Does anyone think london will go in to tier 3 before Xmas?

[Christmastime4]

Does anyone think london will go in to tier 3 before Xmas?

I suspect that politically it might have to go the other way around - London being put into tier 3 at a point when hospital capacity doesn’t necessarily justify it because they don’t want to be seen to be unfair. That’s probably not a bad thing anyway, the rise is almost exclusively in children at the moment, but if we don’t act early it will rise up to progressively older age bands as we’ve seen elsewhere.

I would seem terribly unfair on the Northern cities and regions that have been tier 3 if London doesn’t go the same way on 16th. But then again it will be economically ruinous.

Yes it would, we've been living under these restrictions since June/July and it's absolutely decimated our hospitality industry. It's been very tough going.

Does anyone actually know what the algorithm is???

I cannot fathom the justification for lumping in London with its spiralling case numbers with those other counties in tier 2 which have very low numbers

there can’t be different criteria for different parts of the country

I don't want to defend the govt, but it seems to be mostly about NHS capacity. London's NHS is coping (due to young population, majority of cases in low risk groups, bigger NHS capacity to cope with tourists, etc). Other areas have hospitals apparently at critical levels, despite falling infection rates.

So the school testing in a few London boroughs is designed to try and stop Covid spiking in more vulnerable age groups. Of course mass testing should have been done elsewhere, but it feels like some people just want Londoners to suffer with more economic damage and more deaths, just because it will be seen as 'fair'.

I understand the anger (most of my family is in the north west and north east), but dragging down another city isn't going to help Manchester, Newcastle or other areas. It will damage the whole of the UK economy and put greater strain on NHS resources country-wide.

I don't trust this government to act morally or rationally, but I hope someone is keeping track of what has been learned from the Liverpool testing and from what happens in east London schools in the next week, and will apply that knowledge elsewhere in the country over the next few weeks. Surely that's what needs to happen, not doing major economic damage just to ensure that everyone is treated equally.

It does seem to be partly (largely?) about hospital capacity that’s true. And London does have a younger population.

The annoying thing is the speculation and not knowing, for all parts of the country.

That’s why I think they’ll split the boroughs - so that other parts of England dNot feel aggrieved as much, but the economy keeps going in other boroughs. I think NE London and Essex will go.

I would shut the schools now though as that’s where the cases are in London - and I was never a “shut the schools” monger.

I'm anticipating it, I don't think they can justify tier 3 anywhere else if London doesn't given the numbers.

I think if they split the London boroughs, the same will need to apply to other large cities - Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle etc and then it gets complicated!

Does anyone know where we can see the actual algorithm???

@nancy75

If London needs to go into tier 3 they should just do it now, why wait for an arbitrary date to make the change? I live in London, numbers in my area shot up last week, dd’s school has sent home all but years 11,12 & 13. Meanwhile we have 10 days of will we or won’t we hanging over businesses that might or might not close. The reaction of the govt is always too slow & too late.

I agree, I think tier 3 should happen for 1 week, from tonight until next friday.

But then i really feel for the businesses who are trying so hard x

@Parker231

I think if they split the London boroughs, the same will need to apply to other large cities - Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle etc and then it gets complicated!

Are there any of the Regions where the whole of that Region has been put into Tier 3 because as far as I can see Regions HAVE been split up into different Tiers.

So splitting London up and putting only some boroughs into Tier 3 would be treating London the same as the other Regions.

I don't think it would be. For example Greater Manchester covers a significant area & has almost always been lumped in together, even when rates varied quite a bit from one part to another. IIRC London would be the first city not to be treated as a whole, which would piss off others no end.

@SomewhereEast

I don't think it would be. For example Greater Manchester covers a significant area & has almost always been lumped in together, even when rates varied quite a bit from one part to another. IIRC London would be the first city not to be treated as a whole, which would piss off others no end.

Greater Manchester is in the North West Region

Cumbria, Liverpool City Region and Warrington and Cheshire are in Tier 2.

So not all of the North West Region is in Tier 3. It has been split into different Tiers.

I think it would be tricky if not mad to put people on the Eastern fringes of London into tier 3 but allow the restaurants, pubs and theatres of the West End to stay open. I think it would inevitably result in people heading in on the Tube for a night out.

@FindHungrySamurai

I think it would be tricky if not mad to put people on the Eastern fringes of London into tier 3 but allow the restaurants, pubs and theatres of the West End to stay open. I think it would inevitably result in people heading in on the Tube for a night out.

Very true. How could you stop them?

www.gov.uk/guidance/full-list-of-local-restriction-tiers-by-area

Looks like it’s by country

If it were anywhere else in the country then I would say definitely. As it is (and as a slightly cynical northerner) I would say that the politicians will do everything in their power to not make it tier 3.

Absolutely this.

North South divide i action again.

*in action

@SkiingIsHeaven

If it were anywhere else in the country then I would say definitely. As it is (and as a slightly cynical northerner) I would say that the politicians will do everything in their power to not make it tier 3.

Absolutely this.

North South divide i action again.

Yup. Here in W Yorks we have less than half the cases per 100k of some London boroughs, yet we are still stuck in tier 3.

How do you stop anyone travelling out of their Tier though?

Yup. Here in W Yorks we have less than half the cases per 100k of some London boroughs, yet we are still stuck in tier 3.

Totally agree but what were your rates when you went into Tier 3? Hopefully at the review next week lots of areas will be put back down into Tier 2.

London rates are worryingly on the rise but they are still only at the same level they were when it was put into Tier 2, but only just. Obviously that is changing and parts of it need to go into Tier 3.

Totally agree but what were your rates when you went into Tier 3? Hopefully at the review next week lots of areas will be put back down into Tier 2.

I think we were at about 350 then - now we are under 200.

Nottingham case rates are below the national average now. But we've been told to expect to remain in tier 3.

It is pointless putting some boroughs in London in tier 3 and not others. London is too interconnected by public transportation for work and social reasons. Put say havering in tier 3 and simply see places in say barking and Stratford being rammed with people coming from there.

Just checked and per 100k of population data up to week/e 5th December:-

Waltham Forest - 322 - up from 208 the previous week.

Newham is 266 - up from 238 the previous week.

Redbridge 300 - down from 306 the previous week.

Havering - 390 - up from 290 previous week.

London as a whole region - 191 - up from 158 the previous week