Does anyone think london will go in to tier 3 before Xmas?

[Christmastime4]

Does anyone think london will go in to tier 3 before Xmas?

@NuttyinNotts

Nottingham case rates are below the national average now. But we've been told to expect to remain in tier 3.

That would be hugely unfair and I don't know how it would be justified unless its to do with hospital statistics. Hopefully just your press stirring up headlines.

One thing to remember about the national average is that it changes as the numbers change.

London numbers in November were deemed as very good.

London has the same rate now (rising though) but is now causing concern.

People in hospital /positive being over 60 is a consideration.

I live in an area that is T2 but seems like it should be T3 based on cases per 100k but the positives are dominated by secondary school kids and the hospital has capacity.

Yes on 16 Dec. Have been trying to decide whether we should have one little lunch out as a family beforehand or whether it's already too late and we should just stay in now.

Hard as it is I think we need to step away from looking at this as fair or unfair.
Taking London as an example if the numbers are high but the hospitals are not seeing a rise why does it need to move to tier 3?
Equally let’s say Nottingham numbers are falling but hospitals still really struggling, is it the right thing to move them down based on numbers alone? (I don’t know the numbers/hospital situation for either - it’s just an example)
No decisions should be made just to keep another region happy.

Numbers are climbing in my area of London, we definitely shouldn’t be in tier 2.

@nancy75

Hard as it is I think we need to step away from looking at this as fair or unfair. Taking London as an example if the numbers are high but the hospitals are not seeing a rise why does it need to move to tier 3? Equally let’s say Nottingham numbers are falling but hospitals still really struggling, is it the right thing to move them down based on numbers alone? (I don’t know the numbers/hospital situation for either - it’s just an example) No decisions should be made just to keep another region happy.

Maybe if it is because of the hospitals, people living in tier 3 areas shouldn't be seen as lepers spreading the virus into tier 2 areas. On many threads there are people shouting and panicking should a tier 3 person enter their area or one of their restaurants.

According to Sky news hospitals in the south east are approaching levels seen during the first wave so I'd say they will be struggling soon if they aren't already.

@SomewhereEast

I don't think it would be. For example Greater Manchester covers a significant area & has almost always been lumped in together, even when rates varied quite a bit from one part to another. IIRC London would be the first city not to be treated as a whole, which would piss off others no end.

But it's a lot bigger than any other city. If people call for this based on equality of suffering and avoiding pissing off others, they are basically saying they would prefer the UK to take a greater economic hit than it needs to, which we'll all end up paying for in years of austerity. Putting another 8 million people & their businesses into Tier 3 just to be fair to everyone already in Tier 3 is madness if it's possible to avoid it by dealing with it borough by borough.

I'm not sure you can avoid it by doing borough by borough - it didn't really work in Madrid when they tried it like that.

However it might work to treat the outer boroughs differently to the inner boroughs. Wherever you draw a line you're going to have border issues, and it doesn't make much difference whether those border issues are between Slough and Windsor, or Surrey and Kent, or Bromley and Lewisham, for example.

On many threads there are people shouting and panicking should a tier 3 person enter their area or one of their restaurants

You had it when Wales was coming out of lockdown and England was just going in - people saying that if you were in Wales for work you should take a packed lunch and hide in your car and under no circumstances enter a shop or cafe to buy lunch.

People have really lost their minds.

London is the only Region where all areas are in a single Tier. Calls from many that's unfair. But if London's all put into Tier 3 that becomes fair?

You want London treated the same as other regions and putting the problematic areas into Tier 3 will do exactly that. Some Tier 2, some Tier3.

Oh hang on - that's not good enough. Now you want London treated differently to the every other Region. One area Tier 3 all must go into Tier 3.

Do you call for the same for the North West Region? Or the South West?

Or just London.

There is an algorithm. It includes cases per 100,000 and hospital bed occupancy and availability per head of population. And several other factors...but no one here seems to know the algorithm...and I certainly don't.

@FeelingBIue London is not the only region The whole of the North East is in tier 3, that includes several cities, towns and massive rural areas where cases are tiny. I live somewhere were cases are below the national average, 92/100000 and we are In Tier 3. So I do think either they should put all of London in T3 or divide up the North East and Manchester in to areas or I really think there maybe civil unrest. We have been under extra restrictions for months and months as have many people and it seems there is no going back x

I think the confusion is that Greater London is both a county and a region - whereas every other region is made up of a few counties .
The allocation to tiers was mostly done at county level (except I think Slough).

clareykb - i stand corrected - I had assumed, mistakenly, that North Yorkshire and York were in the North East.

I still believe that the call for All of London to go into Tier 3 is as unjustified as it is for other areas. Two wrongs don't make a right but there's an aire of vengeance in some posts and I don't understand what 9 million people have done to cause such animosity against them.

I only lived 40 years in London and never knew it was also a single county. Never stop learning.

Here's a video of the Tories announcing the areas they'll put into tier 3. AKA the areas they' ll fuck over in any given crisis. Spoiler - they announced the tier 3 areas 30 years ago.

I don't think it is the 9million people that anyone up north has any bad feeling about @FeelingBIue it's the preferential treatment of those people by the government who are supposed to represent us all. I married to southerner absolutely no animosity towards any of my in laws but if you ran a pub or cafe in Northumberland where rates were tiny and you had been shut for ages because you had been lumped I. Tier 3 with the large student city 30 miles away yet your leader said that people with similar businesses could operate in London as it 'couldnt be treated as one area' How would you feel. It's not the people it's the leadership. Currently we can't take the kids to see their Granny over Christmas (big family so we're going to go for new year as over 3 households already) She lives in tier 2, we are in 3 and technically can't travel out despite the facts rates are the same in both places. That's what upsets people.

@clareykb Travel between tiers is guidance only - not the law

It depends on your definition of ‘unfair treatment’ Many on here are constantly gagging for greater lockdown -those people may feel that the people in the hitherto Tier 3 localities have been unfairly given greater ‘safety’ over their own terrifyingly dangerous Tier 2 region.

Tbh though being in tier 2 hasn't actually helped London as cases have sky rocketed. I wouldn't really like to be in that situation right now.
I'm in Derbyshire which is tier 3. The part of Derbyshire I live in went into tier 3 at the same time as London, before the tier system changed.
Our numbers have been falling steadily ever since.
The downside is that businesses will have suffered immensely during this time. I worry about the future of my town

The R rate for London is now 1.1 and 0.8 or 0.9 for the rest of England.

@clareykb I agree with you, from up here it's looking like London is getting preferential treatment, the mass testing going on in the schools in London hasn't helped matters, where was our testing when it was spreading like wildfire? We were thrown into tighter restrictions in summer and have been there every since, it really does feel like we've been forgotten about.

No deal brexit - no tier 3
Deal - tier 3

Newsflash: That blonde twat really doesn't give a fuck about the health of the nation.

By the way gang, you do realise that it's not Londoners themselves making these decisions right? 🤷‍♀️

London does generate the bulk of the tax revenues which support much of the rest of the country. Like it or not, there is a very real north/south divide. It seems as though some people are just dying to see London put into Tier 3 out of spite rather than necessity.

With the ‘Xmas amnesty’ just around the corner I would think any upward tier changes would probably come into force after that, but honestly, your guess is as good as mine!!