’t take it as correct (given how often the media reports incorrectly). Think we all just have to wait and see unfortunately.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/63-of-doctors-in-survey-say-they-have-not-had-covid-vaccine

[quote PatriciaHolm]Another issue for maximum rollout is going to be trained staff to administer (and make sure people are asked the right questions about allergies etc, and monitored for a short time after administration). I know the NHS has made a plea for as many people with relevant experience as possible to come forward - I wonder how that's going?

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/19/nhs-assembles-army-of-staff-for-mass-coronavirus-vaccinations[/quote]
Fairly shit I think. I signed up with nhs professionals end of November and apart from an auto reply email saying “we’ll be in touch in the next 7 days” have heard bugger all from them. I’m a qualified and registered HCP, still active on the register. I’d have thought they’d want me?