Does anyone think london will go in to tier 3 before Xmas?

[Christmastime4]

Does anyone think london will go in to tier 3 before Xmas?

@Delatron hopefully...looked it up last night. Central Beds has about 100 cases for towns that go under that Council...Luton 300. Know there's so many other factors but still...
Dont think they'll go up just yet. See what happens after Christmas.

If it doesn’t and existing tier 3 stays in place there will be mutiny

Thanks @toomanydogsandchildren yes, put much better than I did

So London and surrounding areas are getting mass testing for school children, yet those of us that have been in tier 3 for months... nothing. Where is the fairness???

It’s not “London” it’s a handful of fringe regions of London/Essex/Kent which are getting testing, but you’re right of course, other areas with equally high levels of infection among the 11-18s should also get rapid testing of secondary pupils, and it should have happened ages ago.

One thing that may affect tier choice is that London has a younger population than, say, Devon, so similar levels of infection will place noticeably less strain on hospitals.

@LearnedResponse but we don’t have similar levels, our levels are far, far lower. We were promised mass testing as a “sweetener” to stop us whinging about being in tier 3, yet there is none and now we find out there will be in other areas. Can people understand why we feel forgotten and not cared about?

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-london-now-has-highest-infection-rate-in-england-ons-12157035

It looks like London will go into tier 3. No news about changes for other areas?

Yes I absolutely understand why people in existing tier 3 regions are pissed off at not getting on-demand testing.

Being stuck in tier 3 when your immediate local area has fewer cases is mostly a function of hospital strain as I understand it though. As someone from a low prevalence area of inner London I’ll be pissed off if Havering shoves us into Tier 3 but we don’t get the testing upside, but I do understand the rationale behind the boundaries: sadly we can’t just set fire to the North and South Circular as per Good Omens and keep everyone else out.

Positive cases do not equate to illness.

One of the problems is that cities and county’s are treated as one regardless of their size and therefore there is a range of numbers of cases.

I wonder if any of the tier 3 cities where cases have dropped will be changed to tier 2.
The relaxation of the bubbles is only for Christmas and not NY.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/latest-coronavirus-infection-rates-greater-19437078.amp

Just looked at news about one of the tier 3 areas - Manchester. The article refers to dividing up the city. I wonder if they will do that for London and other large cities.

Definitely should be. I cannot fathom the justification for lumping in London with its spiralling case numbers with those other counties in tier 2 which have very low numbers. Where I am the case rate is 43 in 100,000 yet we're tier 2 along with London... go figure.

Someone mentioned breaking up the boroughs. If they do this in London they need to consider doing it broadly across the nation. We have one small district in our county with higher numbers (but still pretty low in comparison) and that district has meant the whole of the county is in tier 2.

@Parker231 I am in Derbyshire (tier 3) and cases here are below the national average in most parts. I think the east Midlands was pretty much lumped together in tier 3 because of the high cases in Leicester and Nottingham a few weeks back. I'm wondering if we will be put into tier 2. We were tier 1 before lockdown apart from a couple of boroughs near Nottinghamshire.

@ExeterMummaMia

Definitely should be. I cannot fathom the justification for lumping in London with its spiralling case numbers with those other counties in tier 2 which have very low numbers. Where I am the case rate is 43 in 100,000 yet we're tier 2 along with London... go figure.

Someone mentioned breaking up the boroughs. If they do this in London they need to consider doing it broadly across the nation. We have one small district in our county with higher numbers (but still pretty low in comparison) and that district has meant the whole of the county is in tier 2.

I don't think breaking into boroughs would work, but there must be an argument for zones. Ditto in other areas.

What about after Christmas? Think tier 3 then?

It’s a bit weird treating larger cities as all one though. Especially come next weekend when fewer people go in to work.

If they do fence off London can we stay in the EU? As we voted overwhelmingly for it?

Lol AndcalloffChristmas, hope so but in either case I'm sure we'll be part of it again one day.

@AndcalloffChristmas

If they do fence off London can we stay in the EU? As we voted overwhelmingly for it?

Haha, yes! Thingy Whathisname the SNP leader in Westminster is always banging on about Scotland being taken out of Europe against its will. Well, London willed it even less and there are more people in it than Scotland. So...

@AndcalloffChristmas Yes please!

I'm in London and don't want us to go into tier 3 but if we are measured by the same factors the northern areas were and showing the same indicators, and we're NOT put into tier 3 then i would be outraged on their behalf. I was hoping the rhetoric of parliament treating the north badly was nonsense, but we'll see next Thursday.

Don't think so. Economically it will be protected unlike parts of the north which get rapidly Tier 3d...

@OxanaVorontsova

If it doesn’t and existing tier 3 stays in place there will be mutiny

This! I don't want to go all Aggrieved Northerner, but I'm so angry at all the "We can't put London into Tier 3 because it will cost hundreds of thousands of jobs" stuff. What the hell do you think its doing elsewhere? Either the collateral damage is acceptable, or it isn't. Its hard not to feel that basically alot of journos & commentators are upset now its suddenly their favourite hangouts going bust

I would seem terribly unfair on the Northern cities and regions that have been tier 3 if London doesn’t go the same way on 16th. But then again it will be economically ruinous.

I think they’ll go down the separating boroughs route for this reason as they can’t be seen to leave the whole of London is tier 2.

Maybe they’ll split up some other cities too? Probably harder to do.

I’m in London and don’t want to be in tier 3 but there can’t be different criteria for different parts of the country.