Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thank you both that is really interesting.

I've just seen that the Health Service Journal are once again making their content free online.
A good source of info for those who are interested.

@Chaotic45 that’s fairly worrying about your DHs workplace, whereabouts are you in the country?

@QueenStromba not sure if I’m comparing like with like there, you’re right. But either way, weekly numbers of 300 odd compared with daily numbers of 70 (70 x 7 = 490) still doesn’t add up does it?

We expect the Zoe numbers to be higher though because they're counting people without the main three symptoms and people with the main three symptoms that decide to just isolate rather than bother getting a test. The only time it should be lower is if the government numbers include a lot of asymptomatic testing.

@Chaotic45 it’s interesting about your DH’s workplace. Could be a superspreader?

But surely even if they are following ‘Covid secure’ procedures they are all working under the same roof, sharing the same bathroom? Etc. Isn’t it more likely they’ve spread it between themselves than from Joe public popping into the shop for 5 minutes? I don’t know if I’ve misunderstood the work situation though.

I still feel popping in to a shop, wandering around for 10 minutes then leaving is low risk. Versus close contact indoors for one hour plus?

Thanks for your replies. It's odd. When is the next ONS sampling survey out? Is that today? Will be interesting to see what that says and if it aligns with Zoe's estimates as well.

It's out.
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18december2020

@1990s Midlands, tier 3 since forever!

Oh @Chaotic45 that sucks. Things can only get better (at some point!)

@Delatron yes I guess it could be a super spreader event.

They share a bathroom and use several offices and a staff room at lunchtime. Bathroom is cleaned after every use and lunch is taken alone, on a rota with the area cleaned and no shared items.

That notwithstanding its impossible to be completely Covid secure.

I guess what I meant was that for the customers who had been in the shop over that last few days they will have been in an environment where 17/20 of the staff had Covid. All customers visit by appt only but some stay a long time and I think they will have been at risk....

I'm sure you're right Chaotic - with most of the staff being positive there must be a lot of virus in the air and on surfaces.

I don't know if anyone knows the answer to my question? DD tested positive in the uni end of term testing & so then had to get a confirmatory PCR test (also positive). Is the system sophisticated to know that she is the same person twice? This is in Wales btw, and I know of several students in Wales found positive on the end of term tests. She had no symptoms at all.

Do they even count the lateral flow tests in the official data?

Have I misunderstood or are the German figures absolutely dreadful at the moment?

Yeah, their death rate is worse than ours. Does anyone know what's happened there? Has it got into the care homes or something?

Ah yes @Chaotic45 if the customers are in there a long time then that would increase the risk a lot.

NHS Trusts are now fully integrated in the Dashboard and may be viewed on postcode and the Healthcare pages.
mobile.twitter.com/Pouriaaa/status/1339745831881236481
Pouria Hadjibagheri
@Pouriaaa
Software Engineer. UK COVID-19 dashboard's tech guy.
Researcher in neuroscience, biomedical data science, AI/ML, and bioinformatics.

Thanks @Firefliess that makes sense about Germany and the first wave. They did just seem to have it more under control. I wonder if the managed to keep it more in the younger population? And this time it’s hit the older population more.

Ah for bigchoc.....

@QueenStromba

Yeah, their death rate is worse than ours. Does anyone know what's happened there? Has it got into the care homes or something?

No, it's just they have now experienced the same issues that we had in the first wave. When you get to a certain level of infection, which, like ours, started to increase after summer holidays, then you loose control of your contract tracing, however good it is, and the growth becomes exponential.

There is a very interesting article on Switzerland on the BBC today. I haven't referenced it anywhere else, because I think some would find it upsetting, but they have an incredibly pragmatic view of death from Covid. I don't think it would go down well in the this country, but it is interesting reading, and personally I quite like their approach.

• and I meant to add, that the Germans have similar health issues to the UK in terms of diabetes and obesity, and similar age profiles, and therefore have similar outcomes, regardless of numbers of beds or ventilators, as we now know, ventilators are not the key.

We expect the Zoe numbers to be higher though because they're counting people without the main three symptoms and people with the main three symptoms that decide to just isolate rather than bother getting a test

I don't think so, as the majority of people who have the Zoe app are the worried surely, and they are much more likely to test - you can see how much lower the positivity is in the recent flu surveillance report, which had Zoe positivity rates lower than the mass testing in Liverpool. I think Zoe is getting less and less representative as the behaviour of people likely worried enough to engage with Zoe and others diverges further and further.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/945441/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_w51.pdf

@QueenStromba

Do they even count the lateral flow tests in the official data?

My understanding is that they become part of the tracking system (such as it is!)

I'm not sure the people who use the app are worried, more people who want to help research. Everyone that I know who uses it is a health worker/ student/ scientist- mostly in their twenties to early fifties and low risk.