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Original poster

Does anyone think london will go in to tier 3 before Xmas?

266 replies

Christmastime4 · 08/12/2020 12:04

Does anyone think london will go in to tier 3 before Xmas?

OP posts:
LadyCatStark · 09/12/2020 11:47

@bellinisurge

I'm in Manchester. Many boroughs in Manchester are in a better state infection wise than London. And all are heading down.

We were treated disgracefully before- with no promise of financial help. It's all very well saying the North South divide is a meaningless analogy. But it doesn't feel bloody meaningless here.

London should go into Tier 3 now.

@bellinisurge the only people claiming there’s no north/ south divide are Southeners...
Haventbeenthere · 09/12/2020 12:05

@Parker231

It’s the same with Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle and Birmingham. All huge cities but all in tier 3 and not split into boroughs or councils.
I'm a northerner living in London and I agree that some northern cities and towns have been treated disgracefully & understand the resentment, but London has a much bigger economy and population, so putting the whole city into Tier 3 will have a huge economic impact on the whole country, not just the south-east. Even keeping a few London boroughs in Tier 2 could help many businesses and employers survive and lessen the economic damage UK-wide. To put it into perspective, Newcastle's population is about the same size as the 20th largest London borough.

There's a big difference in Covid rates between London boroughs (80.2 cases per 100k lowest, up to 346 per 100k) and some of the lowest rates are in the boroughs with the biggest economic impact. I just don't think it should be about being fair and London suffering as much as the rest of the country - If we can keep even 10 boroughs in Tier 2, surely it's economic madness not to do that?

Having said that, I don't know how close London hospitals are to capacity, and hospitals often serve more than one borough, so it's not going to be as simple as looking at the rates for each borough. But I've read that London's NHS capacity is higher than the UK average because it's designed to cope with residents plus 2 million extra people a day (tourists, business visitors, etc) who are mostly staying away atm, so apparently that is helping with Covid capacity.

littleowl1 · 09/12/2020 12:06

I run Covid Messenger which I started over the summer and I have just finished building a new local coronavirus dashboard on www.covidmessenger.com providing a summary of cases in each district council in England - compiled daily from the governments data release on the uk gov dashboard.

You can see all the London boroughs on there. It's a handy way to keep an eye on what is going on locally. I will be adding regional hospital admissions and covid occupied beds soon too as I feel that is a good guide for whether areas move tiers.

I live in a tier 3 council area with "fairly low" cases but I have heard anecdotally from friends in the NHS that hospitals in neighbouring councils are full (and those not full are filling fast) so hospitals in our council are on standby to take the overflow. So sad and worrying.

Many are frustrated we are in tier 3 given cases here are relatively low, but having heard these insights, I do now understand why we are tier 3 - I guess the reality is that we are a high risk area and cases could increase very quickly.

Anyway, I digress. You are most welcome to use the dashboard if you find it helpful. You can drill down to any council and can download the dashboard as Excel etc should you wish to analyse yourself etc.

It's all on www.covidmessenger.com.

AcornAutumn · 09/12/2020 12:08

@Calmandmeasured1

It should but it depends on whether the PM can cope with the backbench revolt if he does the right thing.
I don't think there'll be one - it's all hot air.

The Mayor "wants" London in Tier 3.

ConfusedcomMum · 09/12/2020 12:34

Hopefully

Delatron · 09/12/2020 13:06

Thanks @littleowl1for all the work you do compiling these stats. Hospital admissions are useful and understanding capacity.

No it’s not fair that London may escape tier 3 even with high infection rates but if we understand more about hospital capacity here then that helps.

Icanseeclearlynow12 · 09/12/2020 13:12

Long time lurker! I'm wondering if Bedfordshire may go into tier 3, Luton has high rates, we live close by and numbers are rising again after falling during lockdown although nowhere near Luton's numbers

Icanseeclearlynow12 · 09/12/2020 13:13

Sorry just commented on wrong thread, you can tell I don't post often 🤣

FeelingBIue · 09/12/2020 13:13

The Mayor "wants" London in Tier 3.

Changed his mind again then, Mayor Khan always looking for any excuse for a bit of media coverage. The same Mayor that when the first lockdown came didn't agree with the government's definition of essential workers so cut tube capacity down to 15% causing huge overcrowding which extended far beyond the normal rush hour and probably contributed to London's surge in cases.

The same Mayor who when we came out of lockdown demanded hospitality should close and when London went into tier two thus closing hospitality then demanded hospitality should be re-opened.

Should the whole of London go into tier 3? Why? The data doesn't support it. London covid rates are no worse now than back in mid November when the talk was about London rates being relatively low.

Based on recent data should some London boroughs go into tier 3? I think there's a good argument for that if hospital capacity becomes an issue and it would have the advantage of giving those mostly deprived Boroughs in East London extra funding to deal with the virus.

Delatron · 09/12/2020 13:25

They might just put Luton in to tier 3.

I’m near Slough, with a Slough postcode but it was recognised it was just Slough that had the problem.

LaLoose · 09/12/2020 13:41

@haventbeenthere
I'm a northerner living in London and I agree that some northern cities and towns have been treated disgracefully & understand the resentment, but London has a much bigger economy and population, so putting the whole city into Tier 3 will have a huge economic impact on the whole country, not just the south-east.

Completely agree with this, but also worried about the prospect of splitting London into different tiers. Central Londoners (and I'm one of them): where do you think your cleaners live? Street sweepers? Delivery men? Probably Havering, even if you don't happen to know where that is.

OneForMeToo · 09/12/2020 13:41

Just fence London off and be done with it. They can have their freedom inside but they have to stay inside. Simpsons dome style Grin

AcornAutumn · 09/12/2020 13:43

Feeling that’s a partial list of the reasons I put “want” in inverted commas Grin

AllTheUserNamesAreTaken · 09/12/2020 13:51

Thanks ceeveebee for posting the link last night. Just come back on now and seen it

FeelingBIue · 09/12/2020 14:01

@OneForMeToo

Just fence London off and be done with it. They can have their freedom inside but they have to stay inside. Simpsons dome style Grin
That's an excellent idea. Barrier round the whole of the M25 or just the South/North Circular though?

The Mayor could then bring forward his plan to extend the congestion charge to the whole of London and raise additional revenue by raising fines for cars who defy the rules and cross county lines.

Jourdain11 · 09/12/2020 14:08

[quote LaLoose]@haventbeenthere
I'm a northerner living in London and I agree that some northern cities and towns have been treated disgracefully & understand the resentment, but London has a much bigger economy and population, so putting the whole city into Tier 3 will have a huge economic impact on the whole country, not just the south-east.

Completely agree with this, but also worried about the prospect of splitting London into different tiers. Central Londoners (and I'm one of them): where do you think your cleaners live? Street sweepers? Delivery men? Probably Havering, even if you don't happen to know where that is.[/quote]
It's a reasonable point, but I'm assuming that all of the above come into the category of people who cannot work from home, so they'd be allowed to travel within zones for work purposes. Ditto teachers, NHS workers, shop staff etc.

And tbh, although many might be travelling outside their borough to work (i.e. a cleaner in Brent working in Barnet and Camden or a teacher from Ealing working in H&F) I think there would be far fewer actually travelling outside their zones. It's unlikely, f.i., that a TA from Bromley would be working at a school in Haringey.

AcornAutumn · 09/12/2020 14:35

It's unlikely, f.i., that a TA from Bromley would be working at a school in Haringey.

Is it? Everyone I know seems to end up working miles away from where they live.

Care provision would also be an issue. I've been very worried about what they'll do with public transport because of mum. I suppose we could pay for a carer but others can't and it's a grim prospect.

Jourdain11 · 09/12/2020 14:45

I can only go by my experience - but most that I know who work in schools, healthcare, etc. seem to work if not in their local area, then not too far away. Partly because of the hours, I guess. But in any case, if they divided London into zones, these workers would have to be allowed to travel (key workers and/or cannot work from home) even in T3 areas.

FWIW, I struggle to see how T3 would have an impact at this point anyway, other than financially.

bellinisurge · 09/12/2020 14:54

Johnson's likely plan: Put London in Tier 3 and spend the money it refused to spend on the North bolstering London's economy. And come up with some of the usual bullshit about why it is doing so and why it shouldn't support the North. Probably using Latin.

Waxonwaxoff0 · 09/12/2020 14:54

You are allowed to travel into other tiers for work and always have been.

LadyCatStark · 09/12/2020 15:11

@bellinisurge

Johnson's likely plan: Put London in Tier 3 and spend the money it refused to spend on the North bolstering London's economy. And come up with some of the usual bullshit about why it is doing so and why it shouldn't support the North. Probably using Latin.
Not to mention the rapid testing we were promised that hasn’t happened.
JacobReesMogadishu · 09/12/2020 17:28

I blame Kay Burley! 😁

TooManyDogsandChildren · 09/12/2020 17:41

I assumed LaLoose's point was that it is a nonsense to pronounce eg Camden will remain in Tier 2 while eg Haringey will move to Tier 3 because of the flow of people from other boroughs in and out.

FWIW I think that is correct, a fair proportion of Londoners do move around London. My DS1 has always travelled right across London for his work in the hospitality sector and when I was a TA I did the same and so did all but one of the teachers I worked with. In the days when I had a cleaner she also seemed to spend her time travelling across London to various clients.

tootyfruitypickle · 09/12/2020 17:45

I’ve got front row tickets for Les Mis in early jan.
Keep the theatres open please Boris if you’re reading.