Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Looks like Tim Spector from Zoe has picked up on the issue we were discussing about the Zoe cases being now lower than the reported test numbers. He doesn't seem to have any explanation, though there's some speculation below his tweet. See:

For the first time - the government confirmed cases figures have exceeded our survey estimates and those of ONS. This is hard to explain as our methods haven’t changed since May ?? t.co/6fKJL39ymI

Many more asymptomatic than previously, perhaps due to new strain??

This is hard to explain - not remotely, and he's being disingenuous to say so. In order of likelihood:

1. People still signed up to ONS / Zoe are more cautious about covid and less likely to be infected; we talked a lot before about responder bias.
2. More tightly targeted testing (sewage etc) would lead to higher positivity count than the randomised sampling (slightly affected by 1, but exaggerated by test-in-hotspot activity).
3. A higher proportion of post-infection cases being picked up by more randomised tests; test 100 and 5 had it in the last few weeks plus 3 have it now, you'll get something like 6 or 7 - but only 3 infectious now.
4. Asymptomatic / pre-symptomatic is a possibility, but should be caught by ONS, so less likely.

New strain is really interesting but I’m not sure it can be milder because people only get tested when they really are very ill? You’re quite ill when you have a fever ?

Maybe it runs longer pre symptomatic ?

@Itisasecret
re kids being home, overall numbers went down in lockdown.

So on the one hand, kids being out of the school petri dish may be a positive.

On the other hand, everyone getting together round the fire hugging each other etc is going to lead to increased infections. so overall, I'd agree, I'm pessimistic.

@QueenStromba

I'd be very surprised if all of the lateral flow tests are getting logged. I just don't see hospital trusts having a system for logging the results of the two tests a week they're providing their staff with (a friend of mine was just given a box of them to take home).

We have to report every test (positive or negative). There's a web form to fill in.

A scientist on R4 news just now saying that R could end up well over 2, maybe 3 if everyone bubbled "to the max"! Didn't catch who he was though.

More anecdata, but we've had DC's infant school shut due to a positive case in the year below DC. We've been notified of 6 subsequent positive tests, 3 of whom were staff. Given the age of the children concerned, I've been surprised at how far and quickly it's spread.

There has also separately been a nasty cold going round (not Covid as people have been testing negative with it). This article shared earlier on the thread talks about people having both colds and Covid, and the cold symptoms helping to spread the Covid www.spiegel.de/international/world/new-on-the-covid-19-front-lines-children-may-be-driving-the-pandemic-after-all-a-95e4c0e7-2ea0-479b-ac27-d17f07d147a5 . Is that possibly another factor as well as whatever difference the new strain makes in why Covid now seems to be spreading differently?

Duckchick That's very interesting - and worrying. I wish we had more 'hard' answers at this point!

Regarding the uni students question, I'm in the North West and the uni has been tight lipped throughout about numbers, but they recently told us that circa 3000 students did the 2 lateral flow tests and all of them were negative. (Impressive, right? But we have many more students than that in total; the testing itself started just after lockdown and I assume those who got tests were among the more reasonable students, etc.)

I did wonder how many other universities had similarly low figures or if ours weren't actually representative of our student population, given that we're in a Tier 3 area.

^ just after lockdown ended

@Motorina does anyone check your inputted results vs the number of tests you've been given (i.e. Could you never test and no one know?)

[quote NoGoodPunsLeft]@Motorina does anyone check your inputted results vs the number of tests you've been given (i.e. Could you never test and no one know?)[/quote]
I don’t know. But doing the testing is voluntary, so I think there would be little incentive to do that, particularly as we don’t lose pay if we test positive and stay home.

We get a weekly newsletter. Not just covid but, these days, mostly COVID. It says this many tests have been distributed, and that many tests reported, with this number of positives. So the figures are being looked at overall. But on the level of checking if an individual has tested? That I don’t know.

(Not sharing the figures cos I don’t know if they’re public domain or not.)

A friend of mine who works in a Covid testing center says they've just had their busiest ever day yesterday. I imagine this is the pre Christmas rush of worried well getting checked before visiting family (I know of several myself who've done this, none of whom have actually got symptoms) So I would expect to see a big increase in testing numbers over the next few days. This may be accompanied by a temporary fall in reported cases, as the positive test results get held up at the labs in queues behind the worried well (most of whom will be negative). I hope the labs can cope with the extras. I know they've been expecting a bit of an influx.

I've just been looking at some of the data for Sussex. How can they justify not moving Eastbourne (cases up more than 100% in a week) and Crawley (cases up more than 150% in a week) to tier 3? They're clearly going to be as bad as Folkestone is now in a couple of weeks. What's the point in putting it off?

Eastbourne has a particular issue because it’s basically a giant retirement village. Known locally as “Costa Geriatica”. High case numbers there will almost inevitably be high cases in the elderly.

@QueenStromba

I've just been looking at some of the data for Sussex. How can they justify not moving Eastbourne (cases up more than 100% in a week) and Crawley (cases up more than 150% in a week) to tier 3? They're clearly going to be as bad as Folkestone is now in a couple of weeks. What's the point in putting it off?

Surrey and Waverley exception doesn't make sense either. There is a large dark purple area in Waverly surrounded by white. The average infection rate is therefore low, but it also has pockets of high infection. Patients would also all go to hospital in Guildford, which is Tier 3.

Jeremy Hunt lives in Waverley ! I imagine all these areas be added Dec 30. Seems bonkers as they all have fast rising rates.

I did wonder how many other universities had similarly low figures or if ours weren't actually representative of our student population, given that we're in a Tier 3 area.

University of Nottingham, tier 3, have numbers less than 5 daily. They currently have 17 active cases in total, our of 35,000 student and staff populations.

www.nottingham.ac.uk/coronavirus/covid-19-active-case-statistics.aspx

They've been really diligent with testing and publishing data throughout, so I don't doubt the accuracy.

I wonder if the reason those patches haven’t been added is because they know where the outbreaks are (some have highest rates in elderly , so wondering if care homes involved ). Otherwise there is no sense to it.

I think they're just rubbish at forward planning.

@BigWoollyJumpers - could the purple area be a care home?
In principle, being cautious to have the whole county on the same tier would make more sense, just wondering if that explained your purple & white.

Or very easily persuaded by ex health secretaries

I feel they should be sharing news of where outbreaks are really.

As in - care home, school, workplace. The type of setting. Or just general community. It makes a difference to risk assessment eg pulling kids out to do home learning etc